Countdown to Midterms 2022
With just under 100 days until Election Day 2022, President Joe Biden’s approval ratings remain below 40 percent. The generic ballot between Congressional Republicans and Democrats has tightened, although the GOP maintains its lead. Two legislative wins on guns and domestic semiconductor manufacturing have given the Biden Administration and Congressional Democrats solid accomplishments to campaign on in the fall. Furthermore, in a surprise turn of events, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-WV) recent reconciliation negotiations on environmental, tax, and healthcare reform could add another victory to the Democrats’ scoresheet. Yet outside events – from inflation to a possible recession, the aftermath of the Dobbs ruling, the war in Ukraine, and COVID’s BA.5 variant – continue to occupy the government’s and voters’ attention.
The midterms will likely hinge on the nation’s recovery from the COVID-related supply chain shocks. If actions by the federal reserve along with more recently enacted CHIPS and Science Act and yet-to-be-passed Inflation Reduction Act can at least slow the rise of inflation or at least generate some economic optimism, Democrats might be able to minimize their currently projected losses this fall. However, if inflation worsens or a recession materializes, the 2022 midterms could resemble the large Republican waves in 1994 and 2010. Despite the favorable national environment, Republicans may struggle to win the Senate due to unpopular or unpredictable nominees in states like Georgia, Pennsylvania, and several others. Meanwhile, Democrats appear to have nominated strong candidates in open seats in states such as Pennsylvania and Ohio and are running seasoned incumbents in the other competitive states.
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Legislative Wins
Over the summer, Democrats saw two big wins. Passed in the wake of two tragic mass shootings in Uvalde, Texas, and Buffalo, New York, the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act provides support for domestic abuse victims, mental health support for schools and states, and enhanced background checks for prospective firearms buyers under 21. It is the first major gun control legislation passed in decades. The other major accomplishment for the administration and Congress is the bipartisan CHIPS and Science Act. Democrats hope this bill eases inflation as the current semiconductor shortage has been identified as a factor in rising car and appliance prices, sectors hit hardest by inflation.
Gas Prices Down, Every Other Price Up
During the recent inflation surge, the rise in the price at the pump was the most visible and painful for consumers. However, gas may be one of the few items that cost less than it did a month ago. While inflation is up 9.1 percent from last year for other consumer goods (a 1.3 percent increase in prices from May to June alone), the average cost of a gallon of gasoline at the end of last week was down 12 cents from the previous week and down 60 cents more from the previous month. One possible reason for the drop in gas prices could be fears of a looming recession, which appeared more likely after the Q2 GDP numbers pointed to a second straight quarter of negative growth.
A Recession on the Horizon?
Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell is confident the economy is not in recession, pointing to the strong labor market. He has urged the public to take the recent GDP numbers with “a grain of salt” because they rely on preliminary numbers that are often changed. However, Chair Powell has still recognized inflation’s threat to the economy and backed the Federal Reserve’s move to raise interest rates .75 percent higher.
The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022
Backed by the White House, Congressional Democrats’ economic strategy is the Inflation Reduction Act. This latest version of a reconciliation package collects more revenue than it spends, using the difference to pay off the national debt, a priority for Sen. Manchin. Democrats hope taking more money out of the economy while encouraging some green investment can alleviate inflation and reduce carbon emissions by 40 percent from the 2005 peak, slightly short of President Biden’s goals. The legislation raises revenue by increasing Internal Revenue Service (IRS) enforcement and raising the corporate minimum tax to 15 percent. The bill also saves money by allowing Medicare to negotiate some drug prices. The bill’s spending includes clean energy tax credits (mostly for renewables and electric vehicles), an Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidy extension to 2025, prescription drug subsidies, and deficit reduction.
Everything Else
In the aftermath of the Dobbs ruling, abortion has become one of the most prescient issues in American politics. As a result of the Supreme Court’s deferral of the abortion question to state governments, partisan control over states’ legislatures, supreme courts, governors’ mansions, and attorneys generals’ offices have become the decisive factors in the legality of abortion. Democrats hope the recent retreat of abortion access throughout the country will be a wake-up call to their base and rally them to the polls this fall. A crucial litmus test for voters’ attitudes will occur on Tuesday in Kansas A referendum will decide whether to amend the state’s constitution to read that there is no constitutional right to an abortion. The ballot measure’s failure could signal that abortion rights are a powerful political movement for Democrats even in a red state like Kansas. On the other hand, the measure’s success might indicate that abortion may be a further polarizing issue between the two parties.
Despite once dominating the news cycles, COVID and the war in Ukraine have been overtaken by the economy in headlines. Ukraine and Russia recently reached a deal regarding grain exports, a major food source for the world’s population, in the Black Sea. While a ship carrying Ukrainian grain left Odessa, the future of the deal remains uncertain given that Russia attacked the port on the day the agreement was signed. The war continues to affect many sectors, such as fertilizers, wheat, metals, and energy.
Meanwhile, the COVID B.A 5 variant has swept the nation, even reinfecting those who had COVID very recently. Due to the low death rate and lack of political pressure, federal agencies and state governments do not seem to have even considered any mitigation efforts for the spread of COVID. Recently, the Biden Administration has offered a second round of COVID vaccine boosters to those over 50 and plans to have boosters that are tailored to combat newer variants available for every American by September. While COVID restrictions in the U.S. have laxed, lockdowns abroad still threaten the American economy. As of early last week, there are 28 million Chinese citizens under lockdown, a figure released before Wuhan – a city of 14 million people – went into lock down later in the week. The U.S. has relied on Chinese production and manufacturing for decades, but China’s COVID Zero policy could mean that supply shortages and subsequent inflation persist in the coming months.
Sneak Peek at 2024
There is growing doubt if either President Biden or former President Donald Trump will win their party’s nomination in 2024. A recent CNN poll indicated that 75 percent of Democrats do not want President Biden to run in 2024 and 55 percent of Republicans did not want President Trump to run again. However, President Biden’s recent legislative victories could revive his popularity in his party. Meanwhile, a Trump endorsement remains a powerful force in Republican politics. In fact, an LA Times tracker predicts that 136 out of 146 Trump-endorsed candidates will win their primaries.
There are high-profile figures who could take the reins of each party. Some consider Vice President, Kamala Harris a natural successor to President Biden. However, her high unfavorability numbers may leave room for another challenger, such as California Gov. Gavin Newsom or Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, both of whose names have popped up in 2024 rumors. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis consistently ranks as the second most supported Republican in polling. The conventional wisdom since the 20th century has been that a losing president will likely not run for reelection, but convention has not often been associated with President Trump’s political strategies.