Post-Election Analysis: Senate and House Committee Musical Chairs

Although Vice President Biden has been declared the winner of the presidential contest, we are still waiting for final results in a number of Congressional races. In the meantime, our team has been hard at work updating our House and Senate musical chairs analyses to reflect how what we know about the elections results so far will impact committee membership and leadership in the 117th Congress.

Senate Musical Chairs

According to the Associated Press, it has been determined that Democrats will hold at least 48 seats and Republicans will hold at least 50 seats in the Senate in the 117th Congress.

It is now clear that runoff elections will be held for both GA Senate races on January 5. While incumbent Sen. Perdue best Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff, Libertarian Shane Hazel was able to get enough votes so that neither candidate cleared the 50 percent threshold required for an outright win. Similarly, the GA special election will head to a runoff between Sen. Loeffler and Democratic challenger Raphael Warnock.

To help you better visualize the impacts of the elections results so far, our document is coded to reflect members who will not be returning in the 117th Congress, including those who are retiring or who have lost reelection, including Sens. Gardner, McSally, and Jones. Races where results have not been finalized are highlighted in yellow. 

Similar to previous iterations of our analysis, this document continues to track potential changes in committee leadership. Republican term limits permit a senator to serve both six years as chairman and six years as ranking member of the same committee and also allow Republican senators to use sitting chairs or ranking members when control of the chamber switches parties. At this point, we are unlikely to know for certain who will control the Senate until January, although the probability that Democrats will flip the chamber is slim.

To access our full Senate analysis, please click here.

House Musical Chairs

Unsurprisingly, Democrats have retained control of the House. However, contrary to polling and pundits’ predictions headed into Election Day, the Democratic majority will narrow due to Republicans better than expected performance in flipping seats. As of this morning, the Associated Press has declared Democrats will hold 218 seats and Republicans will hold 201 seats in the House at the start of the 117th Congress. Sixteen races remain too close to call.

Similar to our Senate analysis, our House document is coded to reflect members who will not be returning in the 117th Congress. This includes members who have announced retirements, given up their seats to run for another political office, or lost their primary or general election races. Contests that have yet to be called are highlighted in yellow. 

As a reminder, term limit rules are less complicated in the House. Republicans have term limits of six cumulative years as chairman and ranking member and, like in the Senate, Democrats have no term limits. Notably, Agriculture Committee Chairman Rep. Peterson lost reelection this week and House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Eliot Engel lost his primary race earlier this cycle. In other instances, we see committee chairs and ranking members retiring. This means the leadership of committees in the 117th Congress is now likely to depend on the biannual jockeying for gavels. 

To access our full House analysis, please click here.

House Democrats plan to hold their leadership elections November 18-19. In all likelihood, the Democratic Steering and Policy Committee will likely meet the week after Thanksgiving to nominate committee chairs. House Republicans have not yet announced a timeline for determining their party and committee leadership for next year.

For additional information on House leadership contests, please click here.

Looking Ahead

As the final margins in the Senate and House become clear and we learn more about committee ratios, we plan to update and expand these documents to reflect seats that each party may gain or lose on each committee, as well as members who may be at risk of losing a seat due to changing committee ratios. We will also be probing for intel about members who are pursuing slots on specific committees.