Plurus Strategies Weekly Update: Gun Control, Ukraine, Competitiveness Package & Other Activity in Washington
Gun Control
On Sunday, a bipartisan group of 20 Senators announced agreement on a framework for gun safety legislation. The proposal includes enhanced background checks for gun purchasers under the age of 21, grant funding to incentivize states to implement red flag laws, resources for mental health and school safety, new barriers on straw purchases, and a provision to prevent individuals convicted of domestic violence against a partner they were dating from buying firearms. Notably lacking from the plan are the overarching expansion of background checks, assault weapons ban, and increase in age eligibility to purchase guns sought by Democrats. Regardless, the handshake on principles represents a step forward towards the most significant gun control legislation considered in decades.
The initial reactions to Sunday’s announcement have prompted cautious optimism that passage of gun legislation could be within reach. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) signaled his intent to move the proposal quickly and President Joe Biden indicated he would sign the bipartisan agreement into law. While initially stopping short of endorsing the proposal, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) lauded the progress in bipartisan talks and expressed hope that the final legislative language will prioritize mental health and school safety. He has since said if the final legislation reflects the framework, he will support the bill.
The tricky task at hand is now to translate the principles supported by the bipartisan group into bill text. Potential hurdles remain, including the need to strike a deal on funding levels for the agreed upon programs and offsets, especially as Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) has stated that the legislation will be entirely paid for. Though there is no bill yet, some estimates suggest the price tag of the proposal could be in the $15-$20 billion range. Offsets might include unused money for infrastructure projects “left over” from the bipartisan infrastructure law and a Medicare rebate. Multiple Senators have said “the devil will be in the details.”
Bipartisan cooperation will be necessary to maintain the support of the 11 Republicans, including Leader McConnell, who have publicly backed the framework. In addition to Sens. John Cornyn (R-TX) and Thom Tillis (R-NC), who served as the lead negotiators for Republicans, original backers of the proposal include Sens. Rob Portman (R-OH), Pat Toomey (R-PA), Roy Blunt (R-MO), and Richard Burr (R-NC), who are all retiring this year; Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME), Bill Cassidy (R-LA), and Lindsey Graham (R-SC), who are not in cycle until 2026, and Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT), who is in cycle in 2024. It is not expected that any Republican who is currently in cycle will ultimately vote for the legislation.
The bipartisan negotiators appear keenly aware that there is a narrow window for passing the bill and we have been told that work is underway to “feverishly draft” the bill. Sen. Cornyn has indicated that bill text could be available as soon as this week, but following a Wednesday night meeting of core negotiators, he identified sticking points around red flag laws and the “boyfriend loophole” that could result in the package getting parred down. The group is expected to meet again today.
Assuming there is a deal on text, Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) has said the bill will likely bypass the Senate Judiciary Committee and head straight to the floor. We are hearing that Democratic leadership would ideally like to see the bill pass both chambers by July 1, especially as we are picking up some skepticism the bill will pass at all if negotiations drag into or beyond the July 4 recess. However, for the bill to be considered next week, legislative text likely needs to be finalized by tomorrow. The closer the midterms get, the more eager the GOP will be to refocus its messaging on inflation and the economy.
In the meantime, we anticipate Democrats who wield gavels will continue to leverage their committee posts to keep a spotlight on gun violence. For example, yesterday the Senate Judiciary Committee convened a hearing titled “Protecting America’s Children from Gun Violence.” Meanwhile, the House Rules Committee held a hearing on “Tools to Combat Gun Trafficking and Reduce Gun Violence in Our Communities,” while the House Judiciary Committee marked up the Active Shooter Alert Act, which would create new alerts to share information with the public about active shooters in their communities, and the VICTIM Act, which would support investigations of shootings and programs for victims.
War in Ukraine
This week, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin hosted the third meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting in Brussels. Convening representatives of 48 nations, Secretary Austin led the group in discussions on ongoing coordination of security assistance for Ukraine. The talks resulted in announcements of new donations, including high priority artillery and multiple launch rocket systems. Secretary Austin also met privately with Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov to provide an update on U.S. security assistance efforts and receive a briefing on battlefield conditions in the Donbas region.
On Wednesday, the Biden Administration announced $1 billion in additional support for Ukraine, including an authorization of a presidential draw down valued at up to $350 million, as well as $650 million in Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) funds. The package includes Howitzers, ammunition, tactical vehicles, Harpoon coastal defense systems, secure radios, night vision devices, and funding for training, maintenance, sustainment, transportation, and administrative costs. This week’s announcements bring U.S. security assistance to Ukraine under the Biden Administration to $6.3 billion, including $5.6 billion since the start of the Russian invasion. There are rumors the administration is also considering providing Ukraine with armed drones. In addition to security assistance, President Biden has announced an additional $225 million in humanitarian assistance to help people inside Ukraine.
We continue to hear it is likely the Biden Administration will approach Congress to request an additional aid package for Ukraine, assuming the war continues at its current clip. As a reminder, the last $40 billion aid package enacted in May was envisioned to support Ukraine for five months. This means the White House could be approaching the Hill with its hands out in October, just before the midterm elections and likely before the fiscal year 2023 (FY23) appropriations cycle has concluded. If inflation, gas prices, and other domestic issues remain in the spotlight, it is likely to be more difficult for another tranche of aid to move through Congress.
In the meantime, the Biden Administration has maintained efforts to weaken the Russian economy, including by releasing new guidance aimed to wind down science and technology partnerships between U.S. federal agencies and research institutions and Russian-government affiliated research entities and researchers. While export controls and sanctions have been used to try to cut off Putin’s access to technologies that are needed to sustain the war effort in Ukraine, we are starting to hear there may be division within the administration on how to proceed with additional sanctions. Some are of the view that these tools take some time to work and are advocating for patience in assessing their overall effectiveness, while others are hoping to pinpoint new targets for sanctions and export controls. In addition, there are growing concerns about the impacts of sanctions on inflation, global food insecurity, and everyday Russians.
French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, and Romanian President Klaus Iohannis met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv today, where they pledged support for Ukraine’s E.U. candidacy. On the ground, fighting between Russian troops and Ukrainian forces intensified in the Donbas region. Over the weekend, Russian fighters destroyed a bridge connecting Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk, cutting off an evacuation route for civilians. Two other essential bridges critical for evacuating wounded residents were also eliminated by the Russians. Throughout the week, it was speculated that Russia was increasing its control in the area, with its troops holding 80 percent of the city of Sievierodonetsk. Previously home to more than 100,000 people, some estimates suggest that all but 12,000 Ukrainians have fled. Despite Russian advances, reports indicate that Russian manpower and weapons are dwindling, which could soon put Putin in the position of scaling back operations or pursuing a mass mobilization to call up soldiers to fight.
U.S. Innovation and Competition Act (USICA)/America COMPETES Act Conference
As you may have seen, press reports surfaced late last week suggesting that several factors, including political challenges and other priorities evolving into bigger distractions for leadership, could derail the USICA/America COMPETES Act conference. Despite concerns about topline spending and some thinking that Republicans may be growing increasing reluctant to give President Biden a win so close to the midterms, our sources unanimously tell us they think a compromise bill gets done.
One sign that conference negotiations are making progress is new compromise language that has recently surfaced to address concerns about outbound private sector investment, including in China. This week, Sens. Bob Casey (D-PA) and Cornyn and Reps. Rosa DeLauro (D-CT), Bill Pascrell (D-NJ), Mike McCaul (R-TX), Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA), and Victoria Spartz (R-IN) began circulating a draft proposal to establish a new oversight panel to review and potentially deny new U.S. investment in adversarial nations over national security concerns. The draft language would also require American companies investing in China to disclose new investments in key sectors, including semiconductors, batteries, and pharmaceuticals.
There has been an effort underway for all committees to close out their portions of the bill this week so that unresolved issues can be bumped up to the leadership level. Progress comes as the CEOs of more than 120 companies sent a letter to Congressional leadership urging the completion of compromise bipartisan and bicameral competitiveness legislation that can be sent to the president for signature.
Leader Schumer and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) were briefed on the status of conference negotiations on Tuesday evening. During this meeting, there was some discussion of “slimming down” the package in order to expedite the path to a compromise bill. Our instincts tell us this means that labor, climate, trade, and tax provisions could ultimately be left on the cutting room floor. However, thinning out the package could boost the chances a competitiveness bill is sent to the president before the August recess.
Build Back Better (BBB)/Reconciliation
For now, things continue to be quiet on reconciliation. Democrats tell us that Leader Schumer and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) are holding their talks close to the vest, although high-level reports suggest that they are making progress. In this case, we think the fact that we are hearing less about reconciliation means there could soon be a deal. We are hard pressed to identify a previous occasion where Congress adopted a reconciliation vehicle and the majority was ultimately unable to pass a package. For this reason, most Democrats remain optimistic there is a narrow BBB-like deal to be had.
We were with Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) this week. He shared his view that some “slimmed back version of BBB” will get done before the August recess. His gut instinct is that it will include Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies, prescription drug pricing reform, and clean energy provisions. However, he indicated that he and Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) are continuing to push for provisions to make childcare more affordable.
It is our understanding that energy could be the last piece of the package to get worked out, as it is possible that some of the policies Sen. Manchin is hoping could be included would ultimately get knocked out under the Byrd rule. The expectation is that there could be roughly $400 billion in clean energy tax breaks included in a reconciliation measure. The overall package would likely include somewhere just north of $1 trillion in tax revenue and meet Sen. Manchin’s earlier demand that half of the total raised be allocated for deficit reduction.
At this point, the White House has taken the position that it will accept any deal that can be struck between Leader Schumer and Sen. Manchin and win enough Democratic support to pass both chambers. However, there are concerns that the clock is ticking, time is running out, and wrangling endangered Democratic incumbents could become increasingly difficult the closer a vote on a reconciliation package gets to the midterm elections. There seems to be growing pressure to finalize a framework before the July 4 recess, with the thinking this might be necessary to get the bill written, reviewed for Byrd rule violations, and scored in time for a vote-a-rama to be backed up against the August recess. If an agreement is not announced before July 4, the prospects for reconciliation likely decrease.
FY23 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA)
Following last week’s House Armed Services Committee (HASC) subcommittee markups, this week the NDAA marched on with subcommittee and full committee markups in the Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC). As a reminder, SASC considers its annual defense bill primarily in closed sessions. However, we already know that SASC has adopted a defense topline that is roughly $45 billion higher than the president’s FY23 budget request. One defense staffer told us this morning that initial press releases from the committee should be out “shortly.” We do not anticipate having access to legislative text and report language until the bill is closer to floor consideration.
HASC is planning for its marathon full committee markup of June 22, and like past years, this meeting could be an all-nighter. While it is not due to be officially released until next week, a leaked copy of the HASC chairman’s mark surfaced on Wednesday. The draft is aligned with the president's topline spending request, although Rep. Smith has already indicated he expects the committee to adopt an increase during next week’s markup.
Since both the House and Senate bills will be through committees by the end of next week, we are already hearing rumblings about floor time in July. However, the conference process is likely to extend into the fall, with final passage of the FY23 NDAA likely in the lame duck.
Budget/Appropriations
Budget hearings continued this week in the Senate Appropriations Committee with Labor Secretary Marty Walsh, Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo, and intelligence community leadership. Meanwhile, the House began its FY23 appropriations markups, considering six bills in the past two days, including Defense, Legislative (Leg) Branch, Military Construction and Veterans Affairs (MilCon-VA), Agriculture, Homeland Security, and Financial Services and General Government (FSGG). The remaining subcommittee markups will conclude next week. As is tradition, this week’s subcommittee markups were relatively brief, but we expect to see a lot more action on amendments in full committee markups, which begin on Wednesday.
This week’s activity in the House Appropriations Committee comes in the absence of a bipartisan, bicameral agreement on topline spending for defense and non-defense programs. As a result, Democratic House Appropriations Committee leaders made clear that they will be marking up to the toplines envisioned by President Biden’s FY23 budget request. However, we anticipate a fight over defense spending levels, as Republicans have already signaled that progress on topline allocations hinges on a boost for defense.
By way of background, Department of Defense (DoD) funding would total roughly $777 billion under the FY23 Defense and MilCon-VA Appropriations bills released by the House Appropriations Committee this week. President Biden requested $773 billion, an increase over the $743 billion enacted in FY22, so the House bills represent a 4.6 percent increase over last year’s enacted defense spending levels. However, Republicans have called for a 3-5 percent increase over the level of inflation, which would translate to an overall 9-11 percent boost to the overall defense topline.
At this point, it is a foregone conclusion that there will be a continuing resolution (CR) to fund the government beyond the September 30 expiration of FY22 appropriations. While Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL) has publicly confirmed that a CR will be necessary, he has simultaneously expressed optimism about reaching a deal on an omnibus before the end of the year. We agree with Sen. Shelby that it might be in the interest of both Democrats and Republicans to wrap up the FY23 spending cycle during this Congress.
New analysis suggests that one issue Congress will not have to deal with this year is the debt limit. According to new Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC) estimates released this week, the government will likely hit the debt limit in Q1 2023. Assuming the Treasury Department invokes extraordinary measures, Congress may have until as late as Q3 2023 to increase or suspend the debt limit. This could potentially have the debt limit colliding with FY24 appropriations.
Healthcare Activity
Tuesday saw a marathon markup for the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP) Committee as they passed out several major pieces of legislation. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Safety and Landmark Advancements (FDASLA) Act is considered a "must pass" bill given the expiration of the FDA user fee authorization on September 30. The infant formula shortage issue found a ride on this legislation, as it was amended to require notification within five business days of a supply chain disruption. It passed by a vote of 13-9, mostly along party lines with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) voting against it and Sens. Collins, Cassidy, and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) joining the majority. The House passed its version of the reauthorization last week. The RISE & SHINE Act, a retirement security bill, was also favorably voted out of the HELP Committee.
Also on Tuesday, the Senate Finance Committee unveiled the latest effort from their mental health working group: a discussion draft on youth mental health. The proposal addresses several aspects of Medicaid coverage including improving access to coordinated care, updating guidance, and increasing oversight. As we have recently reported, the Finance Committee has seen a lot of bipartisan engagement on this matter, including from down-dais Republicans. The Committee released a telehealth draft just before Memorial Day.
On Wednesday, the Supreme Court issued its ruling on AHA v. Becerra, which questioned whether the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) could vary Medicare reimbursement for select 340B hospitals. The case was followed by many outside the health space because had the court ruled broadly, it could have put an end to Chevron deference, the doctrine federal courts follow deferring to bureaucracy's interpretation of ambiguous Congressional direction. However, Wednesday's unanimous decision led by Justice Brett Kavanaugh ruled narrowly on this matter.
COVID Aid
Late last week, Rep. DeLauro said that action has now stalled on the $10 billion COVID relief package that was negotiated between Leader Schumer and Sen. Romney before the Easter recess. We would have to agree with the assessment considering that we have heard very little about COVID funding in the past few weeks, despite rising caseloads in some parts of the country. The administration also appears somewhat resigned to the fact that pandemic assistance is slipping on the priority list, as evidenced by recent efforts to reprogram funding from other healthcare efforts to set aside resources for vaccines and therapeutics that will likely be needed this fall.
Political Tidbits
Retirements
Just when we thought we might hit the typical plateau of retirement announcements at the start of the summer, another Republican incumbent lost his primary on Tuesday night. Rep. Tom Rice (R-SC), one of the ten Republicans who voted in favor of President Donald Trump’s second impeachment, was defeated by his GOP challenger State Rep. Russell Fry. A member of the Ways and Means Committee, Rep. Rice had no committee or party leadership position. As of today, here is the breakdown of Members not returning in 2023:
1 Senate Democrat: 1 full committee chair (Appropriations)
5 Senate Republicans: 5 full committee ranking members (Appropriations; Armed Services; Banking; HELP; Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs (HSGAC); and Rules)
35 House Democrats: 4 full committee chairs (Budget; Ethics; Science, Space, and Technology; and Transportation and Infrastructure)
24 House Republicans: 2 full committee ranking members (Homeland Security and Ways and Means)
Elections
Four states – Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, and South Carolina – held primaries on Tuesday night. President Trump’s endorsement scheme was at play once again with 2020 election results-deniers coming out victorious in many races, potentially indicating that supporting the false election claims may be becoming the norm in Republican voters’ minds. A Trump-endorsed candidate emerged as the GOP Senate primary winner in Nevada, teeing up a fierce race for incumbent Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV), and in South Carolina, a House Republican incumbent lost his seat to a Trump-backed challenger. However, some Republicans were able to survive President Trump’s opposition by championing his platform despite his criticism. A House Republican incumbent in South Carolina defeated her Trump-backed opponent. We tracked the following races:
Maine
Maine has only two House seats, but primaries with only one candidate are not included on the ballot. Incumbent Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-ME), who represents the 1st District, ran unopposed in her primary and is not expected to have trouble winning an eighth term in the deep blue seat. Maine is also one of only two states in the country that uses ranked-choice voting for elections. The Pine Tree State’s new redistricted map was courtesy of a state advisory commission and was enacted with bipartisan support.
ME-2: Incumbent Rep. Jared Golden (D-ME) won the Democratic nomination unopposed. He is facing a rematch with former Republican Congressman Bruce Poliquin, who held the seat from 2015 to 2019. Poliquin narrowly lost to Rep. Golden in 2018 in the first Maine election to be decided by a ranked-choice vote. Rep. Golden is one of only five Democratic incumbents running for reelection in a district won by President Trump in 2020. Redistricting only modestly altered this seat, creating a slight benefit for Democrats. However, if the 2020 presidential election was held under new maps, President Biden still would have lost the district. This year, Republicans have made the seat a top target as they look to take back control of the House.
Gubernatorial: Neither candidate in the gubernatorial primaries faced opposition, but the general election will be fierce. Incumbent Democratic Gov. Janet Mills will face former Gov. Paul LePage. LePage served two terms as governor from 2011 to 2019, but many remember his time in office as one dominated by combative leadership. He announced his retirement from politics when he left office, but since returning to the campaign trail, he has shown a more relaxed leadership style. The two candidates have a long-standing rivalry, which goes back to when Mills was Maine’s Attorney General and LePage was governor. LePage sued Mills for refusing to defend his administration during several political disagreements that culminated with the Trump Administration’s travel ban that targeted several Muslim majority countries. Mills had refused to represent the state first when LePage tried to drop 19- and 20-year-olds from welfare rolls and again when he sued municipalities for helping undocumented immigrants. She also fined his administration for holding a closed-door meeting. When President Trump’s ban was announced, Mills signed on to a legal brief urging a federal appeals court to uphold a ruling that halted the action. This time around, LePage has received substantial backing from the Republican Party, but so far, Mills is outraising her challenger more than 2-to-1, $3.2 million raised by her compared to LePage’s nearly $1.5 million.
Nevada
Nevada hosted some of the most high-profile races for both Senate and governorship on Tuesday, as well as competitive races in the House. The results have made one thing clear in the Democratic-leaning state: President Biden is not the most popular figure amongst Silver State voters. Democratic incumbents are at risk in a state that has been hard hit by inflation, high gas prices, and the economic fallout from the pandemic. Democrats currently hold three of the state’s four House seats, and with history favoring the opposition party, Republicans have a chance to win all four districts in November.
Senate: Incumbent Sen. Cortez Masto won the Democratic nomination easily. As pre-Election Day polls indicated, Trump-backed Adam Laxalt won the Republican nomination with 55 percent of the vote as of Wednesday morning. Both candidates have name recognition that goes back generations. Sen. Cortez Masto’s father headed the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority, and Laxalt’s grandfather, Paul, served as Governor and Senator. In 2015, the younger Laxalt succeeded Sen. Cortez Masto as the state's Attorney General. Sen. Cortez Masto had already been leading in fundraising with nearly $20 million raised by the end of May and went into the primary with $9 million on hand. Meanwhile, Laxalt had pulled in only $1.5 million this year. However, that number is expected to climb as he has the endorsement of a number of high-profile Republicans, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), and Donald Trump Jr. The race will be pivotal in determining control of the Senate.
NV-1: Incumbent Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV) saw her Las-Vegas area district become redder in redistricting as the Democratic-controlled state legislature attempted to protect vulnerable Democratic incumbents in the neighboring 3rd and 4th Districts. While President Biden won the district by 25 points in 2020, the new lines would have given him a win by only nine points. Political pundits have rated the race a toss-up. Rep. Titus faced an intraparty challenge from progressive Amy Vilela, a former state co-chair for Sen. Sanders’ 2020 presidential campaign, but nonetheless Rep. Titus handily won the primary with over 82 percent. She will face Mark Robertson, who is a former Army Colonel and financial planner.
NV-3: Incumbent Rep. Susie Lee (D-NV) was one of the beneficiaries of redistricting after her suburban Las Vegas seat was made significantly bluer. While President Biden carried it by under half a point in 2020, he would have won the redrawn version by about seven points, but like other seats in the state, Republicans still have a chance at flipping the swing seat. The GOP front-runner, attorney April Becker, won the nomination to challenge Rep. Lee. Becker received the endorsement of the Nevada GOP, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik (R-NY), and other high-profile Republicans. She was also recently named to the National Republican Congressional Committee’s (NRCC) Young Guns program. The seat has been rated as toss-up.
NV-4: Incumbent Rep. Steven Horsford (D-NV) won the Democratic nomination unopposed. Rep. Horsford also benefited from redistricting, with President Biden’s margin doubling from four points to eight points under the new lines. However, Republicans are still targeting the district, and the race has been rated as a toss-up. Sam Peters, an Air Force veteran who came second in the GOP primary for the seat in 2020, won the GOP nomination.
Gubernatorial: Democratic incumbent Gov. Steve Sisolak won the primary easily against his intraparty challenger, former Clark County Commissioner Tom Collins. Sisolak will face Republican Joe Lombardo who won his party’s primary with 38.4 percent of the vote. Lombardo received President Trump’s endorsement and is one of many Republican challengers who has cast doubts on the 2020 presidential election results without explicitly calling them fraudulent. Lombardo has used his campaign to blame the incumbent Democrat for lost wages, a priority for voters in a state that receives so much of its GDP from the tourist industry. Sisolak is entering the general election with a 12-point lead over Lombardo, according to a poll done by University of Nevada. However, another survey from the conservative super PAC Club for Growth shows that the two candidates are essentially tied in polls. The state’s gubernatorial race is likely to be decided by a small margin.
North Dakota
Senate: Incumbent Sen. John Hoeven (R-ND) easily won the nomination in the GOP primary. He is set to face Democrat Katrina Christiansen, a University of Jamestown engineering professor. However, Sen. Hoeven has won his previous two Senate terms with more than 76 percent of the vote and is expected to win reelection in November.
South Carolina
Senate: Incumbent Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) did not face any serious competition on Tuesday night and is expected to easily win the deep-red state in November. He has raised nearly $40 million so far – more than any other Republican Senator up for reelection. As of Wednesday afternoon, neither of the top Democratic primary contenders had gotten a majority of the vote, meaning they will be headed for a runoff later this month. The runoff will be between activist Catherine Fleming Bruce and State Rep. Krystle Matthews.
SC-1: In 2020, freshman incumbent Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC) flipped the 1st District, defeating Democratic Rep. Joe Cunnningham. However, her prospects seemed to change this year after she failed to secure the former president’s support. President Trump chose to endorse challenger Katie Arrington, a state representative and former Defense Department employee under the Trump Administration. Still, Rep. Mace received GOP support, getting an endorsement from former South Carolina Gov. and Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley. Rep. Mace will face Democratic primary winner Annie Andrews, who is a pediatrician. The seat is already a Republican stronghold and became redder in redistricting. It is likely to remain that way in November.
SC-7: Five-term incumbent Rep. Rice lost his reelection bid on Tuesday night, becoming the 59th Member of the House who will not be returning in the 118th Congress. He faced a tough field of intraparty challengers, most notably Trump-endorsed State Rep. Russell Fry, who ended up securing the GOP nomination. Throughout the campaign, Fry criticized Rep. Rice for his impeachment vote, which is a message playing increasingly well with GOP voters. The seat is expected to stay red.
Gubernatorial: Former Rep. Cunningham won the Democratic nomination to face Republican incumbent Gov. Henry McMaster in the fall, setting up yet another high-profile competition. Back in 2016, Rep. Cunningham flipped the 1st District’s seat, earning him one term in the House. He also highlighted numerous times the 35-year age gap between him and the current governor, who is 75.
Texas
TX-34 Special Election: Thought to be at least Democratic-leaning, the 34th District flipped on Tuesday night in a special election. Democratic Rep. Filemon Vela (D-TX) announced his resignation from Congress in March. Republican Mayra Flores, who won the GOP nomination in March for the regular election in November, also won the special election and will serve out the remainder of the term until January. While the general election will be conducted under new district lines, the special election was held under previous boundaries, which were more favorable to Republicans. In 2020, President Biden carried the seat by only four points. However, he would have won the district under new lines by about 16 points. Incoming Rep. Flores will face Democratic incumbent Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-TX), who is opting to run in this district rather than for his current seat, in November.
The June primaries continue next Tuesday with voters headed to the polls in Virginia and DC. Alabama, Arkansas, and Georgia also have their primary run-offs.