‘Three As’ of Democratic Victories in the 2025 Off-Year Elections: Affordability, Accessibility, and Authenticity

The Off-Year Election Results

As election results poured in on November 4, 2025, two things quickly became clear. First, despite being a series of scattered, typically uneventful races for state and local positions in an off-cycle year, these elections drew attention unlike any others in recent memory. Voter turnout in New York and New Jersey reached heights not seen in decades, reflective of a political momentum that had been building for months, and which had drawn nationwide interest to races that most Americans could not even vote in. Second, Democrats won, big.

From Abigail Spanberger’s triumph in Virginia flipping the state’s governorship blue once again, to Mikie Sherrill’s apparent reversal of Democratic losses in New Jersey, and assemblyman Zohran Mamdani’s impressive rise to mayor in the span of just one year, Democrats have been taking a much-needed victory lap this month. Besides these big races, Democrats also won their first state-level position in Georgia since 2006 and successfully broke the Republican supermajority in Mississippi's Senate — overperforming expectations nearly everywhere. As such, many are now clamoring to find out what drove these victories, and what they mean for the Democrats’ future — although doing so may prove easier said than done.

The ‘Three As’: Affordability, Accessibility, and Authenticity 

Spanberger, a former intelligence officer who boasts her bipartisan appeal, offers a vastly different vision for the party than Mamdani, an immigrant and self-described democratic socialist. But while many have gotten caught up in trying to reconcile these seemingly conflicting results, this month’s candidates do share some key similarities. First, Spanberger, Sherrill, and Mamdani all ran for office ten months into the second Trump Administration. After nearly a year in office, the president’s failure to deliver on his campaign promises and the increasingly volatile state of the U.S. economy have driven many — especially moderates and independents — away from the Republican agenda. While President Donald Trump himself maintains a base of fervently loyal supporters, Democrats’ overperformance in 2018, 2022, and 2025 indicate that this support has not translated down-ballot very well.

More importantly, however, Democrats have spent this year campaigning on one key issue: affordability. Mamdani, mayor-elect of America’s most expensive city, ran on a campaign of bringing down the prices of housing, groceries, and childcare for New Yorkers. While these promises are far from unprecedented in a political campaign, Mamdani has backed them up with concrete policy proposals such as freezing rent for rent-stabilized homes, introducing city-operated grocery stores, and streamlining permitting processes for small businesses. Similarly, Sherill vowed to freeze New Jerseyans’ utility prices, and Spanberger touted proposals aiming to accelerate housing construction in Virginia and crack down on pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs) for inflating prescription drug prices. 

  But beyond promises of affordability, what Democratic candidates got right was their accessibility to voters. Zohran Mamdani, for instance, began his rise to stardom in late 2024 as a ‘man on the street’ style interviewer, asking New York pedestrians one-on-one about their thoughts on the city’s political shortcomings. The assemblyman carried forth this ethos throughout his mayoral campaign, engaging with New Yorkers in public seemingly every day, explaining his policy proposals in straightforward, easily understandable speeches. Likewise, Sherill’s campaign has been characterized by a series of blunt, easily understandable policy promises such as “I’m not doing a ten-year study, I’m not writing a strongly worded letter… I’m declaring a state of emergency to drive your costs down.”

Whether moderate or progressive, these central promises of affordability combined with easily accessible and authentic candidates are what have delivered the Democrats their latest victories, and what they need to maintain going forward.

Looking Ahead to 2026 for Democrats

While this November’s elections may not have laid out a clear vision for the ideological future of the party, Democrats will not have to wait long for an opportunity to apply lessons learned — the ‘three As’ —to the 2026 midterm elections. Some key Democratic primaries for 2026 are already in full swing, with several lesser-known progressives taking on more established moderates, vying for crucial seats in Congress. 

While the Senate map favors Republicans maintaining control of the chamber — following the off-year elections — political pundits nearly universally place 2026 races in Georgia, Maine, Michigan, and North Carolina in the tossup column. Democrats are looking to defend seats in Georgia and Michigan and flip seats in Maine and North Carolina. While moderate Democratic candidates have emerged in all these races, we have already started to see progressive challengers leaning in on affordability and pursuing voters where they are. 

In the hours after the polls closed, we saw many 2026 House race rating maps updated to reflect the possibility the Speaker’s gavel may now be in play. The number of seats likely to be held by Democrats in the 120th Congress is now nearly equal to the number projected to be retained by Republicans, with outcomes in just 16 or so key races to determine which party will be in the majority come January 2027. Already, Democratic candidates are tweaking their campaign strategies hoping to replicate the blue wave in the off-year elections. The outcomes of these primaries and the nominees’ performance in their respective general elections will no doubt set the tone for Democrats’ Congressional agenda through 2028.

Despite electoral momentum — which admittedly may have dampened a bit since Election Night due to discontent in parts of the Democratic base over some Democratic Senators voting with Republicans to end the recent government shutdown — Democratic aspirations may also be tempered by the nationwide, politically motivated gerrymandering spree.

  Kicked off this summer by Texas’ redistricting push — a move to flip five currently blue House seats that was blocked in federal court today — Republicans in states like Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, and Missouri are all considering similar initiatives to further tip the midterms in their favor. While trying to prevent red states from drawing unfair maps is likely to prove futile as demonstrated in Texas, Democrats now appear eager to fight fire with fire. This month, Californians voted nearly two-to-one in favor of Proposition 50, an explicitly partisan gerrymandering initiative that would likely net Democrats five more House seats of their own. Meanwhile, Virginia, Illinois, New York and Maryland all have acted or at least considered the possibility of drawing new maps that favor Democrats. The winners of this national redistricting race may very well determine the margins in the House in the next Congress. 

Make no mistake, November’s elections were great news for Democrats but carrying these successes into 2026 will not be easy. While maintaining disciplined messaging campaigns centered on voters’ top priority of affordability and running accessible, authentic candidates could be part of a winning strategy, Democrats will still need to contend with factions within their own party and lay out a vision for the future that motivates voters to get out to the polls, even when there is no presidential contest. Election Day 2026 is a whopping 349 days away, so anything is possible, but if Democrats continue to focus on the “three As,” there may be hope for more strong performances by Democratic candidates.