Outlook on the 2026 House Elections: Post-Off-Year Elections Update
Factors Impacting the Contest for House Control
All 435 House of Representatives seats are up in 2026. Currently, the House is split 220 Republicans to 213 Democrats, with two vacancies in reliably Democratic districts. This incredibly narrow margin has made it difficult for Republicans to garner majority support for some of their top agenda items, and this tenuous grip on power has no doubt dampened Republican morale on the Hill.
While this month’s special election in Tennessee's 7th Congressional District saw Republicans maintain their hold on the seat, Democratic candidate Aftyn Behn lost by just 9 percent in a district that President Donald Trump won by over 20 points in 2024 — a leftward shift of 12.6 points. These results likely reflect a growing discontent with President Trump and the Republican party at large and have left many conservatives panicking. With notable figures like Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) announcing early resignations, and those like Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) and Michael McCaul (R-TX) retiring from office, current conditions mirror those ahead of the 2018 midterms, in which Democrats picked up 41 House seats across the country.
Although some red states like Texas have been looking to shore up seats for Republicans through a series of partisanly gerrymandered district maps, they seem to have been caught largely off guard by Democrats’ willingness to do the same, as demonstrated in California. Democrats are feeling optimistic about their odds in next year’s House elections, and for good reason. However, they cannot afford to grow complacent. Control of the House in the last two years of the Trump Administration will hinge on a series of incredibly competitive races, especially in districts with historic Republican inroads.
Included below is a snapshot of the races that leading political pundits have identified as the most competitive contests in this election cycle, though this is by no means an exhaustive list of all the seats that may be in play with the potential to impact the House margins and control of the chamber in the 120th Congress. In fact, if you were to list all the districts where President Trump won in 2024 by less than 13 points — to reflect the shift towards Democrats in the most recent House special election in Tennessee — the list would include a total of 40 races. All these districts, and the incumbents who currently represent them, are listed further below.
Developments in Most Competitive Races
Arizona’s 1st Congressional District: With Rep. David Schweikert (R-AZ) running for governor, the race to fill his critical seat is open. Former Democratic state Rep. Amish Shah, who lost to Schweikert by less than four percent in 2024, is running again but faces a packed primary. Some notable challengers to Shah include former news anchor Marlene Galán-Woods, who finished third in last year’s primary, and civil rights attorney Mark Robert Gordon. Across the aisle, Arizona Republican Party Chair Gina Swoboda has emerged as an early frontrunner, having received President Trump’s endorsement. As Arizona’s most competitive district in 2024, this may be one of the most tone-defining House elections next year.
Inside Elections: Tossup | Cook Political Report: Tossup | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Tossup
Arizona’s 6th Congressional District: Having won reelection with just 50 percent of the vote in 2024, incumbent Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-AZ) has real cause for concern. Although Ciscomani has tried to distance himself from the more politically toxic elements of his party’s branding, such as cuts to social security, his largely Trump-aligned legislative record speaks for itself. Meanwhile, Democrats have mounted a well-coordinated opposition to Ciscomani in the form of former Congressional aide JoAnna Mendoza. Mendoza has been endorsed by Sens. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) and Mark Kelly (D-AZ) alongside many others, making her nomination all but certain. However, with Ciscomani’s campaign having raised $3 million so far, compared to Mendoza’s $2 million, Democrats are likely facing an incredibly competitive race.
Inside Elections: Tossup | Cook Political Report: Tossup | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Tossup
California’s 13th Congressional District: Rep. Adam Gray (D-CA) managed to flip his seat blue in 2024 with the slimmest of majorities, and he must now carry that momentum forth in his first reelection bid. Former Rep. John Duarte (R-CA), who Gray unseated last year, has already declined any intention of running again, leaving the Republican nomination contest open for challengers. Off to a bit of a messy start, Duarte initially championed Ceres mayor Javier Lopez for the role, only to switch his endorsement to former Stockton mayor Kevin Lincoln. Lopez and Lincoln have only raised $140,000 and $270,000, respectively, compared to Gray’s $1.7 million. Given Republicans’ lack of coordination and funding in this race, Gray is well-positioned to secure a second term.
Inside Elections: Tilt D | Cook Political Report: Tossup | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Lean D
California’s 22nd Congressional District: First elected to office in 2022, incumbent Rep. David Valadao (R-CA) has consistently overperformed in his competitive district, largely by distancing himself from President Trump. Such distance will no doubt bolster Valadao’s reelection odds as the president’s popularity has declined considerably this past year. Rudy Salas, Valadao’s Democratic challenger in 2022 and 2024, is set to run again this cycle, but his nomination is far from certain. Also running are state Assemblymember Jasmeet Bains, who has already secured endorsements from ten members of the California Congressional delegation, and school board trustee Randy Villegas, who has carved out a progressive niche for himself with the backing of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA), and the California Working Families party. It appears that neither moderate nor progressive Democrats want to risk a third Salas loss in this district.
Inside Elections: Tilt R | Cook Political Report: Tossup | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Tossup
California’s 48th Congressional District: Winning reelection with over 59 percent of the vote last year, incumbent Rep. Darrell Issa’s (R-CA) reelection was seen as all but certain not too long ago. However, due to the recent passage of California’s Proposition 50, which redraws the district in favor of Democrats, Issa’s once safely red district is now set to be a key battleground in 2026. Following redistricting, a long line of Democrats has announced campaigns to unseat Issa, including naval officer Ammar Campa-Najjar and progressive Brandon Riker. Having served in the House since 2000, Issa may be the most senior Republican incumbent to face such a significant threat to his reelection next year.
Inside Elections: Tilt D | Cook Political Report: Tossup | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Tossup
Colorado’s 8th Congressional District: Flipping his district red in 2024 by a 0.8 percent margin, incumbent Rep. Gabe Evans (R-CO) is no doubt facing an uphill battle to hold onto his seat next year. Endorsed by President Trump, Evans is not facing any significant primary challengers. Instead, he must contend with the possibility of a leftward shift in his state’s most competitive district. Notable Democratic challengers include state Reps. Shannon Bird and Manny Rutinel, who have raised $800,000 and $2.1 million, respectively. Evans is just barely ahead of his competition in this respect, with $2.3 million raised so far. Given how closely contested this seat was in 2024, Democrats are eager to reclaim it next year.
Inside Elections: Tossup | Cook Political Report: Tossup | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Tossup
Iowa’s 1st Congressional District: In 2024, incumbent Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA) won reelection with just 50 percent of her district’s vote, underperforming her 2022 victory of 53 percent. Now, Democrats believe they can flip even more Republican votes, viewing her district as a key pickup in 2026. Former Democratic state Rep. Christina Bohannan, who challenged Miller-Meeks in 2024, has once again announced her candidacy for the position, having already raised $1.9 million, though still falling short of Miller-Meeks’ $3.1 million. House Republican leadership, including Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN), are paying close attention to this race, and a Democratic victory here could spell trouble for Republicans nationally.
Inside Elections: Tossup | Cook Political Report: Tossup | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Tossup
Michigan’s 7th Congressional District: Rep. Tom Barrett's (MI-7) narrow victory with only 50.3 percent of the vote in 2024 makes his seat highly competitive heading into next year's elections. While Barrett’s short tenure presents Democrats with a strong pickup opportunity, the freshman representative has already raised $2.8 million this cycle, demonstrating a robust reelection bid. Meanwhile, Democratic contenders include former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine and Slovakia Bridget Brink, former Navy Seal Matt Maasdam, and climate change activist William Lawrence. Whoever wins the Democratic primary will no doubt be in for a narrow general election come November.
Inside Elections: Tossup | Cook Political Report: Tossup | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Tossup
Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District: A largely suburban district in the Omaha metro area, Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District has long been a key battleground within the state. While Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) has narrowly held onto the seat for a decade now, Bacon is not seeking reelection, and Democrats are eager to clinch this crucial district. No clear successor to Bacon has emerged among Republicans, although the primary appears to largely be a two-man race between Omaha City Councilor Brinker Harding and former state Sen. Brett Lindstrom. Meanwhile, Democrats are fielding a considerably more vibrant slate of candidates, including state Sen. John Cavanaugh, Women Who Run Co-Founder Denise Powell, district court Clerk Crystal Rhoades, and retired Navy veteran Kishla Askins. Because Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris carried the district last year, Democrats view this seat as one of their most viable pickups in 2026.
Inside Elections: Tilt D | Cook Political Report: Lean D | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Lean D
New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District: Two-term incumbent Rep. Tom Kean has announced a reelection bid, though there is no shortage of challengers looking to cut his career short. From ex-Navy helicopter pilot Rebecca Bennett, to former U.S. Surgeon General Advisor Tina Shah, and chair of the Morris County Democratic Party Hispanic Caucus Brian Varela, a long line of Democrats are already vying to unseat Kean. Despite an abundance of energy on the left, it should be noted that Kean won reelection by five percent last year and comes from a Republican family dynasty in New Jersey. As such, the sophomore representative is likely to be a capable adversary for whoever Democrats nominate in 2026.
Inside Elections: Tilt R | Cook Political Report: Tossup | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Tossup
New York’s 17th Congressional District: Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) is in a difficult position. He is one of just three House Republicans representing a district that Harris won in 2024. Despite early speculation, Lawler will not be running for New York governor, a prudent choice given Rep. Elise Stefanik’s (D-NY) frontrunner status among Republicans in that race, as well as Lawler’s demonstrated ability to win over Democratic-aligned voters in his district. At least eight Democrats have already announced challenges to Lawler’s reelection, including former Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) senior advisor Cait Conley and Rockland County legislator Beth Davidson, who have raised $1.3 million and $1.2 million so far, respectively. Despite the district’s left-leaning tendencies and Democrats’ well-funded campaigns, Lawler has so far raised $4 million, and remains broadly popular among his constituents, making him a difficult target to unseat.
Inside Elections: Tossup | Cook Political Report: Lean R | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Lean R
Ohio’s 9th Congressional District: In 2024, incumbent Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH) won reelection by less than one point. Her seat is expected to become more competitive next year. Following Ohio’s redistricting initiative earlier this year, the Ohio’s 9th Congressional District is expected to become redder, putting Kaptur’s reelection in serious jeopardy even as she affirms that she is indeed running again. Four Republicans have so far announced bids for Kaptur’s seat, including former state Rep. Derek Merrin and National Guard Lt. Col. Alea Nadeem, although no candidate has drawn any significant endorsements yet. Ultimately, Kaptur will need to outdo her 2024 performance if she hopes to hold onto her seat.
Inside Elections: Tilt R | Cook Political Report: Lean R | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Lean R
Pennsylvania’s 7th Congressional District: Having flipped his district red by just one point in 2024, incumbent Rep. Ryan Mackenzie’s (R-PA) career in the House may be short-lived. Next year, Mackenzie will not appear on the ballot alongside President Trump, who outperformed him and likely bolstered Mackenzie’s vote total. Instead, the state’s widely popular Gov. Josh Shapiro could help build support for Democratic candidates in Pennsylvania. Firefighter union leader Bob Brooks has emerged as the favorite to win the Democratic primary, receiving endorsements from Shapiro himself, as well as Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. Austin Davis and Rep. Chris Deluzio (D-PA). Home of Lehigh University, Democrats’ success in Pennsylvania’s 7th Congressional District may very well hinge on their ability to motivate young voters, a key sticking point in their shortcomings last year.
Inside Elections: Tossup | Cook Political Report: Tossup | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Tossup
Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District: Having served in the House since 2013, Rep. Scott Perry (R-PA) will not be easy to unseat. However, his 2024 win by a margin of 1.2 percent marks a stark underperformance compared to previous years, including a six-point dip from 2022 alone. Former news anchor Jannelle Stelson, who ran against Perry last year, has already announced her campaign for 2026 and will be the party’s presumptive nominee. Having demonstrated a robust ability to flip Perry voters blue, Stelson has a strong chance of netting the Democrats one more House seat.
Inside Elections: Tilt R | Cook Political Report: Tossup | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Tossup
Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District: Despite Rep. Jen Kiggan’s (R-VA) narrow victory in 2024 with just 50.7 percent of the vote, Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District swung for Gov.-Elect Abigail Spanberger last month, spelling trouble for the Republican incumbent. Now former Rep. Elaine Luria (D-VA), who Kiggans unseated in 2022, has returned to flip her district blue once more. However, with the endorsement of the president and over $2.8 million raised so far, Kiggans will not give up her seat easily, and Democrats may be in for a tough fight in the state’s most competitive district.
Inside Elections: Tossup | Cook Political Report: Tossup | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Tossup
Washington’s 3rd Congressional District: Washington’s 3rd Congressional District was held by Republican Jaime Herrera Beutler for 12 years, until Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-WA) flipped the seat blue in 2022. Having lost twice to Gluesenkamp Perez in 2022 and 2024, it does not appear that Republican Joe Kent will challenge her a third time. Instead, Washington Senate Minority Leader John Braun has emerged as the likely Republican nominee, although some have speculated that Washington State Republican Party Chair Jim Walsh may be eyeing a potential bid. Having overcome Donald Trump’s victory in her district last year, Gluesenkamp Perez is widely seen as the favorite in this race.
Inside Elections: Tilt D | Cook Political Report: Tossup | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Lean D
Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District: Held by Democrat Ron Kind since 1997, Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-WI) managed to flip Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District red by less than four points in 2022 and held it by a similar margin last year. Van Orden is now seeking a third term but given the district’s historic leanings, Democrats are eager to reclaim this once-blue stronghold. To do so, moderates and progressives alike are championing Rebecca Cooke, a former Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation board member and nominee for this district in 2024, who has already raised an impressive $2.9 million, closing in on Van Orden’s $3.4 million. While Cooke is no doubt a strong candidate, Van Orden has proven himself to be a tough opponent, representing one of the Democrats’ more ambitious targets.
Inside Elections: Tilt R | Cook Political Report: Tossup | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Tossup
Full List of Seats President Trump Won by Less Than 13 Points
Arizona’s 1st Congressional District - Rep. David Schweikert (R-AZ): President Trump won this district by 3.1 points.
Arizona’s 6th Congressional District – Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-AZ): This district went for President Trump by 0.7 points.
California’s 3rd Congressional District – Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-CA): President Trump won this district by 3.8 points.
California’s 22nd Congressional District – Rep. David Valadao (R-CA): The president carried this district by 5.8 points.
California’s 40th Congressional District – Rep. Young Kim (R-CA): This district went for President Trump by 2.3 points.
California’s 41st Congressional District – Rep. Ken Calvert (R-CA): President Trump won this district by 5.9 percent.
Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District – Rep. Jeff Hurd (R-CO): This district was carried by President Trump by 9.7 points.
Colorado’s 5th Congressional District – Rep. Jeff Crank (R-CO): This seat went for President Trump by 9.1 points.
Colorado’s 8th Congressional District – Rep. Gabe Evans (R-CO): President Trump won this district by 1.8 points.
Florida’s 4th Congressional District – Rep. Aaron Bean (R-FL): The president carried this district by 11.8 points.
Florida’s 7th Congressional District – Rep. Cory Mills (R-FL): This district went for President Trump by 12.5 points.
Florida’s 13th Congressional District – Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL): This seat went for President Trump by 11.9 points.
Florida’s 15th Congressional District – Rep. Laurel Lee (R-FL): President Trump carried this district by 11.2 points.
Iowa’s 1st Congressional District – Rep. Mariannette Miller Meeks (R-IA): The president won this district by 8.5 points.
Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District – Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA): This district went for President Trump by 10 points.
Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District – Rep. Zach Nunn (R-IA): The president carried this district by 4.4 points.
Michigan’s 4th Congressional District – Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-MI): President Trump won this district by 5.5 points.
Michigan’s 7th Congressional District – Rep. Tom Barrett (R-MI): This seat went for President Trump by 1.3 points.
Michigan’s 10th Congressional District – Rep. John James (R-MI): President Trump won this district by 6.5 points.
Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District – Rep. Brad Finstad (R-MN): The president carried this district by 12 points.
Missouri’s 2nd Congressional District – Rep. Ann Wagner (R-MO): President Trump won this district by 7.9 points.
Montana’s 1st Congressional District – Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-MT): This district went for President Trump by 11.6 points.
North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District – Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-NC): President Trump carried this district by 9.5 points.
New Jersey’s 2nd Congressional District – Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-NJ): This seat went for the president by 12.6 points.
New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District – Rep. Tom Kean (R-NJ): The president won this district by 1.2 points.
New York’s 1st Congressional District – Rep. Nick Lolota (R-NY): President Trump carried this district by 10 points.
New York’s 17th Congressional District – Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY): President Trump won this district by 0.6 points.
Ohio’s 7th Congressional District – Rep. Max Miller (R-OH): This district went for the President by 10.6 points.
Ohio’s 10th Congressional District – Rep. Mike Turner (R-OH): The president carried this seat by 5.7 points.
Ohio’s 15th Congressional District – Rep. Mike Carey (R-OH): President Trump won this seat by 9.2 points.
Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional District – Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA): This seat went for President Trump by 0.3 points.
Pennsylvania’s 7th Congressional District – Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-PA): The president won this district by 3.2 points.
Pennsylvania’s 8th Congressional District – Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-PA): President Trump carried this district by 8.5 points.
Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District – Rep. Scott Perry (R-PA): This district went for President Trump by 5.2 points.
Virginia’s 1st Congressional District – Rep. Rob Wittman (R-VA): The president carried this district by 4.9 points.
Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District – Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-VA): President Trump won this district by 0.2 points.
Virginia’s 5th Congressional District – Rep. John McGuire (R-VA): This district went for the president by 12.3 points.
Washington’s 5th Congressional District – Rep. Michael Baumgartner (R-WA): The president won this district by 10.8 points.
Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District – Rep. Bryan Steil (R-WI): President Trump carried this district by 4.5 points.
Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District – Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-WI): The president won this district by 7.4 points.
Conclusion
While pollsters have not yet provided definitive predictions in many of the races above, Democrats are cautiously optimistic about their odds of reclaiming the House in 2026. If next year’s midterms are treated by voters as a referendum on the president’s performance, it could spell trouble for the majority party. As campaigns intensify throughout 2026, these contests will test both parties' messages and mobilization strategies ahead of 2028 and define the last two years of this hugely consequential administration.