Outlook on the 2026 Senate Elections: Notable Developments at the Top of the Election Year
An Increasingly Competitive Electoral Landscape
Projections for the 2026 Senate elections have shifted toward a more competitive landscape since December, though according to leading political pundits, Republicans remain the overall favorites to retain a majority. While the map initially appeared lopsidedly in favor of the GOP, recent developments – including high-profile retirements, drop-offs in presidential approval, and specific candidate entries – have opened a narrow but viable path for Democrats to contest the chamber.
Make no mistake that a change in Senate control would require Democrats to sweep all four toss-up races – both seats where they are playing defense and seats currently held by Republicans where they are targeting pickups – while making inroads in traditionally red states like Texas or Iowa.
As a reminder, 33 Senate seats are up for grabs this year, along with two special elections in Florida and Ohio, bringing the total number of Senate contests this cycle to 35. Of the seats up for election, 22 are currently held by Republicans and 13 by Democrats. Republicans entered 2026 with a 53-47 majority, including two Independents who caucus with the Democrats. This means Democrats would need a net gain of four seats to reclaim control of the upper chamber outright.
The possibility of a 50-50 split appears more achievable for Democrats now than perhaps it did just a few months ago, particularly if current national trends continue. A 50-50 split would still leave Republicans in control due to Vice President J.D. Vance’s tie breaking authority but likely make governing more difficult for a Republican Senate majority in the 120th Congress, with implications for Republicans’ electability heading into 2028.
Recent Factors Influencing the 2026 Senate Map
A significant number of sitting Senators are either retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. In some cases, departures have been motivated by the increasing age of Members, with a median age of 64 for Senators serving in the 119th Congress, a nearly record-breaking high. Other Senators who are not planning to run to hold their current seats in the 120th Congress have expressed frustration with political polarization, legislative gridlock, and dysfunction in Washington.
As of today, nine incumbent Senators have announced they will not return in the 120th Congress, including five Republicans – Sens. Joni Ernst (R-IA), Cynthia Lummis (R-WY), Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Thom Tillis (R-NC), and Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) – and four Democrats – Sens. Dick Durbin (D-IL), Gary Peters (D-MI), Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), and Tina Smith (D-MN).
Additionally, Sens. Michael Bennet (D-CO) and Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) have announced gubernatorial bids. Neither Colorado nor Minnesota have “resign-to-run” laws, meaning that both Bennet and Klobuchar can maintain their Senate seats while running for governor. Bennet has explicitly stated his intentions to serve in the Senate while campaigning for the governorship and to remain in office until he becomes governor and can exercise the power to appoint his own Senate replacement. If he becomes governor, Bennet’s appointed successor would serve until the 2028 general election. If Klobuchar were to win and vacate her seat, the governor – either current Gov. Tim Walz or Klobuchar herself depending on the timing of her resignation – would appoint a temporary replacement until a special election is held for her Senate seat. If she loses the gubernatorial election, Klobuchar can continue to serve her full Senate term through 2030.
Beyond retirements, GOP incumbents are also taking note of alarming trends in President Donald Trump’s popularity and approval ratings. Conventional wisdom says that the sitting president's approval rating serves as a critical nationalized indicator for Senate races, acting as a litmus test for the incumbent party's performance. While candidate quality, salient national issues, and state-level dynamics can help a candidate who shares the same party affiliation as the president overcome slumping approval ratings, in modern, highly polarized environments, presidential popularity and Senate outcomes have become increasingly correlated, with voters often using their opinion of the president as a shortcut for deciding statewide contests.
As of February 2026, President Trump’s approval rating has reached a record low, currently hovering between 36 percent and 37 percent across national polls. This reflects a steady decline from the roughly 47 percent approval rating the president enjoyed at the start of his second term. The erosion of support is primarily linked to dissatisfaction with Trump’s handling of immigration, the economy, and government shutdowns, with notable dips in support observed amongst independents and young voters who were crucial to the president’s winning 2024 coalition. Political analysts suggest there is a 40 percent approval rating threshold to signal when low approval ratings could be a warning sign for the president’s party. In other words, if Trump’s approval ratings remain where they are today or drop further, historical trends predict that Democrats could be in for a good night on November 3.
On both sides of the aisle, candidate recruitment matters. Democrats may be feeling emboldened by Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer’s (D-NY) victories in recruiting high-profile, statewide winners to run for Republican-held or open seats. The Democratic minority may be feeling especially hopeful about the prospects of wins by Roy Cooper in North Carolina, Sherrod Brown in Ohio, Janet Mills in Maine, and Mary Peltola in Alaska. These candidates appear motivated by the high stakes of the 2026 midterms and the opportunity to play a personal role in potentially shifting Senate control or at least narrowing the margin for a Republican majority. New race entrants have led some race handicappers to shift their overall race ratings in some of these contests.
Meanwhile, the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) has set an ambitious goal of growing the current 53-seat Republican majority to a 55-seat majority, especially by targeting seats in battleground states like Georgia, Michigan, and New Hampshire. However, in many instances, the GOP has been challenged to navigate competitive internal primaries and consolidate support for candidates for key seats. There may be no better example than they three-way battle in the Texas Republican primary and President Trump’s reluctance to meaningfully weigh in on this race. Republicans have been slow to rally behind candidates competing for the seats being vacated by Sen. Ernst in Iowa and Sen. Tillis in North Carolina. They have also encountered recruitment failures, including the inability to convince the GOP’s choice candidate Gov. Brian Kemp to enter the Senate race in Georgia.
Developments in the Four True Toss-Up Contests
Georgia: Democrats are defending the seat held by Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) in a state President Trump carried in 2024. Ossoff has avoided a serious primary challenge, enters the general election with unified party support, and has already raised $54 million for his reelection bid. On the Republican side, the field remains unsettled with three candidates running in the primary after Gov. Kemp and former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) declined to get into the race. Rep. Mike Collins (R-GA) emerged as an early contender and currently leads in primary polling, though President Trump has not yet issued a formal endorsement even as Collins is the only Republican candidate to statistically tie with Ossoff in a hypothetical general election matchup. In GOP primary polls, Collins is trailed by sitting Rep. Buddy Carter (R-GA) and Derek Dooley, the former football coach endorsed by Gov. Kemp. The primary is scheduled for May 19 with a primary runoff slated for June 16, if necessary.
Inside Elections: Tossup | Cook Political Report: Tossup | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Tossup
Maine: On February 10, five-term incumbent Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) officially launched her reelection campaign. While she holds a significant financial advantage, with over $8 million in cash on hand as of early 2026, Collins is viewed as one of, if not the most vulnerable Republican incumbent because she is the only one defending a seat in a state won by Democratic nominee Kamala Harris in 2024. GOP polling presents mixed views regarding Collins’ popularity in the state. On the Democratic side, Gov. Mills remains the establishment favorite, though progressive challenger Graham Platner continues to maintain grassroots support ahead of the June 9 primary. Polling for the Democratic Senate primary presents a conflicting picture, with early independent polling showing Mills in the lead and surveys sponsored by progressive groups and campaigns showing a substantial advantage for Platner. Both candidates are in a dead heat with Collins in hypothetical general election matchups, with polls most recently within the margin of error. Maine will use ranked-choice voting for both the primary and general elections, which could influence the outcome if no candidate wins an outright majority.
Inside Elections: Tilt Republican | Cook Political Report: Tossup | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Tossup
Michigan: The 2026 Michigan Senate election is currently in the primary phase to determine who will succeed retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI), who narrowly won reelection in 2020. Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI) has emerged as the moderate frontrunner in the Democratic primary, backed by several prominent figures in Michigan politics. However, she faces stiff competition from progressive challengers. One January 2026 poll found State Sen. Mallory McMorrow narrowly leading Stevens. Former Detroit health director Abdul El-Sayed is also running in the Democratic primary, positioning himself as the anti-corporate-money choice. Whoever wins the August 4 primary will face 2024 Senate nominee and former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-MI) in the general election. While Stevens edges out Rogers by about five points in most recent hypothetical general election matchups, McMorrow also bests the former Congressman by about three points. Rogers has consolidated support, secured President Trump’s endorsement, and accumulated a cash on hand advantage. However, it remains to be see whether Rogers will strategically align or distance himself from the president, especially as Trump has recently seen declining favorability ratings in Michigan after narrowly carrying the state in 2024.
Inside Elections: Tossup | Cook Political Report: Tossup | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Tossup
North Carolina: Early in-person voting is now underway in the North Carolina primary ahead of the formal primary election on March 3. Following Sen. Thom Tillis’ (R-NC) retirement announcement on the heels of a public spat with President Trump, Democrats were quick to rally behind former Gov. Roy Cooper, who has demonstrated consistent statewide electability. While there are five other candidates running in the Democratic primary, Cooper is thought to be on a glidepath to becoming the Democratic nominee. The Republican primary field is crowded, with seven candidates making bids to become the party’s nominee for the open Seante seat. The GOP has increasingly consolidated support and is expected to nominate Michael Whatley, the former chair of the Republican National Committee (R-NC). Whatley has received strong backing from President Trump and Senate GOP leadership. Polling from early 2026 has consistently shown Cooper leading Whatley by six to eight points in a hypothetical general election matchup. This race is expected to be a nailbiter for both parties, with strategists now predicting it could be the most expensive Senate race in history, with projected spending between $600 million and $800 million.
Inside Elections: Tossup | Cook Political Report: Tossup | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Tossup
Other Races to Watch
Alaska: While previously considered a safe seat for Republicans, the ratings for incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan’s (R-AK) seat have shifted following former Rep. Mary Peltola’s (D-AK) January entrance into the race, though several lesser known candidates have also filed or expressed interest in running. While many Republicans still view this race as Sullivan’s to lose, Democrats have more recently come to see the contest for this Alaska Senate seat as a pickup opportunity critical to regaining a Senate majority. In fact, polling following Peltola’s announcement of her candidacy found her besting Sullivan by two points in a hypothetical general election matchup. As evidence of how close this race is, both frontrunner candidates have sought to position themselves as champions for local priorities, with Peltola’s platform focused on “fish, family, and freedom,” and Sullivan touting his record on energy and military investment. Outside groups are also spending big in Alaska, with millions of dollars pouring into early advertisements. This race will ultimately be decided by Alaska’s top four primary system followed by ranked choice voting in the general election. Ranked choice voting in Alaska is largely credited for helping Peltola win her U.S. House seat in 2022.
Inside Elections: Lean Republican | Cook Political Report: Lean Republican | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Lean Republican
Iowa: The 2026 Iowa Senate race is an open-seat contest following two-term incumbent Sen. Ernst’s decision not to seek reelection. While Iowa has trended Republican in recent cycles, leading political pundits no longer consider this an entirely safe seat for the GOP. Facing a map that presents few pickup opportunities, Democrats have added Iowa to their list of seats that could flip. Since the start of this year, the race has seen significant consolidation around high profile candidates. For the GOP, Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) has emerged as the frontrunner and holds a substantial financial lead over other contenders, with over $5.1 million in cash-on-hand at the end of 2025. With endorsements from both President Trump and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD), Hinson will compete for the GOP nomination against former State Sen. Jim Carlin in the June 2 primary. On the Democratic side, the race has effectively narrowed to a two-person contest with polls showing stark competition. State Rep. Josh Turek gained significant momentum following the withdrawals of Nathan Sage and J.D. Scholten, both of whom endorsed him. Meanwhile, State Sen. Zach Wahls, who enjoys a slight fundraising advantage over Turek, holds endorsements from at least 18 local unions and major labor leaders. Both Democratic candidates perform similarly in a hypothetical general election matchup against Hinson, who currently leads each Democratic candidate by roughly three points.
Inside Elections: Likely Republican | Cook Political Report: Likely Republican | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Likely Republican
Ohio: Ohio will hold a special election to fill the seat vacated by Vice President Vance. While Ohio has shifted rightward in recent cycles, Democrats believe national headwinds could narrow the margin in what is currently considered by most to be a Republican favored race. Interim Sen. Jon Husted (R-OH), who was appointed by Gov. Mike DeWine to temporarily fill the vacant seat, officially launched his campaign in December and has since secured President Trump’s endorsement. In a major recruitment victory for Democrats, former Sen. Sherrod Brown (R-OH), who lost his seat to Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-OH) in 2024, is mounting a comeback bid and has easily emerged as the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. As we approach the May 5 Ohio primary elections, Husted and Brown appear to be in a dead heat, with some polls showing Husted ahead and others favoring Brown in a hypothetical general election matchup. Both candidates have built significant war chests, with Brown raising $8 million and Husted raking in $3.7 million in the final quarter of 2025.
Inside Elections: Lean Republican | Cook Political Report: Lean Republican | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Lean Republican
New Hampshire: While Democrats have held the Senate seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) since 2009, Republicans view the open seat as a pickup opportunity. The race features high-profile figures from both parties. On the Democratic side, Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH) is likely to win the Democratic nomination in the state’s September 8 primary, overcoming a challenge from technology executive Karishma Manzur. For the GOP, former Sen. John Sununu’s (R-NH) entrance into the race is seen as boosting Republican prospects for a pickup in New Hampshire, though former Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA), who served as U.S. ambassador to New Zealand during the first Trump Administration and previously pursued this seat in 2014, remains a candidate. Earlier this month, President Trump endorsed Sununu’s candidacy. While Pappas and Sununu appear to be the most competitive contenders in their respective primaries, recent general election polling shows Pappas with a roughly five point lead over Sununu in a hypothetical November matchup.
Inside Elections: Tilt Democrat | Cook Political Report: Lean Democrat | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Lean Democrat
Texas: Early voting is now underway in the Texas primary scheduled for March 3, with a primary runoff slated for May 26, if no candidate secures a majority. Intensity has been building in primary contests on both sides of the aisle. The Republican primary is a three-way battle between long-time incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-TX). The race has become a flashpoint between the GOP’s traditional guard most aligned with Cornyn and the party’s conservative wing represented by Paxton, with President Trump withholding an endorsement and recently offering his support for all three Republican candidates. While Cornyn holds a significant financial advantage with roughly $10 million raised compared to Paxton’s $5.3 million, recent polls show Paxton leading in both a three-way race and a probable runoff against Cornyn. Democrats have yet to consolidate support for a presumptive nominee, but the party is feeling energized about the odds of a pickup in Texas following a stunning upset in the January special election for Texas State Senate District 9, where Democratic candidate Taylor Rehmet flipped a district that President Trump carried by 17 points in 2024. An early February poll found vocal Trump opponent Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) besting slightly more moderate State Rep. James Talarico in the primary contest. However, Talarico has very recently seen an uptick in name recognition and momentum after late night television host Stephen Colbert accused CBS of blocking his broadcast interview with the candidate due to fears of federal regulatory retaliation. The current dynamics in this race make it one that will continue to attract attention and resources from both parties as we approach the general election in November.
Inside Elections: Likely Republican | Cook Political Report: Likely Republican | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Likely Republican
Conclusion
With months to go before voters cast their ballots, much will depend on primary outcomes, candidate positioning, and national political conditions in the days and weeks ahead. What is clear today is that neither Republicans nor Democrats can take for granted that control of the chamber is now in play. The outcome of the Senate elections in November will shape legislative dynamics during the final two years of President Trump’s term and are certain to influence party momentum heading into the 2028 election cycle.