Plurus Strategies Weekly Update: KBJ Confirmation, USICA/America COMPETES Conference, COVID Aid & Other Activity in Washington
SCOTUS Confirmation
A final vote on Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson’s Supreme Court (SCOTUS) nomination has been one of several items coming down to the wire as Congress barrels towards the two-week Easter recess. As expected, on Monday the Senate Judiciary Committee reported Judge Jackson’s nomination on a tie 11-11 vote down party lines. The committee vote was briefly delayed due to Sen. Alex Padilla’s (D-CA) flight to Washington arriving late.
The tie committee vote meant that Judge Jackson’s nomination required a discharge petition to come to the floor, marking the first time this additional procedural step has been required for a SCOTUS nominee. The motion to discharge Judge Jackson’s nomination was approved with 53 votes, with Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME), Mitt Romney (R-UT), and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) joining all Senate Democrats to advance consideration of her nomination. As of Monday night, it became clear that all three Republicans would eventually vote to confirm Judge Jackson, notching the White House a bipartisan vote on the first-ever Black woman and public defender SCOTUS nominee. Support from three Republicans also provided Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) a little wiggle room in case of last-minute Democratic absences, especially in the aftermath of the Gridiron dinner becoming a COVID super spreader event.
Last night the Senate reached an agreement to expedite votes on Judge Jackson’s nomination today with a final vote anticipated this afternoon. Had Republicans insisted on using all 30 hours of post-cloture debate, the final vote on her confirmation could have been pushed to tomorrow. It seems that recess jet fumes may be working their magic. While Justice Stephen Breyer will not retire until this summer, Judge Jackson will be positioned to fill his seat on the bench immediately upon his departure.
War in Ukraine
Yet another item hanging over Congress heading into the recess has been a package of House-passed bills that would repeal normal trade relations with Russia and Belarus and codify President Joe Biden’s executive order (EO) banning imports of Russian oil and gas. House leaders have been calling on their Senate counterparts to expedite consideration of the bills they approved weeks ago on significantly bipartisan margins, but Leader Schumer was forced to cave to Sen. Rand Paul’s (R-KY) demand to tweak language around human rights sanctions. Additionally, Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) required a vote on legislation that would establish a lend-lease program for Ukraine. The Senate approved his bill unanimously last night. This morning, the Senate unanimously passed the two-bill package. Because of changes to the bill, the package will be sent back to the House for another vote. House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) has indicated that vote could come as soon as today.
Congress is making progress on other Ukraine-related matters. On Tuesday, the House passed a non-binding resolution calling on NATO to continue supporting Ukraine. The House also considered Reps. Gregory Meek’s (D-NY) and Mike McCaul’s (R-TX) Ukraine Invasion War Crimes Deterrence and Accountability Act on the suspension calendar following passage of similar legislation in the Senate. The House Foreign Affairs Committee marked up several Ukraine-related bills that would exclude Russia’s participation in the G7, enhance Congressional oversight of Russian sanctions, counter Russian activities in Africa, and require a working group to address semiconductor supply chain issues caused by the Russian invasion. Sens. Ron Wyden (R-OR) and Rob Portman (R-OH) officially introduced their bill that has been circulating in draft form for weeks to deny U.S. tax credits and deductions to companies operating in Russia and Belarus. The House Homeland Security Committee also held a hearing postponed from last week on securing critical infrastructure against Russian cyber threats.
Throughout this week, the international community was forced to consider new actions to punish Russia for mounting evidence of war crimes committed in Ukraine. Ghastly reports from Bucha and other suburbs of Kyiv previously occupied by Russian forces unveiled mass graves and civilian victims of torture. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, including as part an address to the U.N. Security Council, characterized the atrocities as genocide, while Russian President Vladimir Putin has denied the killings, claiming that they were staged.
Late Friday, the Pentagon announced $300 million in lethal military assistance and communications equipment, medical supplies, and drones for Ukraine. On Tuesday, the administration authorized a $100 million presidential drawdown of security assistance to provide Ukraine with more Javelins. This brings total U.S. security assistance to Ukraine to $2.4 billion since the beginning of the Biden Administration and more than $1.7 billion since the start of the war. The administration also announced new sanctions targeting tech companies, financial institutions, and individuals, including Putin’s daughters, along with an EO banning new investment in Russia. Additionally, the Treasury Department halted dollar debt payments from Russian government accounts at U.S. financial institutions, and the Department of Justice (DOJ) announced its first criminal charges against a Russian oligarch since the start of the invasion.
While the international community continues to ramp up sanctions and military assistance for Ukraine, experts are increasingly predicting the situation in Ukraine may be transitioning into a prolonged conflict. Even though some Russian forces have retreated away from Kyiv, military analysts predict this may only ramp up fighting in eastern Ukraine, and that the Ukrainian capital could remain at risk.
USICA/America COMPETES Act Conference
As if Congress did not already have enough items to check off its to do list before starting the recess, the House and the Senate remain on track to formally kick off the USICA/America COMPETES Act conference this week. We are hearing an announcement on conferees is imminent. We have been told that 11 committees will be involved in the conference. While Republicans had been pushing for equal representation of Democrats and Republicans on the conference committee, the rumor is that there will likely be two Democrats and one Republican named for each committee, probably the full committee chair, the full committee ranking member, and one subcommittee chair.
We continue to expect a challenging conference process to iron out differences between the chambers’ respective research and development (R&D) bills targeting U.S. competitiveness with China and funding new incentives for the domestic semiconductor industry. Bickering is likely over trade and foreign policy provisions. We also anticipate heated discussion on items not initially included in either bill, such as the FABS Act and green card provisions, such as the Jumpstart Our Legal Immigration System Act, which could be candidates to get parachuted into negotiations. The hope is that all these issues can be resolved in a final conference report by Memorial Day.
COVID Aid
While there had been hope that Congress would clear another COVID aid package before departing for the recess, it now seems a Senate vote on the recently clinched agreement on additional COVID relief will be bumped to after the recess, and perhaps into May. The delays come as cases are once again on the rise in DC, with several high-profile Members of Congress and the Biden Administration, including House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, and Attorney General Merrick Garland announcing positive tests this week.
On Monday, Leader Schumer and Sen. Romney announced a $10 billion deal on supplemental COVID appropriations. The bill includes funding for testing, therapeutics, and vaccine distribution. Roughly half this funding could be required for Pfizer’s antiviral pills already on order. Notably missing from the agreement is global pandemic aid, which was scrapped due to lack of agreement on how to pay for it.
The $10 billion bill is offset by the reallocation of dollars from previous tranches of COVID aid, including $2.31 billion from an aviation manufacturing program, $1.93 billion from a Small Business Administration (SBA) program to support closed business venues, and $500 million in unspent assistance for higher education institutions. The agreement leaves funding for state and local governments untouched, given that the proposed redistribution of these funds is what infuriated Democrats to the point that a $15.6 billion COVID proposal was yanked from the fiscal year 2022 (FY22) omnibus. Going forward, we will be keeping a close eye on whether this tactic of reallocating previously distributed funds might create a new precedent for pay-fors.
We especially wanted to make sure you saw the COVID package includes language that would permit cities, counties, states, tribes, and localities to repurpose funds that were previously allocated for potential new broadband projects. However, the legislation also makes clear that any new broadband deployment must take place under the guardrails included in the bipartisan infrastructure framework (BIF).
This week has been a bit of a nail biter, with whip counts and procedural timing already presenting snags in Democratic leadership’s plan to pass the COVID package before Easter break. The entire package now seems to be hung up on an immigration issue. On Tuesday, Republicans blocked advancing the relief bill without an agreement to vote on President Biden’s decision to end the pandemic policy that leveraged Title 42 to expel migrants and asylum seekers at the border. Identifying a path forward has become more complicated by today’s introduction of bipartisan legislation to prevent the Biden Administration from revoking the policy without a plan to secure the border ahead of an anticipated surge in migrants. The logjam puts Leader Schumer in a bind, as several of the most vulnerable Members of his caucus (Sens. Mark Kelly (D-AZ), Raphael Warnock (D-GA), Maggie Hassan (D-NH), and Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV)), among other moderate Democrats who are not in cycle (Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV), Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ), and Jon Tester (D-MT)) agree with Republicans on Title 42. The policy is scheduled to be rescinded on May 23.
Even if the Senate can find a way to move the bill forward, we have been picking up reports that House Democrats may not be fully bought into the Senate deal. For one, there seems to be deep disappointment that global assistance was cut from the bill. If the Senate succeeds in attaching Title 42 language to the bill, it could kill the bill in the House. Democrats are also discouraged by the relatively small size of the package and the fact that other priorities, such as more restaurant relief, were excluded. The House did, however, pass a standalone measure that would provide an additional $42 billion in relief for restaurants and $13 billion in additional assistance for other industries disproportionately impacted by the pandemic earlier today.
While Congress has yet to pass the $10 billion COVID relief package, the fact that it falls far short of the $22.5 billion request made by the White House has already prompted discussion of a follow-on package of COVID assistance that might focus on global vaccination campaigns and international food assistance. Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE) is already working in the Senate to drum up support for another bill, while Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-CT) has given such an effort her blessing in the House. The administration is messaging that the $10 billion may be exhausted by late spring/early summer. We continue to hear that additional COVID relief, and in particular the international assistance piece, could ride on the next Ukraine supplemental.
BBB/Reconciliation
We have been picking up that the next work period could be “do or die” for Democrats to move some form of Build Back Better (BBB) via reconciliation. Consensus appears to be growing that if Democrats cannot cobble together a proposal that unites moderates and progressives before the Memorial Day recess, then the window before the midterms might close. There also seems to be growing wariness that not getting something done would put a nail in the coffin for Democrats in what historical trends already suggest will be a tough midterm election fight. Sen. Manchin has hinted, however, that he might be comfortable allowing reconciliation to slip all the way to the work period between July 4 and the August recess.
Substantively, most Democrats believe there are still enough things the party can agree on, such as reducing prescription drug costs and boosting clean energy, to pass a narrow bill. At the strategic level, Democrats of all factions appear to not only acknowledge, but accept that Sen. Manchin will dictate a lot of what will be any reconciliation measure. For example, progressives might have to swallow an all-of-the-above energy component, rather than policy provisions exclusively focused on climate change and clean energy. We have also observed offices increasingly interested in rolling up their sleeves and getting to work on Sen. Manchin’s other priorities of tax reform and deficit reduction. Each week we seem to come up with a new name for BBB. This week’s might be “Build Back Center.”
Political Tidbits
Retirements
After almost four decades in office, Rep. Fred Upton (R-MI) has announced his retirement. Known for his tenure as House Energy and Commerce Committee chair, Rep. Upton gained recent notoriety for being one of ten House Republicans to vote in favor of former President Donald Trump’s impeachment and one of 13 to vote for the BIF. His retirement means half of the House Republicans who voted for the infrastructure law will not be running for re-election to the 118th Congress. However, only three of the 19 Republican Senators who supported the BIF, Sens. Roy Blunt (R-MO), Richard Burr (R-NC), and Rob Portman (R-OH) will be retiring. Rep. Upton leaves open his top spot on the Energy Subcommittee, whose chair, Rep. Bobby Rush (D-IL), is also set to retire.
Rep. Bob Gibbs (R-OH) also announced Wednesday he will not be seeking reelection. As the Ohio map showdown presses on, Rep. Gibbs had been facing a primary challenge against a Trump-endorsed candidate, Max Miller. Miller initially filed to run against Rep. Anthony Gonzalez (R-OH), another one of the ten House Republicans that voted in favor of impeachment. Miller eventually moved to challenge Rep. Gibbs in the newly drawn district, and Rep. Gonzalez has since announced his own retirement. While Rep. Gibbs’ district will still likely favor Republicans, it is more competitive for Democrats. Rep. Gibbs leaves open his top spot on the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee’s Coast Guard and Maritime Transportation Subcommittee.
In case you missed it, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin has announced her intention to run for the late Rep. Don Young’s (R-AK) seat. After exiting politics following her failed 2008 vice presidential campaign, she has remained in the background of GOP politics, backing President Trump and establishing her own PAC. The special election is scheduled for Aug. 16. Given her star power and Alaska’s new electoral system, this election could quite possibly be her comeback.
As of today, here is where the numbers stand for Members confirmed not returning in 2023:
1 Senate Democrat: 1 full committee chair (Appropriations)
6 Senate Republicans: 6 full committee ranking members (Appropriations; Armed Services; Banking; Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions; Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs; and Rules)
31 House Democrats: 4 full committee chairs (Budget; Ethics; Science, Space, and Technology; and Transportation and Infrastructure)
19 House Republicans: 2 full committee ranking members (Homeland Security and Ways and Means)
Redistricting
As we reported last week, Maryland has new maps. Gov. Larry Hogan signed the redrawn Congressional districts into law on Tuesday, marking the end of another chaotic redistricting process. The new maps make districts more compact, but Republican lawmakers contend that the maps still unfairly preserve a 7-1 advantage for Democrats.
Maryland is a state where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans 2-1. Leader Hoyer’s 5th District, which has long been tailored for him, now no longer includes College Park and his alma mater, the University of Maryland. The 8th District, represented by Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD), is set to become even more solidly blue. The newly redrawn 1st District would restore GOP strength to state’s sole Republican, Rep. Andy Harris (R-MD). However, his race is still being rated as lean-Republican. The 4th District, left open due to Rep. Anthony Brown’s (D-MD) bid for state attorney general, will likely lean-Democrat. The new map somewhat lessens the potential for Democrats to go 8-0 in Maryland, though primaries have already been delayed from June 28 to July 19.
Ohio’s maps remain on a time crunch. The court had set a deadline of March 28 for finalizing a fourth version of the map, but nine days later, it is clear the process will continue to run into blockades and a challenged Congressional map will likely be used for this year’s elections. Meanwhile, state Republican lawmakers are threatening to impeach Chief Justice Maureen O’Connor over repeated votes with the court’s Democrats on redistricting.