Senate and House Committee Musical Chairs in Anticipation of the 118th Congress

Last Updated: September 14 2022

At Plurus Strategies, we are not only policy experts but also big political junkies. Today marks 55 days until the midterm elections. Although the American public may not be fully tuned in to midterm season yet, we are closely watching how the composition of the Senate and House, and more specifically, committee membership and leadership, may change in the 118th Congress. 470 seats in the Congress are up for election on November 8, 2022. As of today, 39 Democrats and 30 Republicans will not be returning for the 118th Congress. 

Given today’s politics, the Hill is a very different place than what it used to be. Forecasting key positions depends on both the results of the election and the political environment, which will continue to evolve leading up to the midterms. We view our documents as just a snapshot of the current landscape. We also wanted to make clear that our analyses are by no means an attempt to predict who will win and lose in November. In the interest of eliminating political bias, we have tried to rely on major election forecasting organizations, including 270 to Win, Real Clear Politics, the Cook Political Report, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Even across these ratings, there are some discrepancies.

Senate Musical Chairs 

The current balance of the Senate sits at a thin margin of 50 Republicans to 50 Democrats (including two Independents who caucus with the Democrats). 14 Democrat-controlled seats and 21 Republican-controlled seats are up for election, including a special election to fill the final four years of Sen. Jim Inhofe's (R-OK) six-year term. 

As of now, Senate Democrats are most focused on defending four seats, none of which are in states Donald Trump won in 2020. Senate Republicans are most focused on defending five seats, two of which are in states President Joe Biden won in the presidential election, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. At this point, most political pundits believe control of the Senate is in play. Republicans could retake control with a net gain of one or more seats. 

Our Senate slide deck identifies all the Senators who are in cycle and codes each race as toss-up, lean Democratic/Republican, and likely Democratic/Republican. Members who are not color-coded are not currently in cycle. Additionally, our Senate document identifies the six Senators who have announced retirements. 

Our Senate analysis outlines various scenarios for which Senators may serve as the chairs or ranking members of the standing Senate committees in the 118th Congress. The Senate has traditionally handed out gavels based on seniority. Next year, both term limits and a potential change in control of the chamber could lead to some notable changes. 

Senate Republicans have term limits of six years as chair and six years as ranking member. In other words, a Republican Senator can serve a cumulative six years as chairman plus a cumulative six years as ranking member of the same committee. Republican Senators can only use seniority to bump sitting chairs or ranking members when the control of the Senate switches parties. This is especially important this year, with several election forecasting organizations projecting an increased likelihood that the Senate flips to Republican control. Senate Democrats do not have term limits. 

Please click here to access our full Senate analysis. 

House Musical Chairs 

There are currently 220 Democrats, 210 Republicans, and three vacancies in the House. Special elections will be held throughout the rest of 2022 to fill vacancies in the current Congress. All 435 seats will be up for election. 218 seats are needed to win control of the chamber. In the 2020 midterm elections, Democrats maintained a majority, winning 222 seats to Republicans' 213. Democrats flipped three seats, and Republicans flipped 15, including one held by a Libertarian. 

Our House presentation identifies all Members who will not be returning in the 118th Congress, including those retiring, running for higher office, and, of particular importance to this cycle, those not returning due to redistricting. Because the margins were close, Republicans thought they would secure a majority on new allocations of House seats alone, but apportionment did not play out as expected. Republicans then sought to use redistricting to strengthen their position and successfully altered maps in Texas, Georgia, and Florida. New York's maps passed with a Democratic lean, but a court challenge changed the maps that will be used in November. Democrats saw some redistricting victories in other states. New Jersey's commission voted in favor of Democrats' proposed maps, which bolstered incumbents and reduced the number of toss-up seats. Democrats also gained ground in other states, including Illinois, Nevada, New Mexico, and Oregon. As of today, there are six more Democratic-leaning seats and six fewer highly competitive seats. Still, others remain in litigation. The political environment can change wildly between now and November. Inflation, COVID, and Ukraine are the issues in voters' minds, and it is hard to predict what issues will dominate when the voters go to the polls. 

House race ratings are updated frequently, but our analysis marks the tightest House races as toss-ups and more competitive races as lean Democrat or Republican. Those running for a different office have an asterisk following their name. Members who are facing a fellow incumbent due to redistricting have two asterisks after their names. Races that are not color-coded are viewed as likely safe seats. As candidates get ready for the November ballot, it remains an open question whether the trifecta of apportionment, redistricting, and the political environment will align for Democrats this fall. History has shown that the party out of power often performs well, and although general elections are over six months away, House Republicans appear to be leading and are favored to win control of the chamber. 

Our House analysis also examines who may be the chairs and ranking members of the standing House committees in the 118th Congress. These positions tend to credit seniority, particularly among Democrats. Other factors are considered, including term limits, party fundraising, and support among party leadership. Generally speaking, it is up to each caucus and committee to determine which Member gets the top spot on each committee. 

House Republicans have term limits of six cumulative years as chair and ranking member. In other words, six years as chairman constitutes a term limit, but so does four years as chairman and two years as ranking member on the same committee. House Democrats do not have term limits, although there is speculation that a GOP-controlled chamber could consider imposing universal changes and impose limits. 

Please click here to access our full House analysis. 

What’s Next? 

Of course, November 8 is still several months away and anything can happen between now and then. We will continue to update our musical chairs documents as we approach the midterms. We also intend to expand these analyses after the election to reflect which Members will not be returning in the 118th Congress, how committee ratios may change, and which Members may be most at risk for getting bumped off committees. While it is unclear which party will be wielding gavels in each chamber in the new Congress, we will be watching closely and look forward to providing additional political analysis.