Plurus Strategies Weekly Update: Ukraine Assistance, COVID Aid, Reconciliation and Primaries
War in Ukraine
Over the weekend, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), accompanied by Reps. Adam Schiff (D-WA), Jim McGovern (D-MA), Gregory Meeks (D-NY), Jason Crow (D-CO), Bill Keating (D-MA), and Barbara Lee (D-CA) made a surprise visit to Kyiv, where they met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to reinforce the U.S. commitment to Ukraine as the war continues. On Monday, the group also met with Polish President Andrzej Duda to demonstrate support for a neighboring NATO ally in the region. We anticipate this trip will fuel work on President Joe Biden’s $33 billion request for additional Ukraine aid once the House returns from recess next week.
As a reminder, the president’s proposal includes $20 billion in security funding and military equipment for Ukraine, $8.5 billion in economic aid, and $3 billion in humanitarian assistance. In addition to emergency appropriations, the White House has proposed new authorities that would allow the U.S. to seize Russian oligarchs’ assets and redirect money to Ukraine. Because spending bills must originate in the House, passage of the Ukraine supplemental is unlikely this week. Senators could have maneuvered around these procedures by amending a House resolution, but consensus seems to be that Ukraine support is too important to forego the normal process for consideration on the floor.
While Speaker Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) had previously expressed support for combining Ukraine aid and new COVID relief in a single bill to expedite their consideration and passage, Republicans have now thrown up roadblocks to that approach. Assuming Democrats choose to put the Ukraine package on the floor without linking it to COVID aid, there could be a path for the bill to become law as soon as next week. The Ukraine package could carry other bipartisan legislation, such as Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) and Jeanne Shaheen’s (D-NH) bill to require that the U.S. Government collect and maintain evidence of war crimes committed by Russia in Ukraine. Though the Ukraine supplemental is expected to pass with bipartisan support, there are some Republicans who have raised concerns. For example, Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-OK) is making the case for increasing military aid, and Sens. John Thune (R-SD) and Richard Shelby (R-AL) are seeking greater understanding of Ukraine assistance put forward by European allies.
Before leaving for the recess, the House passed the Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act, sending the bill to President Biden for signature. The bill will allow the administration to expedite the delivery of equipment to Ukraine and other European allies by permitting lend-lease agreements and removing other barriers to lending arms. Congress has also been focused on issues related to food insecurity brought about by the war in Ukraine. On Monday, Sens. Joni Ernst (R-IA) and Chris Coons (D-DE) introduced a resolution that would suspend the statutory requirement that at least half of vessels carrying U.S. food aid are U.S.-owned.
This week, President Biden continued to make the case for more support for Ukraine, including with a visit to an Alabama Lockheed Martin facility producing Javelins, one of the weapons the administration is sending to Ukraine to support the fight against Russia. The president’s trip to Alabama represented a rare domestic event focused on foreign policy and an opportunity for the administration to address concerns about U.S weapons stockpiles being depleted due to support for Ukraine.
Late last week, President Biden nominated Bridget Brink to serve as U.S. ambassador to Ukraine. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee will hold a confirmation hearing on Brink’s nomination on May 10. Since her nomination was announced, Brink has received overwhelming bipartisan support. As a result, we expect her nomination to move quickly.
More generally, it is possible that the next few weeks could mark a shift in the war. Intelligence suggests that Russian President Vladimir Putin may seek to officially escalate “special operations” in Ukraine to a war declaration on May 9 to coincide with the anniversary of Russia’s defeat of the Nazis in 1945. Russia might then pursue sham referendums in Luhansk and Donetsk to officially annex these territories. The city of Kherson, currently held by Russia troops, could ultimately see a similar fate. If these efforts are successful, Russia could attempt to make further territorial gains in Ukraine.
COVID Aid
President Biden's priority of securing additional funding for COVID relief is not passing Congress in a hurry due to unrelated disputes about immigration. As a reminder, before the Easter recess, Leader Schumer and Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT) had struck a deal on a $10 billion package to provide more money for COVID testing, vaccines, therapeutics, and pandemic preparedness. Offsets remain a sticking point, as has global vaccination funding, which Republicans oppose.
As noted above, Democrats had hoped to link the COVID bill to Ukraine aid, in order to grease the wheels for passing both. The Biden Administration and Democratic Senators would prefer to advance them together, as they fear that separating the bills would leave COVID relief stranded without a strategy for moving forward.
Senate Republicans have expressed significant opposition to packaging the bills and continue to demand a vote on an amendment to reject the Biden Administration’s decision to lift Title 42 immigration restrictions. This Trump-era policy cited the pandemic to expel nearly 1.8 million migrants at the southern border, including asylum seekers. GOP insistence that the Title 42 vote be tied directly to the COVID package puts Democratic leadership in a tough place given that some of their most moderate and vulnerable Members would likely be forced to vote with Republicans.
Without at least 10 GOP votes, COVID aid will remain stalled in the Senate. We continue to think one way to resolve this issue might be to ramp up appropriations for border security and immigration enforcement. However, since it could be the lame duck before appropriations bills get traction on the floor, COVID aid could also be sidelined until then absent any other breakthroughs.
USICA/America COMPETES Act Conference
Finally, the House and Senate have completed the procedural process of going to conference on the U.S. Innovation and Competition Act (USICA) and the America COMPETES Act. Last Thursday, the Senate voted 67-27 to agree to the House’s request for a conference on U.S. competitiveness legislation.
To finally get to conference, this week the Senate considered 28 non-binding motions to instruct conferees, including 20 offered by Republicans and eight put forward by Democrats. This week’s votes mark the greatest number of votes on motions to instruct conferees on a single piece of legislation in decades. The motions to instruct cover a range of issues, spanning efforts to curb malign Chinese influence, block Chinese access to critical minerals, restrict certain kinds of research from taking place in China, and resurrect the Iran nuclear agreement.
During his Tuesday visit to Lockheed Martin’s Alabama facility, President Biden urged lawmakers to come together and pass the CHIPS Act to boost domestic production of semiconductors that are critical for U.S. military systems and a wide variety of commercial products. His call comes as industry leaders and administration officials, including Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, continue to warn Congress that companies will invest elsewhere unless there is action on CHIPS Act funding.
Now that we are on the cusp of conference negotiations officially beginning, we are increasingly hearing rumors that Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA) could chair the conference committee, especially given the Commerce Committee's jurisdiction over the CHIPS Act. Additionally, Hill staff continue to tell us that CHIPS Act funding could serve as motivation for getting the conference done. However, given there remains a possibility that the conference falls apart, we are hearing a strategy may already be emerging to move CHIPS provisions on some other vehicle in the lame duck.
Staffers who are involved in the conference proceedings tell us they expect the summer months to be a slog. However, one factor that might help to expedite the conference committee’s work is recent reports that the Chinese Embassy in Washington may be seeking to influence the final bill. Assuming there is a compromise to be had, we anticipate the earliest we might see passage of a conference report is just before the August recess, although it remains possible that competitiveness legislation slips to after the midterm elections.
BBB/Reconciliation
Progress on a reconciliation measure is slow moving, especially with Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) dabbling in other efforts that some Democrats believe to be a distraction on efforts to cobble together a domestic policy package that can win the support of both moderates in the Senate and progressives in the House. While there is some consensus that a package that reforms the tax code, lowers drug prices, and addresses climate change is doable, Democrats fear that the opportunity to pass legislation and see the return on their investment of political capital is narrowing. As a reminder, reconciliation authority expires September 30.
On Monday night, the group led by Sens. Manchin and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) reconvened to see if there might be a path forward on bipartisan energy legislation in this Congress. Sen. Manchin has indicated that he is not looking at the energy bill and reconciliation as a “one or the other” opportunity and has said he is keeping an open mind to both. While energy talks may entail some discussion of reforms to the federal oil and gas leasing process, domestic pipeline aid, liquefied natural gas (LNG) production, and investments in clean energy, our instincts tell us that Republicans might be going along with this effort just to derail Democratic prospects for a reconciliation bill.
Appropriations
As you know, the “big four” appropriators had their first meeting of the fiscal year 2023 (FY23) appropriations cycle aimed at reaching agreement on defense and non-defense toplines last Thursday. We have heard positive reports coming out of that meeting and there is optimism that 302(a) allocations could be finalized in just a matter of weeks. The group is expected to meet again once the House returns from recess next week. While toplines may be within reach, it sounds like appropriators have yet to discuss how to handle policy riders. We suspect several factors could drive the big four to a deal to keep poison pill policy provisions out of this year’s appropriations process.
With the House out this week, the Senate continued to make progress on budget hearings, including with testimony from Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm, Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Xavier Becerra, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, and Veterans Affairs (VA) Secretary Denis McDonough.
For now, the House Appropriations Committee plans to hold its FY23 subcommittee markups June 13-22 and full committee markups June 22-30. This means the House could potentially begin considering appropriations measures on the floor as soon as they return from the July 4 recess. The Senate Appropriations Committee would also aim to markup all its bills in June and July, although they will likely come to the floor in an omnibus after the election. This means there will likely be a short-term continuing resolution (CR) into the lame-duck around October 1.
Political Tidbits
Primaries
Tuesday saw primaries in Ohio and Indiana, the first group of several which will be held throughout the month of May. President Donald Trump’s endorsement scheme may be working as all his endorsed candidates in these two states won. However, it remains to be seen how President Trump’s influence will play in the general elections in November. Tuesday night also saw several competitive primaries for redistricted House seats and an intraparty Democratic rematch. Major races included the following:
Ohio
Senate: Boosted by President Trump’s endorsement in mid-April and the backing of billionaire Peter Thiel, venture capitalist J.D. Vance won the Senate primary despite reports that he was not necessarily beloved by the GOP base. He won 32 percent of the vote, while former state Treasurer Josh Mandel, who had been endorsed by retiring Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH), came in with 24 percent of the vote. Vance had previously been an intense critic of President Trump during his presidential campaign, referring to the former president as “America’s Hitler” and “a moral disaster.” In 2016, he even suggested that he might vote for Hillary Clinton if President Trump seemed likely to win. Vance then did a political 180 as he launched his campaign, praising President Trump as the best president of his lifetime. While Vance’s win will help reinforce President Trump’s claim to be a kingmaker of the GOP, it is not entirely clear his victory can predict the outcomes of other GOP primaries. We will be watching Trump-endorsed candidates, including Dr. Oz in Pennsylvania and former Sen. David Perdue (R-GA) in Georgia, in primaries later this month as they face tough challenges. As expected, Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH) has secured the Democratic Senate nomination, meaning he will face Vance this fall. Rep. Ryan was the moderate candidate in the race, and his progressive challenger, former Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) senior advisor Morgan Harper, faced an uphill battle in the primary from the start. Rep. Ryan’s campaign has pulled ideas from the center and further left to appeal to voters, highlighting higher minimum wages and lower healthcare costs.
Governor: Although polling earlier this year had former Rep. Jim Renacci (R-OH) in the lead, a crowded Republican primary split the vote and incumbent Gov. Mike DeWine easily sailed through the primary on Tuesday. Former Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley won the Democratic primary over former Cincinnati Mayor John Craley. Whaley faces an uphill battle. President Trump won the state by eight points in 2020. She used her victory speech to appeal to both her party and Republicans who did not vote for DeWine in the primary.
On the House side, several important primaries occurred:
OH-1: Incumbent Republican Rep. Steve Chabot (R-OH) faces an uphill battle, as expected, with his race still being rated as toss-up. Cincinnati City Councilor Greg Landsman was unopposed and won the Democratic nomination.
OH-7: Trump-endorsed Max Miller won the GOP nomination. Rep. Bob Gibbs (R-OH) announced just last month he would not seek reelection. While the district is solidly Republican, it is one to watch given that it now includes a large part of the 16th district, which is represented by retiring Republican Rep. Anthony Gonzalez (R-OH).
OH-9: Like Rep. Chabot, incumbent Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur(D-OH), whose district was redrawn into one that would have narrowly voted for President Trump in 2020, will also face a tough challenge this fall against J.R. Majewski, an Air Force veteran most known for painting his lawn into a Trump sign.
OH-11: In Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Secretary Marcia Fudge’s old district, incumbent Democratic Rep. Shontel Brown (D-OH) won by a landslide over her opponent, former state Sen. Nina Turner, for the second time in less than a year. Both Rep. Brown and Turner had gone for the progressive vote, with Rep. Brown touting her endorsement by the Congressional Progressive Caucus, of which she is a member, and Turner touting an endorsement by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), whose 2020 presidential election she co-chaired.
OH-13: Rep. Ryan’s run for Senate created an open, competitive seat. Trump-endorsed Madison Gesiotto Gilbert won the nomination and will square off with state Rep. Emilia Sykes, who ran unopposed in the Democratic primary.
Indiana
Senate: Incumbent Sen. Todd Young (R-IN) was unopposed in the GOP primary and will go up against Tom McDermott, the Democratic Mayor of Hammond, in November.
House
IN-1: Although his district is currently rated as likely Democratic, incumbent Rep. Frank Mrvan (D-IN) is considered one of the vulnerable Democrats this year. Representing one of several Republican women making gains in state primaries, Jennifer-Ruth Green, an Air Force veteran, is set to take on Rep. Mrvan.
IN-9: State Sen. Erin Houchin won the GOP nomination to succeed retiring Rep. Trey Hollingsworth (R-IN), with 37 percent of the vote. She faces Democratic challenger Matthew Fyfe, a teacher.
Looking ahead, May will be a busy month for primaries:
Tuesday, May 10: Nebraska, West Virginia
Tuesday, May 17: Idaho, Kentucky, North Carolina, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and three Republican conventions for House seats in Virginia
Tuesday, May 24: Alabama, Georgia, and the MN-01 special election
Retirements/Resignations
This week, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul announced she will appoint Rep. Antonio Delgado (D-NY) as her lieutenant governor. Rep. Delgado’s departure brings the tally up to 33 House Democrats not seeking reelection this fall. As of today, the breakdown of retirements and resignations are:
1 Senate Democrat: 1 full committee chair (Appropriations)
6 Senate Republicans 6 full committee ranking members (Appropriations; Armed Services; Banking; Health Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP); Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs (HSGAC); and Rules)
33 House Democrats: 4 full committee chairs (Budget; Ethics; Science, Space, and Technology; and Transportation and Infrastructure)
17 House Republicans: 2 full committee ranking members (Homeland Security and Ways and Means)
Rep. Delgado had flipped NY-19 from red to blue in 2018. Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro is the GOP frontrunner in this year’s election, and while no Democrat has announced their candidacy, a couple have expressed interest in running, including State Sen. Michelle Hinchey and Ulster County Executive Pat Ryan, the latter of whom came in second place to Rep. Delgado in the 2018 primary by 1,635 votes. New York’s courts had recently thrown out the redistricted map, and Republicans are looking to push off the primary from June 28 to August 23 for Congressional and state Senate races, leaving the first date for Assembly and statewide primaries. Democrats are challenging this effort in court.