Outlook on the 2026 Senate Elections
The Senate Map and the Electoral State of Play
Next year, 35 Senate seats, including 13 held by Democrats and 22 held by Republicans, will be up for reelection. Republicans, with their current 53-47 Senate majority, are primed to maintain control of the chamber, but Democrats are starting to see glimmers of hope that they could flip seats in some key states.
So far, three Republican and four Democratic incumbents have announced retirements. Retiring Members include former Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and Sens. Thom Tillis (R-NC) and Tommy Tuberville (R-AL). Also not returning in the 120th Congress are Senate Democratic Whip and Senate Judiciary Committee Ranking Member Dick Durbin (D-IL), Senate Foreign Relations Committee (SFRC) Ranking Member Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee (HSGAC) Ranking Member Gary Peters (D-MI), and Sen. Tina Smith (D-MN). Only Sen. Tuberville, who has announced his intention to run for governor, is running for another office.
While the races for these open seats will be ones to watch, the contests in cross-party states where the Senate seat in play is held by a Senator whose party did not win the state in the 2024 presidential election, could also be nailbiters. For example, President Donald Trump won last year in Georgia, where Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) is now running for reelection. Similarly, former Vice President and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris won Maine, where Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) is in cycle and running to hold her seat.
Current Ratings for Races to Watch
Georgia: Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) won an unexpected runoff by just over one percent in 2021. This narrow margin, President Trump’s victory in Georgia in 2024, and Republicans’ stronghold on statewide offices, has set expectations for this race to be competitive. So far, Reps. Buddy Carter (R-GA) and Mike Collins (R-GA), as well as former college football coach Derek Dooley, have announced their candidacies in the GOP primary. Others may still join the race. Gov. Brian Kemp’s (R-GA) and President Trump’s endorsements will be very influential in this extremely competitive GOP primary. Regardless of who ultimately becomes the Republican nominee, the general election is shaping up to be a competitive race between Sen. Ossoff, who enjoys popularity across party lines, and a strong Republican challenger. Not unlike Sen. Ossoff’s 2021 race, this contest could ultimately be decided in a runoff.
Election Forecasts:
Inside Elections: Tossup | Cook Political Report: Tossup | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Tossup
Iowa: After winning by just under seven percent in 2020, Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) has yet to formally announce that she will seek a third term. She is seen as vulnerable due to comments she made in a May 2025 town hall defending Medicaid cuts in the One Big Beautiful Bill that drew significant backlash. In the Republican primary, Sen. Ernst is so far confronting challenges from former state Sen. Jim Carlin and former vice chair of the Libertarian Party Joshua Smith, with talk show host Steve Deace also considering a run. On the Democratic side, candidates include KNIA market director Nathan Sage, state Sen. Zach Wahls, and state Rep. Josh Turek. Previously a candidate, state Rep. J.D. Scholten recently suspended his campaign and threw his support behind Turek. Both state representatives currently hold seats in districts in counties that overwhelmingly voted for President Trump in 2024. While Iowa has been trending Republican, Sen. Ernst’ unfavorability and a field of strong Democratic candidates could make this race competitive, even as most pundits still believe Sen. Ernst is likely to win.
Election Forecasts:
Inside Elections: Likely R | Cook Political Report: Likely R | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Likely R
Maine: Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) plans to seek a sixth term. She won by eight percent in 2020. In the Republican primary, Sen. Collins is seeing a challenge from the right by Dan Smerglio, an Army veteran, former policy officer, and Republican activist. On the Democratic side, chief of staff to former Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA) Jordan Wood, former deputy secretary of the Maryland Environment Department David Costello, and oyster farmer Graham Platner have announced. State Sen. Cathy Breen and Speaker of the Maine House Ryan Fecteau have both expressed interest, and there is a push to entice term-limited Gov. Janet Mills (D-ME) into running. While Maine is a traditionally blue state, and Sen. Collins has lost some of her moderate brand by supporting many of President Trump’s nominees and bills, this race still seems to favor the incumbent, even if it shifts towards tossup territory. Maine uses ranked choice voting, so if the vote totals dip below 50 percent, ranked choice voting will be used, and this could make the Maine Senate race even more interesting.
Election Forecasts:
Inside Elections: Tilt R | Cook Political Report: Lean R | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Lean R
Michigan: After narrowly winning reelection by less than two percent of the vote in 2020, Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) is retiring. The Democratic primary to succeed him is already competitive. The field includes Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, former Michigan House Speaker Joe Tate, and Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed. While the GOP primary was expected to be competitive, President Trump’s endorsement of former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-MI) has cleared the field, making Rogers the likely Republican nominee. Michigan went for President Trump in 2024. The state tends to be more competitive on the federal level, but Democratic candidates have historically overperformed during midterms. This Michigan Senate seat will likely go to the Democratic nominee, though the margin of victory could be narrow.
Election Forecasts:
Inside Elections: Tossup | Cook Political Report: Tossup | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Tossup
Minnesota: Sen. Tina Smith (D-MN) is retiring. Democratic nominee Harris won Minnesota by just four percent in 2024, despite Gov. Tim Walz appearing on the ticket as her running mate. The two candidates running in the Democratic primary are moderate Rep. Angie Craig (D-MN) and progressive Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan. On the Republican side, declared candidates include former National Basketball Association (NBA) player Royce White and former Navy SEAL Adam Schwarze. State Sen. Julia Coleman, state Rep. Kristin Robbins, and broadcast journalist Michelle Tafoya are also considering bids in the GOP primary. While this is an open race, and Minnesota can get competitive, the last time Minnesota elected a Republican statewide was in 2002. For now, this trend seems unlikely to change.
Election Forecasts:
Inside Elections: Likely D | Cook Political Report: Lean D | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Lean D
North Carolina: After serving two terms and narrowly winning reelection in 2020 by just under two percent, Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) is retiring. He was already considered vulnerable after he was censured by the North Carolina GOP for his support for the Respect for Marriage Act. Sen. Tillis confirmed his decision to retire after voting against President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill. Already in the Republican primary is attorney Don Brown, who has been endorsed by former Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson. Republican National Committee (RNC) Treasurer Michael Whatley also jumped into the race after President Trump’s daughter-in-law Lara Trump announced she would not run. Michelle Morrow, a nurse and Republican nominee for Superintendent of Public Instruction in 2024, is also considering a bid. On the Democratic side, former Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-NC) announced his candidacy but withdrew after former Gov. Roy Cooper entered the race. The open seat, a strong Democratic candidate, and historical trends that favor the minority party in midterm elections make the North Carolina Senate race a true tossup.
Election Forecasts:
Inside Elections: Tossup | Cook Political Report: Tossup | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Tossup
Ohio: Sen. Jon Husted (R-OH), who was appointed to the Ohio Senate seat vacated by Vice President JD Vance, is gearing up for a special election to serve the remainder of the term for this seat. Former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), who lost his seat last cycle to Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-OH) and has been seen as a top recruit for Democrats, has now officially launched a comeback bid. This candidacy has energized Democrats, who seek to return a Democrat to statewide office. Brown last won election to the Senate in 2018, and the political landscape has changed immensely since then. How this contest shapes up in a state that has been trending red remains to be seen, especially now that there is a strong Democratic candidate in the race.
Election Forecasts:
Inside Elections: Lean R | Cook Political Report: Lean R | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Lean R
Texas: Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) is running for his fifth term after winning reelection by roughly 10 percent in 2020. He is already facing a tough primary challenge from the right by Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who leads in primary polling by double digits. Amongst Democrats, 2024 Senate nominee and former Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX) and former astronaut Terry Virts are running. State Rep. James Talarico and former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX) are also thought to be laying groundwork to enter the Democratic primary. If Paxton were to win the Republican nomination, it is widely believed this race could become very competitive given Paxton’s scandals and unfavorability with the general electorate. If not, this race would be more of a longshot for Democrats, though nothing can be ruled out in the current political environment.
Election Forecasts:
Inside Elections: Likely R | Cook Political Report: Likely R | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Likely R
Conclusion
There are many other 2026 Senate races that could become competitive pending additional retirements and certain candidates entering key contests. For example, if Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin opts to run for Senate against incumbent Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA), Republicans may have a shot at picking up Virginia. Democrats are also hoping to make inroads with their top recruits, such as former Rep. Mary Peltola (D-AK) to compete with incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan (D-AK); former Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) to challenge Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT); and former Gov. John Bel Edwards to mount a challenge to Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA). Democrats may also explore the possibility of running party-aligned independents to become competitive for seats that they might otherwise be unable to flip, with Nebraska independent Dan Osborn specifically in their sights to challenge incumbent Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-NE).
To be clear, the 2026 Senate map favors Republicans. Though with their successes in recruiting their preferred candidates for key races, for example in Ohio and North Carolina and perhaps more states in the future, midterm trends that favor the opposition party, and the likelihood that voters see 2026 as a referendum on the Trump Administration, Democrats could outperform expectations.