September Political Update
Welcome back from the August recess! With 24 legislative days until the election, lawmakers are facing looming deadlines and a packed agenda – from government spending to the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), among other key priorities. Below are some highlights for the weeks ahead, including what to watch this September.
Also included below is the current draft of our “Congressional laundry list” – a list of must-pass legislation, priorities with high-possibility of action, candidates for short-term extensions, and agenda items being worked on but less likely to see action.
Finally, we wanted to share our most recent political analysis, including a breakdown of recent primaries and our Senate and House musical chairs documents. These analyses aim to show how retirements, close races, and term limits may impact party leadership, committee leadership, and committee membership for the next Congress – and can inform motivations and legacy items for this Congress.
What to Watch this September
Appropriations
Congress has about two legislative weeks until government funding and several major programs expire. The House passed its six-bill minibus in mid-July. Although Senate Democrats released a $1.7 trillion spending package just before the recess, Republicans remain opposed to topline funding levels, among other policy riders.
Senate Appropriations Committee and Democratic leadership want to keep the continuing resolution (CR) as clean as possible as a way to create pressure to wrap up an omnibus in December. However, the CR could potentially include short-term extenders for expiring provisions, like Food and Drug Administration (FDA) User Fees, as well as anomalies for key areas, including the administration’s requested $22.4 billion for COVID response efforts, $13.7 billion for Ukraine aid and related energy measures, $6.5 billion for disaster relief, and $4.5 billion to address the monkeypox outbreak. It is looking increasingly unlikely that COVID and monkeypox aid will make it into the short-term funding bill.
Another big item to watch for on the CR is Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-WV) environmental permitting proposals. While Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has promised Sen. Manchin a vote by the end of the fiscal year, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) recently announced he would vote against a stopgap funding measure that includes permitting reforms, complicating the path forward.
The CR under discussion in the House would extend spending at roughly fiscal year 2022 (FY22) levels to mid-December, but the date has not been finalized. There continues to be some worry that if the CR runs through only December 6 or 9, it could create an opening for Members to argue it would be impossible to get the omnibus done in time, resulting in it getting punted to next year. That said, Sens. Richard Shelby (R-AL), Roy Blunt (R-MO), Susan Collins (R-ME), and Lindsey Graham (R-SC) have all indicated they want to get the omnibus done, although appropriations leaders have yet to strike an agreement on topline defense and non-defense spending levels. As it stands now, a stopgap bill will likely be considered in the coming days and will then make its way to the Senate and eventually the president’s desk.
NDAA
The Senate Armed Service Committee (SASC) approved its NDAA in June, but there has been no activity in the Senate on the NDAA since. The House passed its version in July. SASC Chair Jack Reed (D-RI) has indicated he is "begging” Senate leadership to find time to debate the NDAA in September, but he has acknowledged competing priorities and a condensed timeline, especially if the Senate chooses to recess for all of October. If the NDAA is squeezed out of the calendar, it is likely we could see a similar NDAA process as last year, where the Senate never passes its bill and pre-conferences the legislation reported out of committee with the House-passed bill. This means the compromise NDAA is likely to be a lame duck agenda item. It could ultimately carry other items, such as Pay-As-You-Go (PAYGO) sequester relief and a reauthorization of the Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program.
Other Priorities
The House has few legislative days left on the calendar before Election Day, meaning that while there is likely to be a robust lame duck, not much activity will happen in the chamber in September. On the Senate side, the September calendar is packed with several judicial nominations that have been cleared by the Judiciary Committee and a potential standalone vote on The Respect for Marriage Act, which reportedly has the support from as many as 10 Republicans. The Senate could also vote on the Electoral Count Act, which was introduced by Sens. Collins Manchin in July. There is likely to be increased pressure to pass the INSULIN Act, legislation related to retirement security, and the reauthorization of the Water Resources Development Act (WRDA). Other items being worked include the American Innovation and Choice Online Act (AICOA), Sens. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) and Chuck Grassley’s (R-IA) big-tech antitrust bill, though there is not much appetite for debate. It remains clear that the NDAA as well as the omnibus are the two big drivers for the fall.
Looking Ahead to the Lame Duck and the Next Congress
Conventional wisdom is that if Republicans flip one or both chambers in November, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) may approach the lame duck with a desire to clear the decks. In part, this could be motivated by the fact that the Republicans caucuses in the 118th Congress are likely to be more difficult to manage than the current GOP conference. That said, GOP leadership may be eager to complete the FY23 appropriations cycle and avoid the risk of a government shutdown next spring.
In the weeks ahead, we anticipate Republicans will focus their messaging on inflation. Leader McCarthy is also expected to pushout his vision for a GOP-controlled Congress, including top priorities and the House agenda for the first 100 days. While a divided government means that Congressional Republicans could potentially introduce legislation that Democrats would view as toxic, President Biden will have the upper hand with a veto threat. Our instincts tell us that a Republican-controlled Congress would focus on launching investigations aimed at damaging the president.
Congressional Laundry List
14 Legislative Days until the end of FY22
24 Legislative Days until Election Day
49 Legislative Days until the end of 2022
MUST-PASS LEGISLATION
FY23 Appropriations: CR at a minimum; potentially an omnibus in the lame duck
National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA): Passed House
PRIORITIES WITH HIGH-POSSIBILITY OF ACTION
Water Resources Development Act (WRDA): In conference
U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) User Fee Reauthorization*
Behavioral Health: Including Mental Health Reform Reauthorization Act*
Pandemic Preparedness*
Retirement Security: Including SECURE 2.0*
Respect for Marriage Act: Stand-alone vote
DISCLOSE Act: Cloture vote before midterms to “get Republicans on the record”
Environmental Permitting Reform*
SERIOUS CANDIDATES FOR AT LEAST SHORT-TERM EXTENSIONS
Expires Sept. 30
National Flood Insurance Program Authorization*
National Transportation Safety Board Authorization*
Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Reauthorization Act*
Federal Communications Commission (FCC) Spectrum Authorization Authority*
Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) Program***
Child Nutrition Reauthorization: No update since 2010*
Authorization of Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF)*
Maternal, Infant, & Early Childhood Home Visiting*
Low Volume Hospital (LVH) Program*
Medicare-Dependent, Small Rural Hospital (MDH) Program*
Expires Dec. 13
Medicaid Assistance for Territories (FMAP)**
Expires Dec. 31
Railroad Track Maintenance Credit**
Temporary 100 Percent Meal Deduction for Business Meal Expenses
Temporary Order for Fentanyl-Related Substances (FRS)
Medicare Radiation Oncology Rules Delay**
Medicare Physician Bonus Payments**
Medicare Access and Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) Reauthorization Act/Alternative Payment Models (MACRA/APM) Bonus (2022 last performance year, 2024 payment year)**
Expires 2023
Other Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA)-Related Tax Phase-Outs: Full expensing tax preference in TCJA begins to phase out in 2023 and ends completely 2027**
Medicare Sequester & Pay-As-You-Go (PAYGO) Relief: Moratorium of sequestration on Medicare provider payments extended through the end of March, followed by a gradual restoration (1 percent) during the second quarter before restoring full 2 percent cuts effective July 1**
AGENDA ITEMS BEING WORKED, BUT LESS LIKELY ACTION
American Data Privacy Protection Act (ADPPA): However, we could see enactment of narrower measures such as:
American Innovation and Online Choice Act(AICOA): Aimed at big tech
Senate Ratification of the Kigali Amendment: This international environmental treaty phases down hydrofluorocarbons
Immigration Reform: Focused on pathways to citizenship, including Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) and Temporary Protected Status (TPS) designation, and restrictions at the southern border
COVID Relief: Advancing Telehealth Beyond COVID-19 Act; potential revival of $10 billion proposal that failed in the spring due to debate around immigration reform
Restaurant Relief: Replenish Restaurant Revitalization Fund (RRF)
Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF)***
*Likely to ride on CR or Omnibus
**Likely to ride on Omnibus
***Could ride on NDAA
Elections
History tells us that midterms are usually a referendum on who controls the White House. This year’s midterms could be a reflection on the popularity of the sitting president, or they may be a referendum on the previous occupant of the White House.
Some Senate races previously thought to be competitive may now be out of play. Our sources are saying that the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) has all but admitted Arizona’s Senate race is no longer a target. Accordingly, Sabato’s Crystal Ball changed their rating of Arizona’s as well as Pennsylvania’s Senate races to “Lean D.” Meanwhile, special elections on the House side continue to show Democrats over performing. New York’s special election in the 19th District – thought to be a bellwether for the anticipated “red tide” midterm season – went to a Democrat. Even more surprisingly, A Democrat also won Alaska’s special election, and Sabato’s changed the rating of the general election from “Safe Republican” to “Toss-up.”
In addition to these shifts, President Donald Trump’s exposure vis-a-vis the Mar-a-Lago raid and an ongoing rift between Leader McConnell and NRSC Chair Rick Scott (R-FK) could continue to impact the campaigning and legislating capacity of Republicans.
All in all, the wind does not seem to be on the backs of the GOP, and many would agree Democrats are far better-positioned than they were in May. Even President Joe Biden’s approval ratings have risen past the 40 percent mark. The Supreme Court’s (SCOTUS) decision on abortion has embattled many voters, creating potentially anomalous conditions for a midterm season, and Democratic wins, like the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and student loan forgiveness, are generating many headlines suggesting that the Democrats may “buck” history.
However, analysts are being cautious, particularly given similar trends that occurred in 2010 and 2018. During those elections, Democratic wins throughout the summer lost their potency by the time November came around. Republicans need only five seats to win the House and only one seat to win the Senate. Further, Democrats hold roughly 80 percent of seats leaning, likely or expected to flip and roughly 81 percent of seats considered toss-ups, meaning they are certainly not out of the woods.
Primaries and Retirements
The most recent member of Congress to retire was Rep. Charlie Crist (D-FL), who had indicated he would forgo a fourth term in May 2021 to focus his attention on a hopeful return to the Governor’s office. Redistricting dramatically changed his seat, causing it to be a seat President Trump would have won by seven points in 2020. Following his win in the Democratic gubernatorial primary, Rep. Crist announced his plan to retire effective immediately. As of early September, here are where numbers stand of Members not returning in the 118th Congress:
1 Senate Democrat: 1 full committee chair (Appropriations)
6 Senate Republicans: 6 full committee ranking members (Appropriations; Armed Services; Banking; Health Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP); Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs (HSGAC); and Rules)
39 House Democrats: 5 full committee chairs (Budget; Ethics; Oversight and Government Reform; Science, Space, and Technology; and Transportation and Infrastructure)
30 House Republicans: 5 full committee ranking members (Ethics; Homeland Security; House Administration; Ways and Means; and Select Committee to Investigate the Jan. 6 Attack on the U.S. Capitol)
This week, Massachusetts was the only state to hold a primary. Considering it is one of the bluest in the nation and none of the congressional Democratic incumbents ran opposed, it was not a very shocking night. Trump-endorsed Republican Geoff Diehl won the gubernatorial primary. However, Maura Healey, the state’s attorney general is the overwhelming favorite and is likely to become the country’s first openly lesbian governor.
Next Tuesday, September 13, Delaware, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island hold their primaries. Money is pouring into primaries in the Granite State, which is expected to have competitive races in the Senate and House. Rhode Island is not expected to have races that will garner national attention. However, there is an open seat in the House, and the incumbent governor is facing an intraparty challenger. Here are the races we will be following:
NH Senate: For most of this year, Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH) has been considered one of the more vulnerable incumbents. However, recent rating changes have put her race closer to leaning Democrat. Her prospective challenger, Don Bolduc, is a retired Army Brigadier General who unsuccessfully ran in 2020. Meanwhile, GOP establishment favorite and New Hampshire State Senate President Chuck Morse, is running second in polls behind Bolduc. Despite the polls, Morse seems confident he can win the Republican primary.
NH-01: Democratic incumbent Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH) will see five Republican challengers face off for the GOP primary spot. The incumbent is running unopposed, but his race has been rated as a toss-up. Like many of his fellow Democrats, he is putting abortion rights front and center in his campaign. Republican candidates continue to stress fiscal issues.
NH-02: Democratic incumbent Rep. Annie Kuster’s (D-NH) race has been rated a toss-up. In a risky move, some Democratic PACs, including Democrats Serve, are boosting pro-Trump Republican Bob Burns in hopes that it will move voters towards Burns and away from a more potent rival, Keene Mayor George Hansel. Although President Biden carried the district by nine points in 2020, Republicans are hoping to contest the seat in the midterm election.
NH Gubernatorial: Almost all leading political pundits have rated New Hampshire’s gubernatorial race as likely Republican. GOP Gov. Chris Sununu is likely to win another term, although Tom Sherman, the only candidate running the Democratic primary, has launched a six-figure ad campaign attacking the incumbent governor on his abortion stance. Abortion may be a salient issue for some voters, but polls show New Hampshire voters still put the economy at the top of their priorities’ list.
RI-02: Rep. Jim Langevin (D-RI) announced his retirement in early 2022, leaving his seat vacant. Four Democrats – Joy Fox, Seth Magaziner, Sarah Morgenthau, and David Segal – are leading the candidate pool to replace him. The winner of the primary will face Republican Allan Fung and Independent Bill Gilbert in November. The seat has been rated as leaning Democratic and is expected to remain that way.
RI Gubernatorial: Nellie Gorbea, currently serving as Rhode Island’s secretary of state, is challenging Democratic Gov. Dan McKee in the Democratic primary. McKee was nominated to the governorship in 2021 after then-Gov. Gina Raimondo was nominated to serve as Commerce Secretary. This would be his first full elected term. Latino Victory Fund, a Democratic super PAC, has been pouring money into the race ahead of the primary next week. If elected, Gorbea would be the first Latina governor in the region. Former CVS executive Helena Foulkes is also running in the Democratic primary. However, the election has been rated as safe for the incumbent.
Musical Chairs and Committee Leadership: Last Updated September 20, 2022
Here are links to our most recent Senate and House musical chairs documents. These analyses aim to show how retirements, close races, and term limits may impact party leadership, committee leadership, and committee membership. These documents have been updated to reflect results from recent primaries.