A Guide to the 2022 Congressional Elections
Last Updated: June 29, 2022
HERE WE ARE, 144 DAYS before Election Day. President Joe Biden's approval rating is dipping below 40 percent, and the generic ballot is leaning favorably towards Republicans, but as a Gallup poll concluded on June 14, it's a "typical pattern." With the nation recording over one million COVID deaths, spiraling inflation, and record-high oil prices, a televised high-profile investigation into an attack on our nation's democracy, and intense division over fundamental rights, including guns and abortion, here is our quick analysis of how the political environment is and will continue affecting voters over the next few months:
THE PANDEMIC IS OVER? In recent months, the Biden administration has reportedly been discussing how many daily COVID-19 infections there would need to be to claim victory over the pandemic. Much of the focus now centers on deaths and hospitalizations rather than infections. U.S. deaths surpassed the one million mark in May, and roughly 2,000 Americans continue to die from the virus every week. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has forecasted that deaths will continue to rise as infection numbers soar across the country. At the same time, last week, the U.S. finally lifted the requirement for all travelers entering the country to present a negative COVID-19 test, hinting at a post-pandemic world. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) will soon likely give the green light for Moderna's and Pfizer/BioNTech's shots for those six months and older, meaning nearly all Americans will be eligible to be vaccinated. While the pandemic is no longer scoring as a major factor in election polls, Americans are desperate for normalcy. A May poll from Axios-Ipsos showed that one in three Americans said the pandemic is over. However, the same survey showed that at least half do not think their lives will return to pre-pandemic times. It reflects a nation exhausted by more than two years of unprecedented times.
SPIRALING INFLATION AND RECORD OIL PRICES: The economy always tops voters' priorities. Despite the initial bounce back from the pandemic, unprecedented growth and the war in Ukraine have placed intense pressure on the global economy. President Biden has a planned visit to Saudi Arabia next month, but economists predict that inflation, including rising gas prices, will not ease before November. The unemployment rate sits at a near-record 3.6 percent, yet job security is not necessarily a top issue this year.
A SECONDARY ISSUE: WAR IN UKRAINE: The U.S. may be thousands of miles away from the battlefield in Ukraine, but the nation has shown it will still unite in support of a common cause. On June 15, the administration announced an additional $1 billion in aid to Ukraine, adding to the already appropriated $40 billion package. However, at the moment, the war is a secondary issue to the nation's economic and domestic issues. Some Democrats are hopeful that the administration's handling of Ukraine will offset the negative impact of the withdrawal from Afghanistan, but there are still months between now and Election Day, and something going awry with the war could change the outlook.
GUNS, ABORTION, AND DEMOCRACY: Guns and abortion are two issues Republicans hope to wrap up before November, but both will likely remain in voters’ minds. In the wake of multiple mass shootings, the Senate is coalescing around a bipartisan deal, but even the eleven Senate Republicans who are reportedly committed to the bill, including Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), cannot ignore the reality that likely all House Republicans and conservative challengers running in national races will oppose the legislation. Further, the Supreme Court is expected to overturn a New York law regarding concealed carry, which could have implications in other states that currently have limits on gun ownership. The Supreme Court is also expected to overturn Roe v. Wade, but the leaked draft of the majority opinion has likely already dealt as much of a political blow as it can. Once final decisions are released, all the focus and news headlines will shift to the states as each enacts its own laws. Meanwhile, voters continue to watch the ongoing investigation into the attack on the Capitol. It is unclear whether judicial action can be taken now, but Democrats hope its prospects will attract swing voters. A final report will not be completed until September, just weeks before early voting begins.
THOSE ARE THE MAJOR FACTORS that will influence the ongoing campaigns for 35 seats in the Senate (including the special election in Oklahoma), 435 seats in the House, and many competitive statewide races in play this November. The conventional wisdom regarding off-year elections is that the party out of power should perform well.
SENATE CAMPAIGNS: The Senate has been closely divided since the beginning of the Biden Administration. There is currently a 50/50 split in the Senate with two Independents caucusing with the Democrats. Vice President Kamala Harris votes with Democrats to break a tie. 51 seats are needed to control the chamber. As of today, one Democrat and five Republicans have announced they will not be seeking reelection. Four Democratic seats (Arizona, Georgia, New Hampshire, and Nevada) and two Republican seats (Wisconsin and Pennsylvania) are expected to be highly competitive. However, Republicans are also defending seats in Ohio and North Carolina.
HOUSE CONTESTS: Democrats maintained control of the House of Representatives in 2020, but Republicans narrowed the margin from 35 to just nine. The balance of the House now sits at 220 Democrats to 209 Republicans, with six vacancies. 218 seats are needed to control the chamber. As of today, 59 members have announced they will not be returning to the 118th Congress, including 35 Democrats and 24 Republicans. Congressional redistricting was thought to be in Democrats' favor, but thanks to plans like those in Florida and New York, the environment is much more Republican-leaning. With roughly 28 seats being rated a toss-ups, political pundits have predicted a "red wave" in November.
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