What We're Watching in 2022
Appropriations
There are three potential resolutions to the ongoing FY22 appropriations discussions: a government shutdown, a year-long continuing resolution (CR), or an omnibus package. Given the expected political blowback, neither party is keen to have the government shut down, and we’re of the belief that the impending retirement of Chairman Leahy (D-VT) and Ranking Member Shelby (R-AL) will provide extra motivation before the February 18 expiration of the CR to work out one final omnibus with them at the helm.
Build Back Better
After Sen. Manchin (D-WV) expressed reservations about the Build Back Better Act late in 2021, Democratic leadership reiterated their intention to move the bill forward as quickly as possible. With midterm elections coming at the end of the year, Democrats will continue to push for passage, even if that requires that some programs (e.g., Medicare hearing coverage, expanded tax credits for union-made electric vehicles, etc.) be trimmed or cut to satisfy moderate members.
Voting Rights
As momentum has stalled on the effort to pass the Build Back Better Act, attention has shifted towards voting rights legislation. Democrats have had little success attracting Republican support for measures such as the John Lewis Voting Rights Act, and many within the caucus view it as integral if they want to retain control of the House and the Senate. The Senate filibuster has attracted attention as a rule that could be amended or abolished by Democrats as they seek passage of voting rights legislation, though such a move could poison the well for bipartisanship on other priorities.
China
Passage of substantive legislation to respond to China’s growing influence on the global stage has been an area of bipartisan interest in recent years. On this issue, the Senate passed the United States Innovation and Competition Act – a top priority for Majority Leader Chuck Schumer – and the House passed a pair of science-related bills; expect the two chambers to work towards a compromise to address key issues such as the semiconductor shortage.
Nominations
A combination of limited floor time and several members – Sens. Cruz (R-TX), Hawley (R-MO), and Rubio (R-FL) – holding up foreign service and national security nominees has led to numerous nominations languishing without a vote. Early in January, President Biden renominated several key posts that remain vacant, hoping to restart the nominations process.
COVID
COVID has remained a persistent threat to the domestic and global economy, despite widespread efforts to encourage vaccination and other precautionary measures. With the Omicron variant spreading rapidly – as well as potential variants in the future – the virus may become a long-term fixture affecting the health and commerce landscapes, as well as the day-to-day operations on the Hill.
Regulatory Action
As with any election year, the prospects for legislating as November approaches tend to dwindle. Accordingly, the Administration will move its focus to putting its mark on the regulatory landscape, with significant action in the pipeline to address issues ranging from climate change to surprise medical billing. All the while, departments and agencies will be racing to hire enough staff to implement the infrastructure bill.
Roe v. Wade
In late 2021, the Supreme Court heard arguments about a Mississippi law that bans abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization. Since the Roe v. Wade decision, the Court has upheld that women have a constitutional right to an abortion in the first two trimesters of pregnancy when a fetus is unable to survive outside the womb, but Mississippi is asking that the abortion question return to the states. A decision is expected in the summer, and it could have a ripple effect on Congressional action and the November election.
Midterm Elections
The November midterm elections are a looming shadow over upcoming legislative activity, with Democrats hopeful to prove they can govern effectively and Republicans eager to retake one or both chambers. Historically, midterms following one-party rule have been difficult for the majority, and many politicos are anticipating a similar result. One potential wildcard is the currently ongoing Congressional redistricting, with Dave Wasserman of The Cook Political Report writing that the House is on track to have a map slightly more favorable to Democrats than in past decades.
Inflation
Despite early assurances from economists that inflation would be a transitory phenomenon, increased prices have stuck around longer than many anticipated. The Federal Reserve has indicated that it will be taking a number of steps – e.g., increasing interest rates, expediting the tapering of their asset-purchases, etc. – in an effort to combat inflation and ensure that it’s not a long-term economic feature.