Outlook on the 2026 House of Representatives Elections
The House Map and Electoral State of Play
All 435 House of Representatives seats are up in 2026. The House's current composition is 219 Republicans to 212 Democrats, with four vacant seats that will be filled by special elections this year. Three of these seats were held by Democrats and the fourth was held by a Republican. Barring any surprises, none of these seats is expected to flip.
Since the start of the 119th Congress, the very narrow GOP majority has created a difficult environment for legislating, with House Republican leadership forced to bring together the far right and moderate wings of the party to pass legislation. House Republicans are hoping the outcomes of the midterm elections, which could be swayed in their favor because of redistricting, will increase wiggle room.
Democrats, on the other hand, need to flip just three seats to win back the House and regain a majority that could provide a check on the Trump Administration. Recent generic ballot polling shows Democrats with a narrow lead, but anything can change over the course of the next year. Democratic overperformance in the 2025 off-year elections could be a bellwether for next year’s midterms.
So far, 21 Members, including eight Democrats and 13 Republicans, have announced their retirements, a modern record this far out from Election Day. Notable retirements include House Homeland Security Committee Chair Mark Green (R-TN), who vacated his seat after voting for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and House Agriculture Committee Ranking Member Angie Craig (D-MN). Of the Members who have indicated they will not return in the 120th Congress, 17 are running for higher office. Additional retirement announcements are expected in the coming months.
In 2024, 13 House Democrats won in districts carried by President Donald Trump compared to three Republicans who were elected in districts won by Democratic nominee then-Vice President Kamala Harris. These crossover districts will be prime targets by both parties to flip or defend.
There are many issues that will impact these races. Some voters will go to the ballot box to make known their approval or dissatisfaction with the current administration. The tax cuts and Medicaid reforms included in Republicans’ reconciliation bill make for likely Democratic campaign fodder. Whether Republicans can spin the One Big Beautiful Bill to their advantage, or if Democrats can make gains on unpopular aspects of the bill, remains to be seen.
Current Ratings for Races to Watch
Alaska’s At-Large Congressional District: Rep. Nick Begich (R-AK) was first elected in 2024, beating then-incumbent Democrat Rep. Mary Peltola by just two percent. Rep. Begich holds the infamous Begich last name typically associated with Alaska Democrats and has already secured President Trump’s endorsement in the 2026 cycle. While she has not yet declared, former Rep. Peltola has publicly expressed interest in a rematch, especially after her narrow loss, which saw her overperform Democratic nominee Harris by nearly ten percent. Alaska utilizes ranked choice voting, which could make this race even tighter. If former Rep. Peltola chooses not to run, this race becomes significantly less competitive.
Election Forecasts:
Inside Elections: Likely R | Cook Political Report: Likely R | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Likely R
Arizona’s 1st Congressional District: Rep. David Schweikert (R-AZ), a founding member of the Freedom Caucus, won reelection by three percent in 2024. He has sought to moderate his image in recent years after facing competitive elections, taking positions in opposition to the Arizona Supreme Court’s near total abortion ban and in support of medical cannabis for veterans. The Democratic primary is once again crowded, with major candidates including 2024 Democratic runner-up and former State Rep. Amish Shah, businessman Jonathan Treble, news anchor Marlene Galan-Woods, Democratic National Committee (DNC) member Mark Gordon, and media firm owner Rick McCartney. Rep. Schweikert leads all his potential challengers in fundraising, reporting $1.6 million in the second quarter, while the mainly self-funded Treble reported $1 million and Galan-Woods reported $531,000. While this district was trending Democratic, 2024 saw a shift to the right, especially with Hispanic voters, which makes rating this race difficult. Rep Schweikert’s incumbency and cash advantage should help him, but his challenges could also receive a boost should there be a national Democratic wave.
Election Forecasts:
Inside Elections: Tilt R | Cook Political Report: Tossup | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Tossup
Arizona’s 6th Congressional District: Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-AZ), who won reelection by two percent, has generally aligned with mainstream GOP politics, including voting for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, though he has taken a handful of moderate positions, such as criticizing Republican plans to cut Social Security. The Democratic field to challenge Rep. Ciscomani is growing, but most of the energy and endorsements appear to favor JoAnna Mendoza, former veteran services representative for former Rep. Tom O’Halleran (D-AZ). Rep. Ciscomani raised $2.3 million last quarter, while Mendoza raised roughly $1.3 million. The candidates will face off in a border district comprised of nearly 25 percent Hispanic voters, so Trump Administration actions on immigration and economy could be a major factor in determining the outcome in this tossup race.
Election Forecasts:
Inside Elections: Tossup | Cook Political Report: Tossup | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Tossup
California’s 13th Congressional District: Rep. Adam Gray (D-CA) was first elected in 2024 by a squeaker margin of 0.08 percent. Rep. Gray has filed paperwork to run for reelection but has yet to officially announce. Despite this, he has already been endorsed by End Citizens United and Reproductive Freedom for All and raised $1.2 million last quarter. California has top two runoff jungle primaries. All candidates, regardless of party affiliation, run in the primary and the top two advance to be the candidates in the general. Former Democratic Rep. John Duarte (R-CA) has declined a rematch and instead endorsed Republican challenger and Mayor of Ceres Javier Lopez. So far, Lopez has only raised $71,000. Rep. Gray’s incumbency and the lack of a formidable challenger could boost his chances and pull him across the finish line again. This is also a seat that could be impacted by mid-cycle redistricting that would almost certainly shore up more Democratic support in the district. If California Democrats are successful in their redistricting push, it would likely make this race less competitive.
Election Forecasts:
Inside Elections: Tossup | Cook Political Report: Tossup | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Tossup
California’s 22nd Congressional District: Winning last year by almost seven percent, Rep. David Valadao (R-CA) has come to be seen as a consistent overperformer in this 73 percent Hispanic district, likely due to his moderate approach and being one of the two remaining Republican Members of Congress who voted to impeach President Trump for inciting an insurrection. Since that vote, the president has declined to endorse him. Rep. Valadao faced a serious primary challenge from the right last year, though his challenger ultimately fell short in the jungle primary system. While he has yet to declare his candidacy, Rep. Valadao has filed to run. His 2024 Democratic challenger Rudy Salas has also filed paperwork indicating that he intends to enter the race. Officially declared Democratic candidates include State Assemblymember Jasmeet Baines and Visalia School Board Member Randy Villegas. Assemblymember Baines has the endorsement of local unions and eight Members of the California Congressional delegation, while Villegas is endorsed by Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) and the California Working Families Party. This is another district that is likely to become more Democratic if redistricting takes place in California. Regardless, the race is expected to be competitive, and Rep. Valadao has proven he cannot be underestimated.
Election Forecasts:
Inside Elections: Lean R Cook Political Report: Lean R Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Lean R
California’s 40th Congressional District: Rep. Young Kim (R-CA) won this district handily in 2024 by ten percent, compared to the two percent with which President Trump carried the district. The congresswoman has made a name for herself as a bipartisan lawmaker. She is also a strong fundraiser, raising $3.3 million last quarter, one of the largest hauls of any House Member. Many Democrats are lining up to challenge Rep. Kim, particularly as the national electorate shifts towards Democrats and there is growing potential for the district to become bluer with mid-decade redistricting. Notable declared candidates include 2024 Democratic runner-up and retired Orange County Fire Captain Joe Kerr, art dealer Esther Kim Varet, former Chino Valley School Board Member Christina Gagnier, nonprofit executive Nina Linh, and labor organizer Perry Meade. So far, Varet leads the Democratic field in fundraising, pulling in $1.6 million last quarter, primarily through self-financing. Even if the district becomes more Democratic, Rep. Kim continues to have a track record of overperformance, and the race will remain competitive.
Election Forecasts:
Inside Elections: Lean R | Cook Political Report: Lean R | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Lean R
California’s 41st Congressional District: Rep. Ken Calvert (R-CA) won his last reelection by three percent, less than President Trump’s victory in the district by nearly six percent. While the congressman has been a traditional conservative for most of his career, he has shifted on issues like LGBTQ+ rights as the inclusion of Palm Springs now has his district trending blue. So far, Rep. Calvert has attracted 11 challengers in this swing district, including Republican healthcare executive Cody Weibelhaus. Democrats have plenty of candidates, including former Norco City Councilor Katherine Aleman, lawyer Anuj Dixit, President of the Nuview Union School Board Abel Chavez, and organizer Brandon Riker. Rep. Calvert has a commanding lead in fundraising, pulling in $2.6 million last quarter, while of the other candidates who have reported numbers, Riker raised $914,000 and Dixit raised $302,000. President Trump has yet to endorse Rep. Calvert, which could be critical to him consolidating the Republican vote. Potential redistricting in California could also result in a stronger district for Democrats, completely upending this race.
Election Forecasts:
Inside Elections: Lean R | Cook Political Report: Lean R | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Lean R
California’s 45th Congressional District: Freshman Rep. Derek Tran (D-CA) won by a narrow 0.2 percent over former Republican Rep. Michelle Steel (R-CA) in the last cycle. The congressman has yet to officially declare his candidacy, but has filed paperwork with the FEC and raised $1.3 million last quarter. On the Republican side, no one has declared or expressed interest, with former Rep. Steel declining a rematch. While this is a competitive race on paper, Republicans need to find a candidate soon.
Election Forecasts:
Inside Elections: Tossup | Cook Political Report: Tossup | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Tossup
Colorado’s 8th Congressional District: First elected in 2024, Rep. Gabe Evans (R-CO) flipped this seat red by a narrow margin of 0.8 percent. President Trump’s margin of victory in the district in the last cycle was 1.8 percent. No Republican has declared against Rep. Evans, and President Trump has endorsed him, likely clearing the field. Democratic challengers include Colorado State Treasurer Dave Young, former U.S. Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-CO), State Reps. Shannon Bird and Manny Rutinel, and former President of the Colorado Education Association Amie Baca-Oehlert. Baca-Oehlert has the support of the Colorado and National Education Associations along and the Working Families Party. Rep. Bird has the backing of the state house speaker and former state senate leader. Rutinel has the support of former Sen. Gary Hart (D-CO). Reps. Evans and Rutinel both raised $1.6 million in the second quarter. Given how closely contested this seat was in 2022 and 2024, and the DCCC’s focus on a Democratic pickup in 2026, this race will be one to watch.
Election Forecasts:
Inside Elections: Tossup | Cook Political Report: Tossup | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Tossup
Iowa’s 1st Congressional District: Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA) has served since 2020 and was last reelected in 2024 by just 0.2 percent, compared to the eight percent by which President Trump won the district. She is no stranger to close races, winning her 2020 race by just six votes, the closest House election in decades. This has made Rep. Miller-Meeks vulnerable to both Republican and Democratic challengers. In her pursuit of reelection, Rep. Miller-Meeks is seeing a primary rematch against ministry founder David Pautsch. In 2024, Pautsch lost by just 12 percent of the vote, despite being outraised 83-1. Democrats have a formidable bench of declared candidates, including 2024 nominee and former State Rep. Christina Bohannan and former State Rep. Bob Krause. While Rep. Miller-Meeks has had moderate views on some issues in the past, primary challenges from the right have forced her to become more consistent on party-line issues. Rep. Miller-Meeks has raised over $2.3 million so far, outpacing Democratic challenger Bohannan’s approximate $800,000, but money does not seem to matter as much in this district where Rep. Miller-Meeks consistently underperforms. A recent Democratic-aligned poll showed Bohannan narrowly ahead of the congresswoman, though there is a long time to go before the general election.
Election Forecasts:
Inside Elections: Tossup | Cook Political Report: Tossup | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Tossup
Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District: First elected in 2022, Rep. Zach Nunn (R-IA) was last reelected by almost four percent in 2024, slightly below President Trump’s performance in the district. After considering a run for governor, Rep. Nunn announced he would seek a third term in the House. He has already secured President Trump’s endorsement, making him the likely Republican nominee. The Democratic field has lined up strong candidates including State House Minority Leader Jennifer Konfrst, State Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott, and voice actor Xavier Carrigan. The primary is shaping up to be a contest between Sen. Garriott and Rep. Konfrst, with Sen. Garriott raking in $520,000 in the second quarter, and Rep. Konfrst attracting support from over 20 state representatives and senators and pulling in $251,000 in the same period. While still early, these fundraising numbers lag far behind Rep. Nunn’s approximate $1.6 million war chest, showing a serious cash advantage over his challengers. This race will likely attract greater attention and become more competitive as Democrats pick their nominee. The contest could present a rare pickup opportunity for Democrats in Republican-trending Iowa.
Election Forecasts:
Inside Elections: Lean R | Cook Political Report: Lean R | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Tossup
Michigan’s 4th Congressional District: Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-MI) was first elected in 2010 and reelected in 2024 by 11 percent. This was a considerable overperformance given that President Trump won the district by just five percent. Rep. Huizenga initially considered running for Senate in 2026 but announced in July that he would not. His formal decision to run for reelection to the House is expected later this year. In the meantime, many Democrats have declared their intention to run. The Democratic field includes State Sen. Sean McCann, attorney Jessica Schwartz, former legislative correspondent Diop Harris, and cybersecurity professional Richard Aaron. Rep. Huizenga has a moderate war chest of $1.3 million, and a proven history of overperformance. However, this blue-trending district went for Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) in 2022, and with strong Democratic candidates in the race, this seat could be in play.
Election Forecasts:
Inside Elections: Likely R | Cook Political Report: Likely R | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Likely R
Michigan’s 7th Congressional District: Freshman Rep. Tom Barrett (R-MI) flipped this district red in 2024 by just shy of four percent. President Trump carried this same district by just over one percent. On the Democratic side, the field includes former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine and Slovakia Bridget Brink, ex-Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam, and Professor Josh Cowen. Since Rep. Barrett is not an entrenched incumbent, and this is a swing district, a more favorable environment to the Democrats could see this district flip back to blue. Rep. Barrett raised nearly $2 million in the second quarter, showing that he will not give up this seat without a fight, and whoever wins will do so narrowly.
Election Forecasts:
Inside Elections: Tossup | Cook Political Report: Tossup | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Tossup
Michigan’s 10th Congressional District: Rep. John James (R-MI) was first elected in 2022, and most recently reelected by six percent of the vote. However, the outcome of the last cycle was viewed as an underperformance by Rep. James, as President Trump carried the district by 6.5 percent of the vote. Rep. James announced in April that he would instead run for governor. Macomb County Assistant Prosecuting Attorney Robert Lulgjuraj announced he would run for the Congressional seat in August. The Democratic field is crowded. It includes attorney Eric Chung, Mayor of Pontiac Tim Greimel, Army Veteran Alex Hawkins, and prosecutor Christina Hines. Institutional support remains split among the Democratic candidates as their fundraising numbers remain in the hundreds of thousands. This is a GOP leaning district, but there are decent Democratic candidates, and Republicans have yet to identify their preferred nominee. Once Republicans have a field of their own, it may become easier to make predictions in this competitive race.
Election Forecasts:
Inside Elections: Tilt R | Cook Political Report: Lean R | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Tossup
Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District: First elected to the House in 2016, Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) announced his retirement in June. Republicans declared to succeed him include Omaha City Councilor Brinker Harding and former state Sen. Brett Lindstrom. The Democratic field loomed large even before Rep. Bacon’s retirement announcement. It includes State Sen. John Cavanaugh, Douglas County District Court Clerk Crystal Rhoades, candidate training group founder Denise Powell, retired navy veteran Kishla Askins, and ophthalmologist Mark Johnston. An open seat in a district won by Democratic nominee Harris in 2024 by four percent, coupled with the retirement of the popular moderate Republican incumbent, make this district a possible pickup opportunity for Democrats.
Election Forecasts:
Inside Elections: Tossup | Cook Political Report: Lean D | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Lean D
New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District: Winning reelection last year by five percent, Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-NJ) comes from a Republican family dynasty in the Garden State. He has balanced his support for moderate solutions on some issues with his votes for Republican-led priorities. Democrats have lined up to challenge Rep. Kean. The list of potential challengers includes ex-Navy pilot Rebecca Bennett, former U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) advisor Megan O’Rourke, former Summit Councilor Greg Vartan, former U.S. Surgeon General advisor Tina Shah, Chair of the Morris County Hispanic Caucus Brian Varela, and former Small Business Administration (SBA) chief of staff Michael Roth. Rep. Kean leads his challengers in fundraising, pulling in $1.9 million last quarter, while Bennett leads Democrats with $914,000, followed by Varela with $694,000 and Roth with $303,000 among those who reported. No major endorsements have been made in this race so far. This contest between a strong incumbent and an energized field of Democratic candidates make this race one to watch.
Election Forecasts:
Inside Elections: Tilt R | Cook Political Report: Lean R |Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Tossup
New York’s 17th Congressional District: Rep. Michael Lawler (R-NY) won reelection last year by six percent, a significant overperformance as Democratic nominee Harris carried his district by less than one percent. Rep. Lawler has made a name for himself in Congress and honed a reputation of working across the aisle. Democrats have heavily targeted this district, and the crowded primary includes former Briarcliff Manor Peter Chatzky, Rockland County legislator Beth Davidson, former Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) senior advisor Cait Conley, nonprofit CEO Jessica Reinmann, WNYW reporter Mike Sacks, former Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) analyst John Sullivan, and Tarrytown Village trustee Effie Phillips-Staley. Former Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-NY) endorsed Davidson. Rep. Lawler raised $2.8 million last quarter, while the Democratic challengers are divided on fundraising, with Davidson leading the pack with $855,000. This race will likely come down to the endorsements of local rabbis in Rockland, who tend to determine the outcomes of Congressional races, and whether Rep. Lawler can push his bipartisan brand above increasing polarization.
Election Forecasts:
Inside Elections: Tossup | Cook Political Report: Lean R | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: No rating
Pennsylvania’s 7th Congressional District: Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-PA) flipped this district red by a margin of one percent last year. This was a slight underperformance as President Trump won the district by 3.2 percent. Rep. Mackenzie has already received the president’s endorsement. The Democratic field is forming. So far, it includes former Federal Prosecutor Ryan Crosswell, Northampton County Executive Lamont McClure, former member of the Pennsylvania Advisory Committee on Latino Affairs Carol Obando-Derstine, and Lehigh County Controller Mark Pinsley. President of the Pennsylvania Professional Firefighters Association Bob Brooks is also considering a run. Rep. Mackenzie raised roughly $1.5 million during the second quarter, while Democrats fell a bit flat, with none raising more than $325,000. With popular Gov. Josh Shapiro also on the ballot next year, the Democratic candidate could receive a boost in this this tossup district.
Election Forecasts:
Inside Elections: Tossup | Cook Political Report: Tossup | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Tossup
Pennsylvania’s 8th Congressional District: Freshman Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-PA) flipped this district red by a margin of 1.6 percent in 2024, a major underperformance compared to President Trump’s victory by 8.5 percent. Rep. Bresnahan has yet to officially declare his candidacy but has filed paperwork to run and received President Trump’s endorsement. Rep. Bresnahan has come under fire in recent months for flip-flopping his support for the One Big Beautiful Bill and his high volume of stock trades after previously campaigning on banning Members of Congress from trading stocks. No Democratic candidates have officially declared, but State Rep. Bridget Malloy Kosierowski and Mayor of Pittston Michael Lombardo have expressed interest. Rep. Bresnahan has raised roughly $1.7 million last quarter, meaning that the longer that Democrats wait to jump in, the easier it could be for Rep. Bresnahan to maximize his odds of winning in his lean red district.
Election Forecasts:
Inside Elections: Lean R | Cook Political Report: Lean R | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Lean R
Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District: While President Trump won this district by five percent last year, Rep. Scott Perry (R-PA) was last elected by a narrow margin of 1.2 percent. Former Chair of the House Freedom Caucus, Rep. Perry is known for being right-wing on many issues, from endorsing the Great Replacement theory to attempting to overturn the results of the 2020 election. After a close race in 2024, Democrats are now hoping to flip this district blue with 2024 runner-up and former WGAL news anchor Janelle Stelton seeking a rematch. So far, she is the only declared candidate. During the second quarter, Rep. Perry raised a considerable $1.5 million, and Stelton declared after the deadline. While on paper this is a lean Republican district, Rep. Perry is not a moderate, and it remains to be seen if he can hold his own in this election.
Election Forecasts:
Inside Elections: Tilt R | Cook Political Report: Tossup | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Tossup
Virginia’s 1st Congressional District: Rep. Rob Wittman (R-VA) won reelection by 12 percent last year, besting President Trump’s victory by almost five percent. Democrats believe this blue-trending district is fertile ground for a Democratic pickup. Announced Democratic candidates include corporate chief of staff Lisa Vedernikova-Khanna, Chesterfield County Court Clerk Amanda Pohl, attorney Andrew Luchetti, and lawyer Melvin Tull. While traditionally a Republican leaning district, the blue shifting Richmond suburbs could finally catch up to Rep. Wittman, who has previously been seen as safe in his seat for decades.
Election Forecasts:
Inside Elections: Likely R | Cook Political Report: Likely R | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: No rating
Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District: Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-VA) won reelection in 2024 by three percent. At the presidential level, this was one of the closest districts in the nation last year, with President Trump winning the district by just 0.2 percent. Rep. Kiggans is running in the midterms and has already secured an endorsement from the president. Democrats are heavily targeting this seat. Rep. Kiggans is a formidable fundraiser, raising over $2 million dollars last quarter while attempting to portray herself as a moderate Republican. This race is likely to remain close, especially with Virginia Democrats becoming more engaged.
Election Forecasts:
Inside Elections: Tossup | Cook Political Report: Lean R | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: No rating
Washington’s 3rd Congressional District: First elected in 2022, Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-WA) was reelected in 2024 by a margin of three percent, slightly overperforming President Trump. Washington has top two jungle primaries. Rep. Gluesenkamp Perez has filed paperwork to seek reelection, and Democratic site supervisor Brent Henrich, Republican oyster farm owner Antony Barran, and Republilcan Minority Leader of the Washington State Senate John Braun have announced candidacies to challenge her. Rep. Gluesenkamp Perez is a moderate Democrat, siding with Republicans on the Laken Riley Act and the SAVE Act. This Blue Dog Democrat is going to have to fight to hold her red leaning rural district.
Election Forecasts:
Inside Elections: Tilt D | Cook Political Report: Tossup | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: No rating
Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District: First elected in 2022, Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-WI) was reelected by two percent in 2024. Historically a Democratic district, this area in Wisconsin has shifted to the right, and President Trump carried the district by seven percent last year. Rep. Van Orden has announced he will seek reelection. On the Democratic side, candidates include 2024 nominee Rebecca Cooke, Eau Claire City Council President Emily Berge, and former Eau Claire City Councilor Laura Benjamin. Cooke has raised the most money out of any House challenger in the country so far, nearing $2 million last quarter, and has been endorsed by both the Blue Dog PAC and progressive Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT). Rep. Van Orden has similarly been a good fundraiser, raking in over $2.3 million in the second quarter, but has been riddled with scandals, from publicly accosting Senate pages, posting falsehoods about the 2025 Minnesota assassinations on social media, and attending the January 6 insurrection. Although this is a red district, if Cooke becomes the Democratic nominee again and replicates her previous overperformance in a better environment for national Democrats, there is a real chance this seat could flip.
Election Forecasts:
Inside Elections: Tilt R | Cook Political Report: Tossup | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Tossup
Conclusion
It remains way too early to predict how control and makeup of the House will change as a result of the 2026 elections. With a shrinking number of tossup seats, Democrats could be challenged to pick up the few seats needed to flip the House majority in their favor. However, historical trends suggest the party in power is likely to lose seats in the midterms. Of course, a lot could change between now and November 2026, and President Trump’s popularity and the level of electoral enthusiasm at the time voters cast their ballots will be major factors. Regardless, our instincts are that the few genuinely competitive races identified above will likely impact control of the House and the legislative agenda for the 120th Congress.