Political Insights: Impeachment and Presidential Campaigns

With the recent political events surrounding the impeachment inquiry and developments in presidential campaigns, we believe this recess is particularly important.

Impeachment’s Impact on Governing in Washington

We think there are two camps, one, in “melt down mode,” and the other, who views the need to govern, to walk and chew gum at the same time through the impeachment investigation. For Speaker Pelosi, she has to move forward with the inquiry. But for some in the Democratic caucus, especially some of those new members who won in traditionally conservative districts, they can’t go home and expect to win if they only have “worked on impeaching the president” on their list of accomplishments. They need USMCA, drug pricing, etc. It’s clear Speaker Pelosi needs a win on issues like these in order to maintain that portion of the caucus and retain the gavel in 2020. They need to demonstrate they can govern. This is why we think the speaker is interested in wrapping up the process by Thanksgiving, so she can return her attention fully to legislating. We understand that some moderates even view a vote on impeachment as more doable, particularly if they can hang it on national security, than a vote on Medicare for All or the Green New Deal.

It’s less clear on the presidential side, because the White House is so unpredictable. Any possibility for governing through the proceeding presumes President Trump adopts the “Clinton model,” so there’s a huge question as to whether he follows President Clinton’s lead and lets the impeachment proceeding be background noise while he governs on other issues. Remember, John Podesta as Clinton’s Chief of Staff banned anyone in White House meetings from talking about impeachment unless that was the purpose of the meeting and the particular staff was involved in the process – the perfect example of how Clinton and Podesta were so fixated on continuing to govern!

On the other hand, and we’re already seeing some evidence of this, does the president see the situation as an opportunity to point fingers at congressional Democrats? To say they don’t want to govern, they want to delegitimize his presidency, they want to shut down the government, they don’t want to let the president “do anything….” Additionally, the president could use the situation to give him the excuse to not address gun control, drug pricing, and the declining economy. If this is the direction it goes, it could be disastrous for American policymaking.  We know the president wants to get USMCA across the finish line, but that may not be enough. And it’s increasingly hard to see how President Trump becomes “Clinton-like.”

Speaker Pelosi’s top legislative priorities for the fall are USMCA and drug pricing, and we are still optimistic that both congressional Democrats and the Administration want badly enough to be able to take credit for getting these two items across the finish line that they are successful in doing so. We also understand the White House reached out to at least one Democratic Senator who supports the impeachment inquiry to indicate that the Administration still wanted to work with him on gun control. Ultimately, we also believe appropriations get done, if not this year, then next, in a piecemeal approach. We envision this occurring via three or four packages, with the final one, likely including the more controversial bills such as Labor-HHS, Defense, and Homeland Security, serving as a vehicle for traditional year-end riders – tax extenders, medical extenders, perhaps even some bipartisan energy legislation. Bottom line, there’s the positive spin that we can walk and chew gum at the same time in terms of legislating. At the same time, we have an unpredictable White House that may make it impossible to do that.

Presidential Campaign Developments

In the meantime, Democrat presidential candidates continue to prepare for the 2020 elections. The next debate is scheduled for October 15, and we are less than four months from the first primary election. 

The conventional wisdom in Democratic circles is a nervousness around whether Vice President Biden is up to the job of becoming president. There’s a fear, even amongst Biden supporters, that he may not be the same politician he once was, that he may not be capable of serving as Commander in Chief; add the controversy with Ukraine, and his electability is increasingly a concern.

Senator Warren has a plan for everything and is raising and spending money wisely. Yet there’s also some anxiety about the sum total of the plans, and her the extent to which she’s taking her campaign left  -- support for Medicare for All, the Green New Deal, free college tuition, etc. – is a concern for some moderates.

The question around Senator Sanders is –do you still feel the Bern? He’s already losing some supporters to Sen. Warren, and with his recent health scare, voters can’t help but face his age and mortality.

Senator Harris launched her campaign on so much promise, but is seemingly turning into the Democratic Marco Rubio of this cycle. Her star was on the rise, and now she’s tied with Mayor Pete.

Latest polls are creating the feeling that we’re in a two person race between Biden and Warren, both are up 6-8 points from the last round of polling against the president.

Recess and Moving Into the October-Thanksgiving Work Period

In many cases, members are not hearing much about impeachment back in their states and districts over the recess thus far. In something of a surprise to some members, they’re experiencing a much higher number of questions about what they’re doing on infrastructure, drug pricing, trade, and other issues that directly impact the daily lives of constituents than they are about their stances on the impeachment proceedings.

From the legislative perspective, we anticipate when members return, they are eager to wrap up the impeachment inquiry while also focusing their sights on USMCA, drug pricing and surprise medical bills, and the surface transportation reauthorization before finalizing or otherwise making some progress on appropriations, NDAA, and an end of the year tax and “catch all” package.