T-150 Days to Election Day
HERE WE ARE, 150 DAYS before Election Day--and, in the middle of a pandemic, economic downturn, and serious social unrest--here’s what our national dialogue looks like:
CORONAVIRUS: While the nation has been captivated by discussions of racial justice, the COVID-19 pandemic is ongoing. President Donald Trump recently announced the U.S. would withdraw entirely from the World Health Organization (WHO). Nationwide protests have begun at the same time many cities and states are entering phase 1 of their reopening plans. Governors and mayors across the country are urging that protestors get tested for COVID-19 infection. In May, the U.S. passed the milestone of 100,000 confirmed COVID-19 deaths, with the real toll likely much higher. President Trump continues to defend his response to the pandemic, but critics level accusations of inaction and ignorance. Public health officials fear that we will see a surge in cases due to mass protests across the nation, and already, we are seeing elevated case counts from Memorial Day festivities.
ECONOMIC RECESSION AND HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT: Since mid-March, the unemployment rate has skyrocketed to 13.3 percent. Millions filed for unemployment and non-essential businesses, such as retail and many services, were shut down to prevent the spread of the novel coronavirus. The stock market, which President Trump has fixated on as a singular measure of economic strength, has experienced a massive decrease in value and is struggling to begin a return to its previous numbers. President Trump recently finalized the USMCA trade agreement and is looking to strengthen the position of American exporters through further trade deals, mostly in Europe. However, the incendiary words and actions of the Trump Administration towards the Government of China may be jeopardizing any chance of a free trade agreement with that country. One of President Trump’s first actions in office was to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a trade deal involving many of the Pacific Rim nations. The administration has not presented a viable alternative to this agreement and has been locked out of the region in many industries.
SOCIAL UNREST: Since the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis Police custody on May 25, the U.S. has seen daily protests, the overwhelming majority of which have been peaceful, in all 50 states. Protesters are demanding reforms in American policing, including more robust training and more reliance on de-escalation. Some protesters are demanding that police departments across the country receive budget cuts, particularly in programs that supply these departments with military-grade equipment. President Trump has taken a strong stance against these protests, choosing to focus on a small number of people who have been seen in news reports smashing store windows and looting in major cities. On June 1, the president and Attorney General Bill Barr ordered that a peaceful protest in Lafayette Square, next to the White House, be dispersed by federal police forces using irritant gases and pepper spray. Protesters on the scene claim that tear gas was used. Vice President Joe Biden left his home to give a speech in support of peaceful protests and to condemn the use of force against them by police. On June 4, at Mr. Floyd’s memorial service, Reverend Al Sharpton announced he is planning a march for racial justice in August to coincide with the anniversary of the March on Washington.
THOSE ARE THE MAJOR FACTORS that will influence the ongoing campaign for the November 2020 elections. The Senate and the Presidency are up for grabs, and either party could feasibly walk away claiming victory.
PRESIDENTIAL RACE: According to recent polling, the Electoral College is currently split with 232 Democratic votes and 204 Republican votes. At the moment, there are still 102 votes declared toss-ups. It will be important to closely monitor races in Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. 270 Electoral College votes are needed to win the election showing that these toss-up states may make the difference of who will win the presidency. With both candidates holding similar approval ratings, Trump’s being 41.9 percent, and Biden’s being 45 percent, either candidate has a likely chance of winning the race.
SENATE CAMPAIGNS: The Senate has been closely divided since the beginning of the Trump Presidency. The current balance of the Senate is 53 Republicans to 47 Democrats, including two independents who caucus with the Democrats. Republicans are defending 19 seats this year, while Democrats need only defend 11. As such, the Democrats are looking to close the gap. Races in Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Arizona show promise for Democratic gains this year. However, Democrats could lose a seat in Alabama.
HOUSE CONTESTS: Democrats took control of the House of Representatives in the “blue wave” election of 2018. The balance of the House is now 233 Democrats to 197 Republicans. There is a lone Libertarian serving in the House, Congressman Justin Amash, as well as four vacant seats. Democrats feel confident they can increase their majority, and there is not much of a chance that Republicans will win the 218 races necessary to regain control of the House. Democrats will almost certainly pick up two seats in North Carolina, thanks to court-ordered redistricting. Democrats are also focusing on a number of swing districts where Republican incumbents are retiring, such as Texas’ 23rd Congressional District.
Click here for more detailed reporting on recent polling, as well as additional Plurus Strategies observations and analysis.