Plurus Strategies Weekly Update: Gun Control, Ukraine, Reconciliation & More Primaries
Gun Control
Last weekend alone saw seven more mass shootings that killed 12 Americans and injured more than 50 others, maintaining pressure on Washington to act to address gun violence. Late last week, President Joe Biden made a rare prime time address to call for Congressional action on gun control as the nation reels from the back-to-back mass shootings in Uvalde and Buffalo. Multiple hearings have also kept the spotlight on gun violence. This week, the House Oversight and Reform Committee held a hearing featuring testimony from an Uvalde shooting survivor, family of the deceased, and a pediatrician who responded to the tragedy. Meanwhile, the Senate Judiciary Committee held a hearing on domestic terrorism in the U.S., with a focus on the recent shooting in New York, and has noticed another hearing for next week on protecting children from gun violence.
Last week, the House Judiciary Committee marked up of several gun control bills, including legislation to renew the assault weapons ban that expired in 2004. Eight bills were packaged into the Protect Our Kids Act, which builds on legislation the House passed last year to strengthen background checks. In its entirety, the House package would raise the lawful age for purchasing weapons, ban high-capacity magazines, increase penalties for gun trafficking and straw purchases, create criminal penalties for failure to store firearms safely at home, outlaw bump stocks, and prohibit ghost guns. On Wednesday, the House voted on individual titles of the bill to put Members on record and evidence which proposals have bipartisan support before ultimately passing the package by a 223-204 vote. Earlier today the House also passed legislation championed by Reps. Lucy McBath (D-GA) and Salud Carbajal (D-CA) that would establish a red flag procedure in federal courts and create a grant program to help state and local governments implement red flag laws.
Given the thin margins in the upper chamber, any gun control bill that reaches the president’s desk is more likely to be negotiated across the Capitol. Today, the CEOs of more than 220 U.S. companies wrote to Senate leadership calling for immediate action to address gun violence. Though a priority for Democrats, legislation banning the sale of assault rifles and high-capacity ammunition clips is likely dead-on-arrival in the Senate. Led by Sens. Chris Murphy (D-CT) and John Cornyn (R-TX), a bipartisan group of Senators worked over the recess to explore what reforms could muster 60 votes for passage. Among the ideas being discussed for a Senate package are stronger background checks (although a less robust proposal than the one put forward by Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Pat Toomey (R-PA) in 2013), incentives to promote red flag laws, beefed up school security, and more federal resources for mental health. Another idea floated in the wake of the mass shooting at Robb Elementary School in Uvalde, Texas, was raising the minimum age for purchasing semi-automatic weapons from 18-21, but this is reportedly off the table. Instead, the group may be considering an extended waiting period for individuals under the age of 21.
Senators had been working off a directive by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) to achieve a handshake agreement by the end of this week. Although talks continue, the timeline now seems to be slipping. There had been hope that a proposal would be ready for Sen. Murphy to present at the Democratic caucus lunch on Tuesday. While gun control was discussed, it is our understanding that the conversation was more conceptual and focused on the status of negotiations with Republicans. Also on Tuesday, Sen. Murphy briefed President Biden on the status of the talks, with President Biden indicating that he will allow the Senators space to continue negotiating and ultimately back any bipartisan agreement that is produced. At this point, it is clear more time is needed, but the group continues to project optimism that a deal could be within reach, perhaps as soon as next week. If an agreement is reached, there is likely to be only a small window for a very narrow compromise.
War in Ukraine
While the Pentagon has now started making use of the $40 billion aid package enacted in May, there is already chatter about another potential tranche of Ukraine funding. While it does not feel like there is any immediate urgency to cobble together more assistance, a third round of aid is likely to be a heavier lift, not only because of the pure size of the last package, but also considering increasing demands for oversight of Ukraine funding that has already been appropriated. Additional global support for Ukraine is likely to be a topic at next week’s meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, which Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will host at NATO headquarters in Brussels.
In the meantime, there is continued focus on leveraging sanctions and export controls to attempt to change Russian President Vladimir Putin’s calculus. Within the past week, U.S. and E.U. officials renewed their commitment to coordination on export controls, as the Commerce Department added 71 Russian and Belarusian entities to the list requiring U.S. companies to obtain a license for conducting business transactions. This brings the total number of entities added to the list since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to 322. Additionally, the Treasury Department recently announced a new round of sanctions targeting yachts linked to Putin and his allies. Sens. Mark Warner (D-VA), Marco Rubio (R-FL), Ron Wyden (D-OR), and Cornyn wrote to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen asking her to consider the list of 6,000 Russian officials and regime enablers identified by Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny for sanctions. We also continue to see Congressional visits to Ukraine, including a second visit by Ukrainian born Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-IN) during the recess last week.
Putin has become increasingly aggressive in his response to ongoing Western efforts in support of Ukraine. The U.S., the U.K., and Germany have recently decided to provide Ukraine with more sophisticated medium-range artillery systems and weapons. In response, Putin has threatened that Russia will strike new unspecified targets if these longer-range missiles are delivered to Ukraine, even though Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has committed these weapons will not be used to strike targets inside Russia. Similarly, in response to expanding sanctions, Putin has recently banned entry to Russia for 61 Americans, including Secretary Yellen, several State Department officials, and leaders of U.S. defense companies and media platforms.
The war in Ukraine has now surpassed 100 days with no end in sight. By some estimates, Russia now controls 20 percent of the country, even though the Ukrainians have put up a better fight than expected, ultimately pushing Russian forces out of Kyiv. Putin’s strategy now appears aimed at taking control of as much of the eastern Donbas region as possible, with fierce fighting reported from Kharkiv to Mykolaiv.
U.S. Innovation and Competition Act (USICA)/America COMPETES Act Conference
Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo continues to emphasize the need for Congress to pass compromise China competitiveness legislation as soon as possible. The good news is that senior Democratic Congressional staffers continue to tell us that USICA might be the issue where there is “the most optimism that something gets done before the midterm elections.” These staffers tell us this likely because Republicans do not view the China bill as “too big a win for Democrats.”
Congressional leadership continues to apply pressure on conference committee negotiators to finalize the bill before the July 4 recess, although privately Members and staffers believe passage just before the August recess is more likely. The conference committee missed the May 25 deadline to "close out" all legislative items. On Monday, National Economic Council (NEC) officials at the White House held a meeting with staff from key Congressional committees involved in the USICA/America COMPETES Act conference committee negotiations. Committee chairs and ranking members are set to review items this week, have meetings with conference chairs and ranking members next week, and are hoping to file the finished conference report by June 21. This timeline seems ambitious, especially as several points of contention remain.
Whether or not to airdrop tax provisions like the FABS Act into the conference report continues to be a sticking point. There are also concerns about the topline number. Additionally, progressives continue to push for guardrails on CHIPS Act subsidies. Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Rep. Sean Casten (D-IL) recently sent a letter to conferees arguing that the conference report should include language prohibiting companies that recent financial incentives from conducting stock buy backs, outsourcing jobs overseas, or repealing existing collective bargaining agreements. If there is no way around these issues, it remains possible that CHIPS Act funding falls out of the negotiations and moves on its own during the lame duck.
Speaking of semiconductors, earlier today Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA) convened a classified briefing featuring Commerce Secretary Raimondo, Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering David Honey, U.S. Air Force Chief Scientist Victoria Coleman, and Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger on the importance of chips to defense systems and critical infrastructure for conference committee members.
Healthcare Activity
One of the "must pass" bills of the year, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) user fee reauthorization, is one step closer to passing as the House favorably voted out their bill this week. The Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP) Committee was set to consider their version, which is largely the same but includes the creation of a 10-member Interagency Accelerated Approval Council, this week but postponed it to next week.
We have heard this bill could become a vehicle for other health efforts like mental health and pandemic preparedness. Both the HELP and Senate Finance Committees are working on mental health, with HELP reauthorizing programs and Finance doing more expansive work. We are hearing the Finance Committee concern is that attaching HELP's work to the user fee reauthorization could take the wind out of the sails for their own package. Finance has had a lot of bipartisan engagement on their effort including with down-dais Republicans, which is something that has not been seen before.
The 2022 annual Medicare Trustees Report was published last week, finding that the Hospital Medicare Insurance Trust Fund will be solvent until 2028. After the immediate reactions, we have heard that Capitol Hill is relatively quiet since the estimates came out, hinting there is a feeling that there is plenty of time to address it.
Build Back Better (BBB)/Reconciliation
The unwritten rule about negotiations in Washington is that the less we are hearing about a legislative effort, the more likely it might be that something gets done. This could be the case when it comes to reconciliation. In fact, one Democratic Senate staffer referred to BBB talks as “phantom reconciliation.” This may be the most apt description of current efforts to produce a narrow BBB-like framework, although the clock is ticking.
As the midterm elections get closer, some Republicans are beginning to suggest that Sen. Manchin could ultimately be persuaded to abandon bipartisan efforts aimed at producing energy legislation in favor of a partisan reconciliation bill. While this may be good news for Democrats, several hurdles remain, including Leader Schumer and Sen. Manchin clinching a deal, shoring up 50 Democratic votes in the Senate, completing Congressional Budget Office (CBO) scoring, and conducting a “Byrd bath," all before the reconciliation vehicle expires before September 30. One staffer we spoke to this week was of the mindset that this may not be as challenging as it sounds, especially because any reconciliation measure is likely to be a narrow package. Further, this staffer noted that prescription drug pricing reform will likely be included in any reconciliation bill and preliminary work with CBO and the parliamentary on this component has been underway for the past six months.
Most of Washington looks at September 30 as the hard deadline for a reconciliation bill to reach the president’s desk, although we were reminded this week that there could potentially be a slightly longer runway. Senate rules would require a reconciliation package to pass by September 30. However, the House may have longer to act. Because Democrats have a majority on the House Rules Committee, they could vote to take up the Senate-passed reconciliation bill, perhaps in October or November. However, if the House votes after September 30, they would be unable to modify the Senate-passed bill because the legislation would no longer be privileged in the Senate. Of course, the value of reconciliation to Democrats in cycle will diminish the longer reconciliation drags out.
Fiscal Year 2023 (FY23) National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA)
House Armed Services Committee (HASC) Chairman Adam Smith officially kicked off the FY23 NDAA cycle by introducing the “by request” version of the NDAA just before the Memorial Day recess. This tradition marks the filing of legislation that reflects the president's FY23 budget request to be amended by the subcommittee and full committee marks. HASC subcommittees met on Wednesday and Thursday this week to approve legislative and report language under each subcommittee’s jurisdiction. These markups were quick, with most of the action reserved for the full committee markup, which is scheduled for June 22.
The Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC) is scheduled to begin marking up its NDAA at the subcommittee level on June 13 with a full committee markup planned for June 15. These sessions will be closed, and it is unlikely that Senate bill text and report language will be available until the bill is closer to floor consideration. While it is possible both chambers will pass their respective NDAAs before the August recess, it could be the lame duck before a final conference bill reaches President Biden’s desk. As the NDAA has been signed into law for the past 61 consecutive bills, this is one priority that is nearly guaranteed passage.
Budget/Appropriations
Budget hearings continued this week. Treasury Secretary Yellen testified in the Senate Finance Committee, while Education Secretary Miguel Cardona appeared before the Senate Appropriations and HELP Committees. The Senate Appropriations Committee also held a hearing on the National Guard and Reserve budget. The House Appropriations Committee received testimony from U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Linda Thomas-Greenfield, as well as leadership of the Smithsonian, National Gallery of Art, National Endowment for the Arts, and National Endowment for the Humanities.
Like its appropriations process last year, on Wednesday, the House adopted a deeming resolution allowing it to begin marking up FY23 appropriations bills to a $1.6 trillion discretionary topline, consistent with the president’s budget request. The House Appropriations Committee will hold subcommittee markups of its FY23 spending bills beginning June 15 and concluding June 22, with full committee markups planned to start June 22 and conclude June 30. The schedule will be as follows:
Wednesday, June 15: Defense, Legislative (Leg) Branch, Military Construction and Veterans Affairs (MilCon-VA), and Agriculture Subcommittee Markups
Thursday, June 16: Homeland Security and Financial Services and General Government (FSGG) Subcommittee Markups
Tuesday, June 21: Interior and Energy and Water Subcommittee Markups
Wednesday, June 22: Defense and Leg Branch Full Committee Markups and State-Foreign Operations (SFOPs) and Commerce-Justice-Science (CJS) Subcommittee Markups
Thursday, June 23: Agriculture and MilCon-VA Full Committee Markups and Transportation, Housing, and Urban Development (THUD) and Labor-Health and Human Services (HHS) Subcommittee Markups
Friday, June 24: Homeland Security and FSGG Full Committee Markups
Tuesday, June 28: Energy and Water and Interior Full Committee Markups
Wednesday, June 29: SFOPs and CJS Full Committee Markups
Thursday, June 30: THUD and Labor-HHS Full Committee Markups
The idea is that the full House will then move as many of the FY23 bills as possible on the floor in July. The Senate Appropriations Committee could begin revealing its bills next month. Despite any progress made in moving bills through committee and on the floor, efforts to eventually reconcile differences between the House and Senate bills could be delayed given the absence of an agreement among the big four on topline defense and non-defense spending. While Sens. Patrick Leahy (D-VT) and Richard Shelby (R-AL) and Reps. Rosa DeLauro (D-CT) and Kay Granger (R-TX) had positive discussions last month aimed at striking a deal, so far, no further talks have been scheduled. Republican demands for a boost in defense spending beyond accounting for inflation remain a critical piece of discussions.
By choosing to move forward with marking up their bills at their own toplines, House leadership is potentially giving Democrats something to campaign on, but it will almost certainly make the process of assembling an omnibus that can pass both the House and Senate more difficult once there is consensus on 302(a) numbers. Another factor that that could ultimately lead to changes in the bills is a series of budget amendments recently submitted by the Biden Administration seeking to reflect the Violence Against Women Act (VAWA) reauthorization, increase funding for cleanup at the decommissioned Hanford nuclear production site, and shift money between defense accounts. Despite snags in the process, we continue to believe there is a scenario where the FY23 appropriations cycle is wrapped up by the end of this Congress, allowing Republicans to advance government spending on Democrats’ watch and clear the decks for next year.
COVID Aid
A few weeks ago, it seemed plausible that Congress might find a way around disagreements over the Biden Administration’s plans to lift Trump-era Title 42 immigration restrictions to pass the $10 billion COVID package negotiations by Leader Schumer and Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT). However, as the country tries to put the pandemic in the past, despite rising caseloads, COVID relief seems to be slipping further down on the priority list.
A major obstacle to the COVID proposal moving forward is the fact that rescissions of previously appropriated stimulus funds that had been agreed to as offsets have now been spent. With pay-fors an essential component of the package, it now seems that a COVID proposal would have to be renegotiated. However, the White House and senior Congressional leadership are now juggling other pressing priorities within a narrow legislative window, leading us to question if COVID relief gets done this year. In fact, this week the Biden Administration began scaling back several health programs to set aside $5 billion for a fall vaccination campaign and another $5 billion to procure 10 million remaining courses of Pfizer’s therapeutic pill.
Even if there was consensus on a new COVID package, moving it could be procedurally difficult. Despite a court decision delaying administrative action and a pending appeal of the decision, Republicans continue to demand a vote on this package on the Biden Administration’s decision to lift Trump-era Title 42 immigration restrictions.
Political Tidbits
Retirements
Amidst negotiations throughout the recess of possible gun reform, Rep. Chris Jacobs (R-NY) announced he would not be seeking reelection. Rep. Jacobs had responded to questions about his support for gun control, stating that he would vote for a ban on assault rifles. His retirement has left a seat open in New York’s 23rd District, one of the reddest parts of the state. Here is the breakdown of Members not returning in 2023:
1 Senate Democrat: 1 full committee chair (Appropriations)
5 Senate Republicans: 5 full committee ranking members (Appropriations; Armed Services; Banking; HELP; Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs (HSGAC); and Rules)
35 House Democrats: 4 full committee chairs (Budget; Ethics; Science, Space, and Technology; and Transportation and Infrastructure)
23 House Republicans: 2 full committee ranking members (Homeland Security and Ways and Means)
Elections
Just under three weeks after the primary, Dave McCormick conceded to Dr. Mehmet Oz in the Pennsylvania Senate Republican primary. Oz will now face Democrat Lt. Gov. John Fetterman. In Texas, progressive Democrat Jessica Cisneros requested a recount in the runoff with incumbent Democrat Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-TX). Although polls closed nearly two weeks ago, the race has not been called and remains separated by less than half a percentage point.
Meanwhile, seven states held primaries on Tuesday: California, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota. Much of the focus remained on House races and several more local races, as no incumbent Governors or Senators faced serious primary challenges. One of the significant takeaways from this round is the growing threat to House Republican incumbents. Several Members were in danger of losing the nomination, and others are headed for intraparty runoffs. These primaries also brought the battleground seats into clearer view, with more than a dozen competitive seats across the seven states.
California Primaries & Special Election
Democrats may outnumber Republicans 2 to 1 in the Golden State, but the GOP retains strongholds in a few House seats that appear to be some of the most competitive in the country. The outcome of these races could decide Republicans’ margin in the House and who wields the Speaker’s gavel, potentially California’s own Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA). Under the state’s primary rules, the two candidates who receive the most votes advance to the fall election, regardless of party affiliation. However, because of the divisions in most districts, most races will see a Democrat vs. Republican in November.
Senate: The position for the Senate appeared twice on the primary election ballot because voters were selecting a candidate for the period between Election Day in November and January 3, 2023, as well as a candidate for a full six-year Senate term that will begin on January 3, 2023. Incumbent Democrat Alex Padilla, who has served since being appointed to fill the remainder of Vice President Kamala Harris’ term, squared off against little-known Democratic competitors and won in a landslide. In both the November general and special elections, he will face Republican Mark Meuser, a constitutional attorney who criticized California’s response to the pandemic and filed more than 20 lawsuits against Gov. Gavin Newsom for his emergency restrictions.
Gubernatorial: Incumbent Democratic Gov. Newsom made it through the primary, earning more votes than any of the other 24 candidates. He will face Republican State Sen. Brian Dahle. 2022 could be a watershed year for Republicans, but California Democrats often prevail in statewide races even while the broader environment favors the GOP.
CA-3: The 3rd District became an open seat when GOP incumbent Rep. Tom McClintock (R-CA) opted to run in a nearby district with more registered Republicans since the 3rd gave Republicans only a five-point voter margin. Assemblyman Kevin Kiley, who unsuccessfully ran in last year’s gubernatorial recall and has been endorsed by President Donald Trump and the state GOP, and Sacramento County Sheriff Scott Jones were neck-and-neck as the Republicans in the race. However, Kiley eventually won out. He will face Kermit Jones, a physician and attorney, who has been endorsed by the state’s Democratic Party. The district is being rated as red and will likely stay that way.
CA-13: The 13th District also became an open seat after incumbent Democrat Rep. Josh Harder (D-CA) opted to run in retiring Democratic Rep. Jerry McNerney’s (D-CA) 9th District. Assemblyman Adam Gray, who won the state Democratic Party endorsement, and Republican businessmen John Duarte lead in the race as the two winners. The district is being seen by Republicans as a top pickup opportunity, and the seat is rated as competitive with a Democratic lean.
CA-15: After Democratic Rep. Jackie Speier (D-CA) joined the retirement wave earlier this year, Democrats immediately lined up to compete for the safely blue 15th District. Assemblymember Kevin Mullin, who won Rep. Speier’s endorsement and is one of her former staffers, won the Democratic nomination and will likely face fellow Democrat David Canepa, the San Mateo County Supervisor.
Special Election CA-22: Republican Rep. Devin Nunes (R-CA) left Congress at the beginning of 2022 to take a role at President Trump's social media company. Republican Connie Conway won the special election to fill the remainder of his term, beating out Democrat Lourin Hubbard for the position. Although Conway has won the special election, she will not hold the seat, based on the 2010 map, for long. Redistricting saw the seat divided up amongst its neighbors, and Conway entered the election knowing she would only serve a few months.
Primary Election CA-22: Democratic Assemblyman Rudy Salas will advance to November. Following redistricting, incumbent Republican Rep. David Valadao (R-CA) launched his reelection bid in the district neighboring his own as the newly drawn 22nd District incorporated most of the territory previously in the 21st. Since he first won the seat in 2012, Rep. Valadao’s district has grown increasingly competitive, and Tuesday night saw those dynamics play out. As of Thursday morning, Salas’ challenger had yet to be announced. Rep. Valadao was defeated back in 2018 by a Democrat but won the 21st District in 2020. In 2021, he was one of 10 Republicans to vote for President Trump’s impeachment, which prompted two GOP candidates, former Fresno City Councilman Chris Mathys and Kings County Board of Education Trustee Adam Medeiros, to challenge Rep. Valadao. Neither was able to secure President Trump’s endorsement. Republicans poured huge sums of money into keeping Rep. Valadao in his spot, but voter discontent with the incumbent is clear. The most recent polls report the seat as leaning Democratic by six points.
CA-27: Incumbent Republican Rep. Mike Garcia (R-GA) will face Democratic challenger Christy Smith, a former assemblywoman, in November. This seat is viewed as one of Democrats’ best shots to flip a seat as it became even more left leaning with redistricting. Although Rep. Garcia has defeated Smith twice, last time by 333 votes, the district is more liberal, and Democrats are likely to argue that Rep. Garcia is out of touch with the increasingly diverse district.
CA-37: Like several of her fellow Californian Democrats, Rep. Karen Bass (D-CA) also vacated her safely blue seat, which lined up another competitive intraparty race. State Sen. Sydney Kamlager, who received Rep. Bass’ backing, is the frontrunner with Democratic Councilwoman Jan Perry, who received the backing of Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA), coming in second. As of Thursday, the race had yet to be called, but it will likely be an intraparty election.
CA-40: Democratic incumbent Rep. Lucille Roybal-Allard (D-CA) is retiring, and her district has become much more favorable to Republicans. Republican Rep. Young Kim (R-CA) opted to run here rather than her current 39th District. However, the 40th District includes only 21 percent of Rep. Kim’s prior constituents, and the seat is being rated as competitive with a Republican-lean. Her intraparty challenger is Mission Viejo City Councilman Greg Raths, a Trump devotee. Democrat Asif Mahmood, a physician who unsuccessfully ran for state insurance commissioner in 2018, continued to lead the Democrats by Thursday and will likely face Rep. Kim, who is leading the Republican candidates.
CA-45: The 45th District is another where redistricting imperiled an incumbent. Republican Rep. Michelle Steel (R-CA) made history as one of the first Korean American women in Congress when she won her seat in 2020 and has once again secured a spot on the general election ballot. However, ratings have given Democrats a three-point advantage in the district. In recent weeks, the race had grown increasingly aggressive, with candidates accusing one another of racism and misogyny. Democrat Jay Chen, a Navy reserve intelligence officer, will be her challenger this November.
CA-47: Incumbent Democrat Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA) is a rising star of the Democratic party and is widely expected to run for U.S. Senate when a vacancy arises, but first she must get through reelection. She chose to run in the 47th District as incumbent Rep. Alan Lowenthal (D-CA) is retiring, and the seat has a narrow three-point lean for Democrats. Republican attorney Scott Baugh, a former state assemblyman and chair of the Orange County GOP, secured the other spot for the general election. While he has raised a fraction of the money Rep. Porter has, his extensive ties to the country’s wealthy donor community have allowed him to bank seven figures.
CA-49: Incumbent Democrat Rep. Mike Levin (D-CA) secured his spot on the general election ballot easily. Several Republicans were vying for his seat, as the district retains a little more than a three-point voter edge with newly drawn lines. As of Thursday morning, Rep. Levin’s challenger had yet to be announced, but the top contenders are Orange County Supervisor Lisa Bartlett; Brian Maryott, the former mayor of San Juan Capistrano who is partly funding his own campaign and has been endorsed by the state GOP; and Oceanside City Councilman Christopher Rodriguez. The race has been rated as competitive with a Democratic-lean.
Los Angeles Mayoral: Unlike statewide races in which top-two candidates advance to the general election, the race to be Los Angeles’ next mayor could have been decided Tuesday night with a simple majority. However, without either of the top two candidates breaking that threshold, Rick Caruso, a Republican-turned-Democrat who sits on the board of the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation, and Democratic Rep. Bass, who was widely considered the frontrunner up until a few weeks ago, will be headed for a runoff. They are competing to take over from Mayor Eric Garcetti, who was tapped to serve as President Biden's Ambassador to India. While Caruso finished with 41 percent and Bass with 38 percent, the general election could prove much tougher as polls show Bass with the support of 38 percent of likely voters, and Caruso at 32 percent.
San Francisco District Attorney Recall: Local elections typically stay within the state, but the heated recall of the Bay Area’s district attorney garnered national attention as public safety and homelessness move to the top of voter priorities. Despite endorsements from Democratic titans like Sen. Sanders, incumbent Chesa Boudin was defeated. His critics, who received financing from wealthy Republicans donors in the area, argued that Boudin’s policies made the city less safe, which seems to have swayed many in San Francisco’s Democratic base. Mayor London Breed is now tasked with naming a temporary replacement. Possible candidates include Catherine Stefani, a moderate Democrat on San Francisco’s Board of Supervisors and the first elected official to publicly support the recall. Whoever replaces Boudin will serve until an election in November.
Iowa Primary
Following the January 6th insurrection, the Iowa Democratic Party temporarily closed its headquarters due to a death threat, underlining the extremism seen in the Hawkeye State. Three of the four House seats are strong Republican holds, while the Democrats’ only seat is set to be one of the more competitive races this cycle.
Senate: Former Democratic Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D-IA) had been the frontrunner since she first announced last summer that she would run to challenge incumbent Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA). However, her campaign experienced several stumbles, the most noteworthy being a challenge to her nominating petitions’ signatures. On Tuesday, retired U.S. Navy Admiral Michael Franken won the Democratic nomination. Democrats are unlikely to unseat Sen. Grassley, who has been in Congress since 1975, in November.
IA-3: Incumbent Democrat Rep. Cindy Axne (D-IA) easily won her renomination as she was unopposed. However, the general election will be much more challenging. She won her seat by less than two percentage points in 2020, but the newly approved district has added several Republican counties to the 3rd District. Zach Nunn, a U.S. Air Force veteran who has served in the state legislature since 2015, won the GOP nomination by a significant margin. The seat is seen by Republicans as one of their most important pickup opportunities this cycle.
Mississippi Primary
Mississippi has long been a deep-red state, and Tuesday’s primary saw incumbent Republicans facing competition from within their own party.
MS-3: Incumbent Republican Rep. Michael Guest (R-MS), who was one of the Republicans to vote in favor last year to form a bipartisan commission to investigate January 6th, faced challengers who support claims about the 2020 presidential election being stolen. Rep. Guest was in a narrow race against Michael Cassidy, a former U.S. Navy pilot, and now faces a surprise runoff on June 28. The winner of the primary will face Shuwaski Young, who won the Democratic nomination uncontested. However, the seat is rated safe Republican and is expected to remain that way.
MS-4: Johnny Dupree, a former mayor of Hattiesburg, won the Democratic nomination by a landslide. His general election opponent, who will likely be the winner in November given that the district is safely red, remains unclear for the time being. Congressional ethics watchdogs found reason to believe incumbent Republican Rep. Steven Palazzo (R-CA) abused his office and misspent campaign funds, which negatively impacted his campaign. After failing to obtain a majority, Rep. Palazzo is headed for a runoff later this month for the first time in his six-term tenure. He will likely face off against Mike Ezell, a retired police officer, pending Tuesday’s final results.
Montana Primary
For the first time since 1993, Montana had two House seats to vote for. While both have been rated as safe Republican, this 1stDistrict saw an interesting intraparty race.
MT-1: The 1st District saw an incredibly close race for the GOP nomination, as former Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke was neck and neck with former state legislator Al Doc Olszewski. As of Thursday morning, the GOP nominee had not been announced. Zinke was leading Olszewski by 1,180 votes. Monica Tranel won the Democratic nomination with 65 percent of the vote. While the seat is open, it has been rated as likely red.
New Jersey Primary
The Garden State marches to its own drum. Most states organize their primary ballots by position. In New Jersey, primary ballots are organized by slates. Before ballots are printed, candidates for office seek “the line,” appearing under either party’s name. This is often secured through contentious conventions or through lobbying a county’s party leadership. While not guaranteed, securing the line almost always means a candidate wins the primary. There were several down ballot upsets to the line, but at the federal level, the 12 House primaries ended up mostly as expected. The three races we tracked had a unique commonality: each featured a junior (sons of New Jersey politicians).
NJ-7: New Jersey’s redistricting shored up one party’s control in almost every district except one. The 7th District is rated a tossup and is arguably the state’s most-watched race. This midterm election sets up a rematch from two years ago when Democrat Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-NJ) beat former State Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr. by one point. Rep. Malinowski swept his primary, but with new district lines making the seat Republican-leaning, he could be in trouble in the general. Kean Jr., who faced six challengers in his primary including state Assemblyman Erik Peterson, has strong name recognition, not only for his 20 years in the state legislature but also as the son of former New Jersey Gov. Tom Kean. Rep. Malinowski, it should be noted, is the stepson of Blair Clark, campaign manager of Sen. Eugene McCarthy’s 1968 presidential campaign.
NJ-8: Incumbent Democratic Rep. Albio Sires (D-NJ) is retiring after more than 15 years in office. He succeeded now-Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) in this North Jersey seat. On Tuesday, Sen. Menendez’s son, Rob Menendez Jr., secured the Democratic nomination in a landslide. Menendez Jr., a Port of New York and New Jersey Commissioner, will face Republican Marcos Arroyo, a housing inspector, in the general election. However, the seat is rated as safe Democratic and is expected to remain that way.
NJ-10: Incumbent Democratic Rep. Donald Payne Jr. (D-NJ) joined Congress in 2012, taking over the seat of his late father, and has had relatively few primary challenges over the years. In the leadup to Tuesday’s primary, many expected this to be the most contested primary with an incumbent since progressive challenger Imani Oakley raised a significant amount of money. However, Rep. Payne Jr. won in a landslide. His Republican opponent in the fall is David Pinckney, who only won 12 percent of the vote in the 2016 general election. The seat is expected to remain Democratic.
New Mexico Primary
New Mexico was solidly blue in 2020, but Republicans see an opportunity to challenge Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grishman and bring New Mexico back to the swing state it used to be. Still, voter turnout was dismal. As of Wednesday morning, turnout numbers stood at 22 percent in comparison to an average of 35 percent.
Gubernatorial: Democratic incumbent Gov. Grishman won her renomination unopposed and will face Republican Mark Ronchetti, a former television meteorologist. New Mexico governors have alternated between Democratic and Republican since the early 1980s. The last incumbent governor to lose re-election lost in 1994. The November election will be a test for the Democratic party in the most Hispanic state in the nation.
NM-2: Although the GOP flipped the district in 2020, redistricting made the seat that sits along the U.S. border with Mexico bluer. Former Las Cruces City Councilor Gabe Vasquez will be the Democrat taking on incumbent Republican Rep. Yvette Herrell (R-NM), a former defender of President Trump.
South Dakota Primary
Gubernatorial: Incumbent Gov. Kristi Noem faced an intraparty challenge from State Rep. Steven Haugaard, but she sailed to victory in the primary. Gov. Noem also received President Trump’s endorsement. State Rep. Jamie Smith won the Democratic nomination unopposed, but the governorship is expected to remain with the incumbent.
Senate: Incumbent Republican Sen. John Thune (R-SD), a top member of Republican leadership, won his primary in a landslide victory. President Trump had called on his ally Gov. Noem to challenge him, since Sen. Thune was one of several Republicans who criticized efforts to contest the 2020 election results. Gov. Noem declined to pursue the primary and instead is running for another term as Governor. Brain Bengs, an Air Force veteran and college professor, will face Sen. Thune this November, but the three-term incumbent is expected to remain as the seat is safely red.
SD-AL: Incumbent Republican Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-SD) defeated his challenger state Rep. Taffy Howard, who had attacked Rep. Johnson for voting in favor of creating the January 6th investigative committee and for supporting Rep. Liz Cheney’s (R-WY) effort to remain in her leadership position. Reps. Johnson, Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA), and Rep. Chris Smith (R-NJ) are three Republicans who backed the commission and won their primaries on Tuesday, indicating that support for the panel was not enough to end their candidacies.
Looking ahead to next week, the special top-four primary will be held on Saturday to replace the late Republican Rep. Don Young (R-AK) in Alaska. Next Tuesday has primaries in Maine, North Dakota, Nevada, and South Carolina, as well as the special general election in Texas to fill the rest of retired Democratic Rep. Filemon Vela’s (D-TX) term.
Redistricting
After months-long stalemate between the Republican-controlled state legislature and Gov. Chris Sununu, New Hampshire’s Supreme Court adopted a new Congressional map on May 31. The first version had removed several Democratic leaning areas while the second version would have set up an incumbent vs. incumbent battle. The governor also released his own version of the map. Following a lawsuit by state voters, the state’s Supreme Court has appointed a special master to draw a new map using the least change approach. Both seats, currently held by two-term Democrat Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH) and five-term Democrat Rep. Ann Kuster (D-NH), are rated as highly competitive. New Hampshire primaries are scheduled for September 13, making them one of the latest in the country.