2024 Elections Outlook
Introduction
As November approaches, we are just over a year out from the elections. It will be a paramount election year, with contests for the presidency, 34 Senate seats, and all 435 seats in the House of Representatives.
While it is difficult – and somewhat dangerous – to predict elections a year in advance, we wanted to preview key races to watch as we approach the new year.
At the presidential level, American voters might very well be looking at a 2020 rematch. Currently, primary challengers to President Joe Biden haven’t been competitive in the polls, indicating the incumbent will almost certainly be at the top of the Democratic ticket. On the Republican side, former President Donald Trump is dominating his GOP opponents in the polls, despite not attending any of the presidential debates so far.
Out of the 34 Senate races, there are key races to watch in states such as Arizona, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Wisconsin. These races will determine whether the Democrats retain their slim majority in the Senate. Regardless of the outcome of these races, it is a certainty that when Members return in January 2025, the upper chamber will have a new look, as multiple Senators have announced their retirement, leaving seats open in Delaware, Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, and Utah.
While the House is currently GOP-led, there is a window of opportunity for Democrats to win back the majority. In 2020, President Biden won in 18 districts currently held by Republicans. Democrats have the opportunity to flip those seats in 2024. For Democrats to win back the majority, they would need a net gain of five seats.
In addition to the federal races, there are 11 gubernatorial elections next year that could mobilize voters and impact other races. There are two key odd year gubernatorial races to watch this November: Kentucky and Mississippi. Incumbent Governors Andy Beshear (D-KY) and Tate Reeves (R-MS) are running for reelection. As we approach November, polls reveal that Beshear has a steady lead over his Republican opponent, Daniel Cameron, Kentucky’s attorney general, despite Kentucky being a red state. In Mississippi, polls are showing Reeves ahead of the Democratic nominee, Brandon Presley. These two races could paint a picture of how the two parties might fare in 2024.
In many cases, it is still too early to know which candidates’ names will be on official ballots, but one thing is certain: next year will be a long year full of primaries, campaigns, caucuses, and debates, as incumbents, potential challengers, and newcomers fight to win votes. Below is our analysis of 2024’s major elections – presidential, Senate, House, and gubernatorial – identifying noteworthy candidates, party dynamics, races in toss up states, and more.
Key Issues That Will Impact the 2024 Elections
When it comes to American elections, various issues have historically driven different groups to the voting booth. In 2020, public opinion of President Trump brought a record-breaking number of young voters to the polls. Since 2020, a lot has changed. Policy issues and political dynamics, some of which may not become clear until next year, could have a significant impact on election results. Since we are still so far out from the elections, unexpected developments across a range of areas could alter the trajectory of the elections.
Policy
Economy: “It’s the economy, stupid,” said James Carville in 1992. As with every election since then, the state of the domestic economy is usually the top issue for voters. The American public – and candidates for office – have been concerned with inflation, unemployment rates, and the national debt. The unemployment rate, which peaked at 14.7 percent in April 2020, has remained under 4 percent since February 2022. This is a figure that President Biden is expected to emphasize. However, reducing the budget deficit remains a key issue for many Americans, with 57 percent believing that it should be a top priority. Yet, both the Biden and Trump Administrations added trillions of dollars to the national debt during their terms. The inflation rate, which peaked at 7 percent in 2021, has spiked the price of nearly all goods and services, with prices for groceries and gas increasing the most. Inflation will likely bring many middle- and working-class Americans who are struggling to afford basic needs to the polls. Democrats will need to show that they understand middle America’s struggle and that they have solutions for the inflation problem.
Abortion: The overturning of Roe v. Wade and the subsequent limitations on reproductive healthcare encouraged many women and young voters to vote in key ballot initiatives, like those in Kansas and Michigan. In referendums across six states, the majority of voters expressed support for abortion rights. Despite conservative campaigns to get more Americans to support pro-life policies, they have not often been successful. Most Americans continue to be pro-choice, which could help the Democrats in this upcoming general election.
Immigration and Southern Border Security: Democrats are facing headwinds on the immigration crisis and on border security. Daily news stories reveal a steady stream of migrants arriving at the Southern border, and the influx is also impacting larger cities, like New York, that have right to shelter rules in place but have not been able to house all of the arriving migrants. One sign that President Biden is attuned to the issue is the recent announcement that he would waive 26 federal laws to allow construction to resume of the border wall in South Texas.
Foreign Assistance: In the past few weeks, there has been increasingly talk of tying border security assistance to Ukraine aid. As a reminder, the continuing resolution (CR) that funds the government through November 17 did not include border spending, largely viewed as a Republican priority, and Ukraine funding, which many Democrats advocate for. However, as of late August, 55 percent of Americans oppose additional spending for Ukraine, which could affect how voters view Democratic efforts to continue supporting Ukraine. The recent Israel-Palestine conflict could also have an impact on elections. After Hamas attacked Israel, President Biden and numerous Members of Congress voiced their support for Israel. However, the conflict has escalated, as Israel continues to bomb Gaza, creating a humanitarian crisis in the Gaza strip. President Biden is currently considering a visit to Israel, as he warns the country not to occupy Gaza. Strong ties with Taiwan, resulting in some tensions with China, is yet another salient issue on the Hill. There are concerns that growing U.S. recognition of Taiwan, for example in terms of military aid and efforts to address double taxation, and ongoing intense competition with China could degrade bilateral relations. However, it does not look like the Biden Administration is planning on cutting ties with Taiwan anytime soon.
Crime and Public Safety: Crime has been increasing since 2020 in major US cities, with blue districts seeing increases in robbery and theft and red states seeing an increase in violent crimes. Homelessness has also increased in the US, as pandemic aid ended, and housing costs have skyrocketed. There has also been an increase in mental health issues among homeless populations. The increase in homelessness has also impacted public safety, with these groups more vulnerable to extreme weather events and at increased risk of being victims of violent crime.
Climate Change: Major storms and wildfires this past year have revealed the sobering impacts of climate change, a major concern of many Gen-Z voters. Younger voters are developing “climate anxiety,” and they feel that older lawmakers are not adequately addressing the threat. If Republicans try to repeal climate efforts, this could help Democrats with younger swing voters. Climate change has also proven to be extremely costly. As of October 2023, there have been $57 billion in damages from natural disasters in the US. A majority of Democrats identify addressing climate change as a top priority, and promoting the Administration’s ambitious climate policies could help to shore up support within the base.
Politics
Age is a significant concern among voters. 80 percent believe that elected officials over 75 risk being “out of touch” and 53 percent believe that serving as president over the age of 75 is “too demanding.” Even though American politics value seniority and experience, Americans are in favor of age limits for lawmakers. President Biden was the first President to turn 80 while in office, causing concerns about his age to emerge among voters, and former President Donald Trump would also enter his 80s in office if he were elected to serve another term.
Candidate unfavorability will also impact elections. President Trump’s unpopularity is arguably the primary determinant of his defeat in the 2020 election. A recent poll reveals that 55 percent of registered voters had an unfavorable view of the former president, and those numbers are not likely to improve as his criminal and civil fraud trials unfold. President Biden is in a similar boat. His approval rate has plummeted from 54.7 percent in January to 2021 to 40.3 percent in October of 2023. He also has higher disapproval ratings than approval ratings on major issues like the economy, Ukraine, immigration, and more. Moreover, polls show that 38 percent of Americans believe that President Biden has done something illegal related to Hunter Biden’s indictment.
Presidential Elections
Even though there have not been any primaries yet, polls suggest that the 2024 presidential election is shaping up to be another faceoff between President Trump and President Biden, which could prompt some Americans to vote for third party candidates or sit out the election. Unlike 2020, both candidates and their respective parties will face some new obstacles in next year’s election.
At this time, President Biden has no serious challengers for the Democratic nomination. However, nearly 60 percent of primary voters want another candidate to challenge the president, while 36 percent do not. One of the primary concerns amongst Democratic voters is his age, as President Biden would be 86 years old at the end of his second term in 2029. It is too early to tell what impact the GOP’s impeachment inquiry of President Biden will have on voters, but the House GOP is working to paint a damning portrait of the president’s dealings. While the administration has been promoting “Bidenomics,” pro-choice policy, and action on climate change, as well as illustrating former President Trump and MAGA supporters as anti-democratic, there is no guarantee that President Biden will be awarded a second term. Polls reveal that threats to democracy resonate strongly with voters, and President Biden could use this type of messaging to his advantage. To secure a second term, President Biden will need to mobilize middle-class and suburban, Gen Z, women, Latino, and African American voters. President Biden will continue to use his go-to phrase when appealing to voters: “Don’t compare me to the Almighty. Compare me to the alternative.” In 2020, President Biden used this narrative to convince voters that he was a viable option.
President Trump faces a total of 91 criminal charges in New York, DC, Florida, and Georgia, as well as a separate civil fraud case in New York. In light of these charges, GOP support for the former President has dropped about six percentage points, potentially costing him votes should he be the Republican nominee. Yet, he is still far ahead of his GOP primary opponents, with Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) trailing in second place by around 40 percentage points. Only 37 percent of GOP primary voters want a candidate to challenge former President Trump, while 59 percent do not, suggesting near-unshakeable support for the former president amongst Republican voters.
In early October, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the Democratic primary, signaling he would instead be running for president as an independent. Even though RFK Jr. comes from a long line of liberal politicians, his values diverge from those of his family. Kennedy running as an independent could have an impact on the election for both Democrats and the GOP, but his strident endorsement of conspiracy theories and anti-vaccine stance poses a more direct threat to the Republican candidate.
Looking ahead to the general election, chaotic GOP intra-party dynamics – as seen with the removal of Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) – could impact voters’ belief in Republicans’ ability to govern and damage their credibility with moderate and swing voters.
Senate Elections
In 2024, 34 of the Senate seats – one third of the chamber – are up for election. While Democrats currently hold a slim majority of 51-49 (three of whom are Independents who caucus with the majority), next year’s elections will consist of races for seats that are currently represented by 20 Democrats, 11 Republicans, and three Independents. There are a few races, mostly in swing states, that could cost Democrats the Senate majority. Below, we identify key Senate races to watch next year. The map works against Democrats, as they defend seven seats in states where President Trump won either in 2016 or 2020. Post-mortems of the 2022 Senate elections indicate that Republicans lost several tight races because they nominated flawed candidates. If they’ve learned their lesson, next year could be tough for Democrats.
There are three states that have Democratic Senators where President Trump won in 2020: Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia. Two of the three incumbents (Sens. Jon Tester (D-MT) and Sherrod Brown (D-OH)) have declared their plans to run for re-election, and these races are already shaping up to be closely contested.
Montana: Sen. Tester is seeking to secure a fourth term. Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-MT), who Sen. Tester defeated in 2018, is considering a rematch. National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) Chair, Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT), is also preparing efforts to help other Republican candidates launch campaigns against his state delegation colleague. At the top of the list is former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy, who recently announced his candidacy. Sen. Tester, a farmer who grew up in the Treasure State, is centering his campaign around his deep ties to Montana and farmer values.
Ohio: Like Sen. Tester, Sen. Brown (D-OH) is also running for reelection after serving three terms. President Trump won Ohio by 8.1 points in 2016 and by 8 points in 2020. Sen. Brown’s race will almost certainly be his toughest one, with multiple Republican challengers seeking the GOP nomination. As he has done so successfully in previous elections, Sen. Brown hopes to appeal to working-class voters.
West Virginia: Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) has not announced his plans for 2024. There are multiple possibilities floating around. Sen. Manchin could run for reelection as an Independent, run for president as an Independent, or retire. If Sen. Manchin were to run for reelection, polls show a very tough race, with the Mountain State historically a deep red state. Two Republicans have already announced they are running for the seat – Rep. Alex Mooney (R-WV) and Gov. Jim Justice (R-WV) – and will face each other in May’s primary.
Next year, there are five races in swing states that President Biden won in 2020. Democrats are hoping to keep their seats in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Arizona: After switching her party affiliation in late 2022, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) has yet to announce her bid for reelection but has been lining up infrastructure to do so. Looking at recent polls, Sen. Sinema faces an uphill climb to win the election as an Independent, giving Democrats an opportunity to fill the seat outright. Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) has announced he is running. Republican Kari Lake, who lost to now-Gov. Katie Hobbs (D-AZ) in 2022, has also announced that she is running. Earlier this year, Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb announced his GOP candidacy. Arizona could be looking at a three-way Senate race if Sen. Sinema ultimately decides to run again.
Michigan: In early 2023, Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) announced that she would not be seeking reelection, leaving her seat open in yet another key swing state. Multiple Michiganders are lining up to compete for the open seat. For the Democratic nomination, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) has already begun campaigning, and on the GOP side, former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-MI) and former Detroit Police Chief James Craig are competing for the nomination. The UAW strike is also a major issue impacting Michigan voters, and candidates will need to stake out an acceptable position to win the seat. Michigan’s GOP primary is scheduled for late February or early March.
Nevada: Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) is running for reelection, seeking a second term. Sen. Rosen defeated GOP incumbent Sen. Dean Heller (R-NV) in 2018. However, to keep her seat, Sen. Rosen will need to appeal more to rural Nevadans, who typically lean right. There are currently eight Republicans fighting for the opportunity to unseat Sen. Rosen, with the primary taking place in June.
Pennsylvania: President Biden won the Keystone State in 2020 by 2.2 points, but in 2016, President Trump won the state by less than 1 percent. Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) is running for reelection, seeking a fourth term. Given the current political climate and potential challengers, Sen. Casey is well positioned to do well come next fall, given his family’s political legacy and his strong past performances. At the moment, Sen. Casey’s only official competitor is Dave McCormick, a former hedge fund CEO and Treasury Department undersecretary who lost in the last Pennsylvania GOP Senate primary to Mehmet Oz.
Wisconsin: President Biden won the Badger State in 2020 by 0.6 points, but President Trump won the state by 0.7 points in 2016. Incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) is running for reelection, seeking her third term. Given Sen. Baldwin’s 10.8-point win in 2018, she is again expected to do well. Many national Republicans have chosen not to challenge Sen. Baldwin, but some lower-profile Republicans have announced bids or are considering joining the race. Rejani Raveendran, a 40-year-old college student joined the race in August, while Trempealeau County Board Supervisor Stacey Klein joined in September.
Other Senate Races
In the 2024 election cycle, there are also 15 solid Democrat seats and 10 solid GOP seats. Texas and Florida are two states that will most likely remain red, despite Democrats’ best efforts. Both Sens. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Rick Scott (R-FL) are running for reelection. Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX) is challenging Sen. Cruz, while former Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is challenging Sen. Scott.
In California, three national Democrats are competing to fill the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s seat: Reps. Barbara Lee (D-CA), Katie Porter (D-CA), and Adam Schiff (D-CA). Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) appointed former EMILYs List President Laphonza Butler as Feinstein’s replacement to complete Feinstein’s term. She has not indicated whether she will run for a full term.
A senator now in danger of losing his race in a solid blue state, Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) was recently indicted for the second time during his three terms on charges of corruption. Unlike the 2015 charges, when a Republican governor would have named his successor, several prominent New Jersey Democrats have expressed outrage over the Sen. Menendez’s alleged actions and have called for him to step down. Sen. Menendez relinquished his Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairmanship, then subsequently announced his intent to seek reelection. Primary challengers from across the now deeply blue state have emerged, with Rep. Andy Kim (D-NJ) raising almost $1 million in his first week. Polling before the indictment showed Sen. Menendez with a 36 percent approval rating. However, a poll conducted by a group that has endorsed Rep. Kim conducted after the indictment has Sen. Menendez’s approval rating at just 8 percent. Other potential Democratic challengers have stepped aside, including Reps. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) and Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ), and Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop, who are either planning to or have already announced their candidacy for the open gubernatorial race in 2025.
In addition to Sen. Stabenow in Michigan, there are currently four other incumbents who are not seeking reelection: Sens. Mike Braun (R-IN), Ben Cardin (D-MD), Tom Carper (D-DE), and Mitt Romney (R-UT). The Maryland and Delaware seats will likely remain blue, and the Indiana and Utah seats will likely remain red.
House Elections
All 435 House seats are up for election next November. Republicans gained control of the House in the 2022 midterm elections. Republicans currently hold 221 seats and Democrats fill 212 seats. There are two vacancies – one Republican seat (Rep. Chris Stewart (R-UT)) and one Democratic seat (Rep. David Cicilline (D-RI)). Democrats will need a net gain of five seats to win back the gavel. It is expected to be extremely close, as Democrats only won the House by five seats in 2020. There is also some uncertainty that could come with redistricting battles, most notably in North Carolina and Alabama.
Democrats are focusing their efforts on the 18 districts currently held by Republicans that President Biden won in 2020. There are six districts in New York, five districts in California, and two districts in Arizona, and one each in Nebraska, New Jersey, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. Democrats will also be defending seats that they currently hold in five districts where President Trump won in 2020. These seats are held by Reps. Mary Peltola (D-AK), Jared Golden (D-ME), Marcy Kaptur (D-OH), Matt Cartwright (D-PA), and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-WA). Flipping the 18 Biden-won seats and defending these five Trump-won districts will be key for Democrats to win back the majority.
There are already a number of seats open, as a number of representatives are either retiring or running for another government position. These seats are currently held by Reps. Colin Allred (D-TX), Jim Banks (R-IN), Dan Bishop (R-NC), Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-DE), Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), Andy Kim (D-NJ), Barbara Lee (D-CA), Alex Mooney (R-WV), Grace Napolitano (D-CA), Katie Porter (D-CA), Matt Rosendale (R-MT), Adam Schiff (D-CA), Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), Victoria Spartz (R-IN), David Trone (D-MD), and Jennifer Wexton (D-VA).
GOP Strategy and Vulnerabilities
While the GOP currently holds the majority in the House, the GOP strategy could impact the elections. The GOP faces three main challenges. House Republicans launched an impeachment inquiry into President Biden, with their previous effort focusing mostly on the President’s son, Hunter Biden. A recent poll found that 56 percent of registered voters do not think the House should continue holding impeachment hearings, while only 39 percent think the House should move forward. Republicans in the House were also unable to find agreement on several funding bills in the weeks and days leading up to September 30, the deadline to fund the federal government. A poll conducted days before September 30 revealed that 1 in 3 voters would blame Republicans in Congress for a shutdown. Another shutdown deadline looms on November 17. Additionally, 61 percent of voters disagree with the Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. Despite this unpopularity amongst the American public, many Republicans continue to advocate for pro-life policies.
Democratic Strategy and Vulnerabilities
Democrats in the House also have three main challenges. Inflation is still a top concern for voters, with 65 percent believing it is a significant problem. While inflation has decreased after peaking in 2022, voters are still feeling the impact. Further, only 36 percent of Americans approve of President Biden’s handling of the economy. The recent immigration crisis could also hurt Democrats in next year’s elections. A recent poll found that only 27 percent of Americans believe that Democrats are better at handling immigration than the GOP. About 45 percent of Americans believe the opposite. The immigration crisis could not only hurt President Biden’s electability, but that of Democrats further down the ticket. Increasing crime is yet another issue for Democrats. Violent crime, like homicides, and motor vehicle theft have increased the most since 2019. There were 24% more homicides and 33.5% more vehicle thefts in the first half of 2023 compared to the same period in 2022. Many retail stores are also closing stores all over the country, as looting and shoplifting increase.
Gubernatorial Elections
There are 11 gubernatorial races on the ballot next year. Democrats currently hold the Governor’s seat in Delaware, Vermont, and Washington. Republicans occupy the governor’s office in Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Utah, and West Virginia. While these races will be in rather solid GOP or solid Democratic states, two others will be in toss up states: North Carolina and New Hampshire.
Incumbent Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH) announced he would not seek reelection. Polls reveal that former Sen. Kelly Ayotte is doing better than her GOP competitors and the other Democratic candidates. New Hampshire has historically been a battleground state and the gubernatorial position is up for reelection every two years rather than every four.
North Carolina’s gubernatorial race will also be close. President Trump won the Tarheel State in both 2016 and 2020, but by small margins. Incumbent Governor Roy Cooper (D-NC) is term-limited, but his two terms in office suggest the possibility of victory for another Democrat.