Welcome Back from Recess!
Welcome back from recess! We took advantage of the past few weeks to check in with congressional staffers and other political insiders to get a better sense of where things might be headed this fall. Based on our intel gathering efforts, below is a high-level overview of our understanding of legislative priorities for this fall:
Budget/Appropriations: While a budget agreement has been reached and signed into law, the Senate “still has work to do.” The Senate Appropriations Committee will markup all 12 of its appropriations bills over three weeks in September. The remaining challenges seem to be where the $5 billion the president is seeking for his border wall will come from (the $27 billion plus up for nondefense spending, Labor-HHS, or Homeland Security) and Democrats’ interest in potentially trying to further restrict the administrations’ authority to reprogram funds already appropriated by Congress. On Capitol Hill, there seems to be growing consensus the “do no harm” approach would be to pass at least one CR, potentially through November 22 or December 6.
Gun Control: Following the mass shootings in El Paso and Dayton, there is a sense the House is likely to do more on gun control. More specifically, there appears to be an appetite to ensure “bad people can’t access guns.” Legislation that addresses criminal background checks, red flags, and other “no fly, no buy” prohibitions on gun sales appears to be “fair game” and something moderate Democrats in red districts could vote for. On the contrary, legislation that includes a “ban” of any type of gun (assault weapons or otherwise) could be “trouble” for moderates in the Democratic caucus. The idea is that the House will pass “what is popular” on gun control and send it to the Senate, where it is unlikely to move.
Nominations: Throughout the recess, we have consistently heard from Democratic Senate staffers that Leader McConnell is eager for the Senate to continue to process nominations, with a focus on executive branch and conservative judicial nominees.
Oversight and Investigations: Whereas the Senate will spend considerable time nominations through the end of the year, we anticipate the House will similarly continue its oversight and investigative efforts. We expect the House to renew its examination of Administration regulatory and deregulatory activities while also determining whether and how to pursue articles of impeachment. Currently, more than half of House Democrats support impeaching the president or at least pursuing an inquiry. The House Judiciary Committee will vote this week to define the impeachment probe, and Speaker Pelosi, who we think still believes the public is not ready to remove the president, will have to handle the process.
NDAA: HASC and SASC staff began NDAA pre-conference meetings on August 19 and were targeting September 6 to turn in open item lists to members. HASC and SASC members are tentatively scheduled to meet on the NDAA on September 11. Most staff we have spoken with have told us to expect the NDAA to “move quickly once folks are back in town.” However, committee staff is being more cautious, advising personal offices to be prepared for NDAA action, although a final vote could slip into October. Regardless, it seems like the target date for wrapping up the conference report is the September 30 end of the fiscal year. Since “most of the outside stuff appears in the House bill,” conventional thinking is the final NDAA could look more like the Senate bill.
PFAS: As House and Senate negotiators continue looking for a compromise on the NDAA, per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) provisions will continue to receive significant attention, both within those debates and as a part of separate efforts in other committees.
Trade: Trade staffers have been busy over the August recess working on USMCA, the Japan agreement, Chinese tariff and trade issues, and France’s tech tax. Whether USMCA gets across the finish line is yet to be determined. Speaker Pelosi had Rep. Neal and eight other members form a working group to coordinate with the administration on key outstanding issues related to labor, the environment, the medical sector, and improved enforcement. The working group has made some good progress over the recess, but is waiting to see “how much the administration is willing to give.” Timing remains uncertain, but USMCA is unlikely to get done as quickly as some downtown have hinted. In addition to the substantive issues with USMCA, implementation legislation still needs to be written.
Healthcare: Surprise medical billing and prescription drug pricing are two healthcare policy issues that are very likely to receive attention during the fall. There is broad bipartisan consensus that patients should be held harmless when they receive surprise bills. The Senate HELP and House Energy and Commerce Committees have marked up their versions of legislation, but House Ways and Means and Education and Labor have not yet produced bills, and it remains to be seen how the versions will be reconciled with one another. The Senate Finance and House Energy and Commerce Committee have both marked up drug pricing packages. Speaker Pelosi is likely to introduce her proposal when Congress returns, and Ways and Means will need to act on a bill. Addressing Affordable Care Act tax implementation delays, such as the Cadillac tax, medical device tax, and HIT, are also high on the agenda.
Infrastructure: Throughout the recess, we’ve heard conflicting opinions about the prospects for an infrastructure or even surface reauthorization bill this year. For example, one House staffer told us any transportation bill is “unlikely to get across the finish line.” Meanwhile, a Senate staffer seemed to think that something will get done on surface transportation this year, especially as the current authorization included the Amtrak reauthorization and there are other transportation safety agencies Congress is inclined to reauthorize. However, with some authorizations not running out until next year, the pressure is not as elevated as for other items requiring floor time. Furthermore, some staffers have told us they believe congressional Democrats will be unwilling to give the administration any small transportation win so long as the president remains unopen to a larger infrastructure bill.
Tax Extenders: Congress is likely to address expired and expiring temporary tax extenders sometime before the end of the year. The Senate Finance Committee began releasing the reports from its bipartisan task forces before the recess, covering jobs and community development, health, energy, business cost recovery, individual benefits, and disaster relief. Earlier in the summer, the House Ways and Means Committee advanced extenders legislation along with a bill expanding refundable tax credits. But next steps remain unclear, except to say that Congress is most likely to finalize its work on tax extenders at the very end of 2019. Separately, the House Ways and Means Committee is committed to moving forward with a broad clean energy tax bill this year, with the goal of releasing language in October. Members will begin discussing the package in earnest soon after they return, but the top four Democratic priorities are offshore wind, storage, transferability, and the EV tax credit. Committee Democrats believe they have some leverage over Senator Grassley on the matters because of his interests in biodiesel and wind.
Energy and Environment: Much of the congressional action centered around energy and environment issues this fall serves as a marker in the sand for post-2020 legislative efforts, from a more robust climate bill to a Clean Energy Standard. We’re expecting to see a flurry of activity on committees of jurisdiction as well as the House Select Committee on the Climate Crisis and the Senate Democrats’ Special Committee on the Climate Crisis, and four bills will be on the House floor this week alone. In the meantime, knowing that their time together is term-limited, Senate Energy and Natural Resources leadership Sens. Murkowski and Manchin have expressed interest in pursuing an incremental piece of energy innovation legislation, that could be formed by packaging together industrial technology, energy efficiency, advanced nuclear, battery storage, CCS, and potentially some transportation legislation. Additionally, the Environment and Public Works Committee’s draft highway bill (S. 2302) includes some climate resiliency and adaptation language that could find a path forward at some point this year, particularly with hurricane season in our midst.
Privacy: We understand that just before the recess, Sen. Cantwell shared with her Democratic committee colleagues a “one-page outline” of what her privacy bill would be, but it was very high-level and did not include legislative language or a sense of where negotiations stand with Sen. Wicker. While there is only “a limited amount of sharing taking place,” we are hearing reports that talks between Sens. Wicker and Cantwell on privacy are ongoing. There are varying perspectives on the chances the Wicker/Cantwell talks produce a bill. For example, those who are a bit more optimistic have said things like “all of the fault lines are known” and “Leader Schumer is doing the right thing keeping all of the appropriate ranking members involved” to boost the chances for a bipartisan markup this fall. On the flip side, there are Democratic Senate staffers who are telling us they are under the impression Sens. Wicker and Cantwell “might not be too far down the road.” From these staffers’ perspectives, there are still “big issues (i.e. private right of action and preemption) that need to be resolved and are intertwined.”
STELA Reauthorization: We are hearing from both Senate Commerce and House E&C Democratic staff that STELA reauthorization is the next big agenda item in the telecom space. While it is possible STELA is not reauthorized before its expiration at the end of the year, consensus seems to be letting STELA expire would likely lead to Congress being blamed for future blackouts. This, combined with the fact that STELA is viewed as “a vehicle for doing other things,” could boost the chances of STELA reauthorization this year, although key telecom staffers have advised us to expect this year’s STELA bill to be “a Charlie Brown Christmas tree with a few ornaments.”
Robocalls: Telecom staffers seem confident that robocalls legislation will reach the president’s desk before the end of the year, as the House and Senate bills are “actively in conference.” We are hearing the efforts to reconcile differences could be completed soon and staff is cautiously optimistic a bill could reach the president’s desk as soon as this fall.
Other “Cats and Dogs”: Aside from the issues specifically noted above, there are a number of expiring provisions or high visibility issues that could get attention in Congress this fall. These issues might include: the Ebola Eradication Act; the SECURE Act; election security legislation; the higher education reauthorization; the pipeline safety reauthorization; work on other expiring provisions, such as the National Flood Insurance Program, TANF & SNAP, Ex-Im Bank reauthorization, EB-5 work visa, Secure Rural Schools Act, health extenders, and the already expired VAWA; and the FISA reauthorization.
With the third Democratic primary debate scheduled to take place this week, the return of Congress will also bring the return of 2020 Congressional and presidential politics. While we shared a political update with you earlier in the recess, we believe we will continue to see Leader McConnell and Speaker Pelosi engage strategically this fall as they attempt to protect their respective Senate Republican and House Democratic majorities. In Leader McConnell’s case, we can expect his leadership choices to reflect that he is up for reelection in 2020.
Based on our observations and our conversations over the past few weeks, we believe there will continue to be attention paid to Democratic “frontliners” (i.e. those incumbent candidates who already know they will or could potentially see a primary from the left). We believe the DCCC will also need to continue to be strategic in how it prioritizes its resources, especially in the face of difficult choices between maintaining and shaping the Democratic majority in the House. In our efforts to get to know Democratic freshmen members in the House, it appears these new members are already making a conscious effort to localize their efforts and are making beneficial gains in fundraising. It also remains to be seen how Democrats might capitalize on open seats, with additional retirement announcements expected this fall.
In the Senate, we are getting the sense Democratic incumbents are “in pretty good shape.” However, we continue to watch Sens. Jones’, Peters’, and Shaheen’s races closely. Republican incumbents might have a bit more to worry about, with recent polls suggesting that Sens. Collins, Gardner, and McSally could have tough reelections ahead.
With presidential primaries still months away, we are also watching to see how the races shape up this fall. While recent polls suggest that Biden, Warren, Sanders, or Harris could all potentially win in a matchup against President Trump at this moment in time, it truly feels like the Democratic nomination is still up for grabs. With no significant improvements in the president’s popularity, the looming threat of economic recession, a number of recent flip flops on policy, and his continued use of Twitter as a means of policymaking, it also remains to be seen how President Trump might fare heading into the GOP convention next year.
If Plurus Strategies can be helpful in advancing your policy interests this fall, please give us a call! Additionally, as we near the new year, we will also increasingly begin to share insights on 2020 politics.