Outlook on the 2025/2026 Elections: Special and Off-Year Elections
As part of Plurus Strategies’ ongoing series on the outlook for the 2025 and 2026 elections, this piece dives into the first referendum on the second Trump Administration: the fall 2025 special and off-year elections.
While there have already been a few noteworthy election results this year – from Democrats picking up a Trump-supportive State Senate seat in Pennsylvania, to the Elon Musk-backed candidate losing in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race – the gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey, special elections for vacant House seats, and mayoral elections in some of the largest cities in America may provide invaluable insights into how voters are feeling about the direction of the country ahead of the midterms.
Plurus Strategies previously identified the policy and political matters most likely to impact voter sentiment in upcoming elections. Anticipated motivating issues for voters include the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, with its sweeping changes to U.S. taxes and Medicaid; foreign affairs, with the ongoing conflicts in Israel/Gaza and Iran; and immigration, with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids continuing across the country.
Whether 2025 races will show Democrats’ ability to capitalize on the unpopularity of President Donald Trump and Republicans' handling of these issues remains to be seen. However, with control of the House in the balance in 2026, all eyes are on this November for hints as to how the midterm elections might go.
Gubernatorial Races
New Jersey: After serving two terms, incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy (D-NJ) is term-limited. The primaries were expensive and competitive, and the general election will be a matchup between Rep. Mikie Sherill (D-NJ) and Jack Ciattarelli (R-NJ), the latter of whom mounted a challenge to Gov. Murphy in 2021. New Jersey is a lean blue state. Former Vice President Kamala Harris won the state by almost six percent in 2024, and Gov. Murphy won by three percent in his re-election bid. However, President Trump’s popularity is increasing in the state, and historically, New Jersey has not elected the same party to the governor’s mansion for more than two terms since 1965. Nevertheless, the Democratic candidate is favored to win this fall.
Election Forecasts:
Inside Elections: Lean D | Cook Political Report: Lean D | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Lean D
Virginia: Incumbent Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) is term-limited after serving one term. The general election will see former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) face Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears (R-VA). While the commonwealth went to Gov. Youngkin by almost two percent of the vote in 2021, Vice President Harris won by almost six percent in 2024. Virginia is still considered a lean blue state, and if the trend continues, Rep. Spanberger has the slight advantage. Regardless, the winner of this election will become Virginia’s first female governor.
Election Forecasts:
Inside Elections: Tilt D | Cook Political Report: Lean D | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Lean D
Special Elections for the House of Representatives
Eight months into the 119th Congress, the House of Representatives has seen six vacancies. In April, two special elections were held in Florida to replace former Reps. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) and Mike Waltz (R-FL), both of whom departed in hopes of joining the Trump Administration. Despite these seats being deep red – President Trump won Gaetz’s 1st Congressional District by 37 percent and Waltz’s 6th Congressional District by 30 percent – these races got national attention as the first check on the new administration’s policies. In the end, the makeup of these districts was too much for Democrats Gay Valimont and Josh Weil to overcome. However, the two candidates significantly overperformed and only lost by 15 percent and 14 percent, respectively. Republicans Jimmy Patronis and Randy Fine were elected to Congress, but only after the GOP invested notable time and resources. GOP weakness in these low-turnout elections could be a warning sign, especially as Democrats became higher-propensity voters at a time when Congressional majorities are slim. Attention now turns to special elections for four remaining vacant seats.
Virginia’s 11th Congressional District: Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-VA) passed away in May following a battle with esophageal cancer, after previously announcing his intent not to seek re-election in the midterms. Democrats held a firehouse primary in June to pick their nominee, and the late congressman’s former Chief of Staff and Fairfax County Supervisor James Walkinshaw was selected as the nominee. In their own firehouse primary on the same date, Republicans tapped government relations professional Stewart Wilson. The district, comprising most of Fairfax County, is solidly blue, with Vice President Harris winning by 34 percent of the vote last year. The special election will be held September 9.
Election Forecasts:
Inside Elections: Solid D | Cook Political Report: Solid D | Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid D
Arizona’s 7th Congressional District: Following the death of long-time Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ), this district comprising nearly all of Arizona’s southern border with Mexico is open for the first time in 23 years. The late congressman’s daughter, former Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva, easily won the July Democratic primary, besting influencer Deja Foxx and Daniel Hernández Jr., a staffer to former Rep. Gabby Giffords (D-AZ). While the media aimed focus on Foxx’s bid as a member of Gen Z who relied heavily on social media – hoping to echo progressive wins in other parts of the country – Grijalva won the endorsements of established progressive Members including Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY). Grijalva now faces Daniel Butierez, who was the 2024 Republican nominee for the seat, on September 23. Democrats hold the advantage in this race. Vice President Harris won the district by 22 percent last year.
Election Forecasts:
Not yet available.
Texas’ 18th Congressional District: A freshman who succeeded Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-TX) following her death last year, Rep. Silvester Turner (D-TX) died in March due to health complications. There is a crowded nonpartisan election this fall for the urban Houston district. Democratic candidates include former Houston City Councilor Amanda Edwards, State Rep. Jolanda Jones, consultant Isiaiah Martin, President of the Southern Christian Leadership Conference (SCLC) Robert Slater, and outgoing Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee. Menefee has secured endorsements from several Members of the Texas delegation. Republicans seeking the seat include former Miss Venezuela Carmen Maria Montiel and musician Cyrus Sajna. Reyna Anderson, the former advisor to the Holy See Mission to the U.N., and George Foreman IV, the son of boxer George Foreman, are also running as third party candidates. Vice President Harris won the district by almost 40 percent in 2024. The seat is expected to go to the Democrat who wins a majority of the vote in the November 4 jungle primary.
Election Forecasts:
Not yet available.
Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District: After the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, Rep. Mark Green (R-TX) announced his intent to resign in July. There is a crowded race to replace him. On the Republican side, candidates include State Reps. Jody Barrett, Gino Bulso, and Lee Reeves; Montgomery County Commissioner Jason Knight; former Commissioner of the Tennessee Department of General Services Matt Van Epps; and veteran Jon Thorp. This is a solidly Republican district in central Tennessee, and it went for President Trump by 22 percent in 2024. However, Democrats’ recent overperformance in special elections in Florida could make this race competitive, particularly given Democrats’ success in recruiting strong candidates. Officially declared Democratic candidates include State Reps. Aftyn Behn, Vincent Dixie, and Bo Mitchell. The primary election will take place on October 7, and the general election will be held December 2.
Election Forecasts:
Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Likely R
Key Mayoral Contests
While most eyes are on the federal and statewide elections this fall, voters are also heading to the ballot box to decide several major mayoral races. Most of these cities heavily favor Democrats but how Democratic candidates perform during the first year of the second Trump Administration could be indicative of what voters are feeling. Candidates gearing up for the midterms will be watching for potential upsets, particularly in primary challenges, over their age or ideological positions. In addition to mayoral contests Albuquerque, Atlanta, Detroit, Miami, Minneapolis, New Orleans, and Seattle, three significant races could serve as bellwethers for shifts in political dynamics.
New York City, New York: Incumbent Mayor Eric Adams is seeking reelection to a second term, this time opting to run as an independent. This decision by the mayor left the Democratic primary wide open, creating a crowded field. The Democratic nomination was ultimately won by State Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani in a major upset to the party establishment. After coming in second, former Gov. Andrew Cuomo decided to run in the general election on the third party ballot line “Fight and Deliver.” Republicans have renominated their 2021 nominee Curtis Sliwa, and former assistant U.S. Attorney Jim Walden is running as an independent. While the city is traditionally liberal and deep blue, the race is polling close due to Mamdani being perceived as too far left and the inclusion of multiple independents with strong bases of support. Mamdani may have the backing of Democratic primary voters, but the general election will show if this style of politics can win in the general.
Boston, Massachusetts: Incumbent Democratic Mayor Michelle Wu is seeking a second term, after a tenure of implementing robust progressive policies in Beantown. So far, the only challenger she has attracted is Josh Kraft, son of New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft, who is waging a Democratic primary challenge. Kraft has claimed the mayor has taken the city too far left, but in a city as Democratic as Boston, her policies of free public transit, expanding affordable housing, and parental leave all seem to have resonated with Bostonians. Mayor Wu has a positive +19 percent approval rating, one of the highest of an elected leader in the state, and Kraft is widely expected to be unsuccessful in his challenge to unseat her. Still, like in New York City, analysts are watching for anything revealing about the role of progressive politics and candidates with easily recognizable family members.
Buffalo, New York: Byron Brown, the former mayor for almost two decades, resigned in 2024 to take a private sector job. He left the field wide open in the upcoming election in a city already riddled with political turmoil. The Democratic primary held in June saw State Sen. Sean Ryan, backed by the progressive wing, defeat acting Mayor Christopher Scanlon, backed by more moderate establishment leaders. After disagreements with the Erie County Democratic Party’s endorsement process, Buffalo ReUse founder Michael Gainer is running as an independent. Republicans nominated James Gardner, the Erie County Assistant Attorney. While Buffalo is a relatively Democratic city, a Republican has not been on the mayoral ballot since 2013, largely due to their failures at the city-wide level, but the inclusion of Gainer as an independent candidate could make this race interesting. Most local news organizations believe this race is Sen. Ryan’s to lose.