2018 Election Analysis: Priority Issues for a Democratically Controlled House

While the Election Day dust is still settling, it is now certain that Democrats will control the House in the 116th Congress. At this point, it is also clear the House of Representatives will be younger, more female, and more racially diverse. We were up most of the night, not only watching the returns come in, but also thinking about how race outcomes will impact policy priorities in a Democratically controlled House, as this is a significant change from this Congress. For a more granular breakdown, see our slide deck outlining prospective House committee agendas for the new Congress.

Broadly speaking, voter electoral difficulties in Kansas, Georgia, Texas, and North Dakota will put voter protections high on the Democratic priority list for the agenda in the next Congress. So far, elections officials have not uncovered the level of Russian activity we saw in 2016, but attempts to discourage voter participation through social media, misinformation, and other methods mean ballot security and voter protections are likely to be addressed in H.R. 1, an ethics, campaign, and elections reform package. Now in the majority, we expect Democrats to use the first part of next year to advance broad changes to campaign and elections laws and to restore and strengthen enforcement provisions of the Voting Rights Act.

It is our belief the agenda will also be shaped by the interests of new Democratic members of Congress. Due to a record breaking number of women in the incoming freshman class, we anticipate building upon the #MeToo movement, addressing family separations at the border, and bolstering women’s health will be priorities. Since the freshman class was also helped by Millennial voter participation in the elections, we can expect gun control, immigration, net neutrality, the environment, and college affordability to garner additional congressional interest. In other words, because there will be more women and millennials serving in the House, and because women and millennials played an important role in Democrats’ win, we anticipate these groups will help drive the Democratic agenda.

Wielding the speaker’s gavel, Democrats will want to prove they can govern and make good on the promises they made while campaigning. As you know, health care has been a prominent topic on the 2018 campaign trail. Our instinct tells us Democrats will attempt to try to find common ground on the many flavors of a Medicare for All bill. However, we believe first and foremost that Democrats will substantively focus on fixing the Affordable Care Act and stabilizing the healthcare marketplace.

Tax issues are also likely to play a prominent role in the next Congress. Last year, without a single Democratic vote, the GOP-controlled Congress reshaped the tax code, lowering individual tax rates, dropping the corporate tax rate to 21 percent, doubling the estate tax exemption, curtailing some deductions, and readdressing how businesses are taxed. While, in theory, House Democrats could attempt to repeal the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, our view is that Democrats and Republicans are too far apart on central tax policy tenants to enact comprehensive replacement legislation. Further, Democrats may not want to repeal and replace the law because Democrats favor some of the enacted reforms and realize this could be a losing political strategy. Regardless, we expect some changes around the edges, especially on provisions scheduled to expire by the end of next year.

The annual defense authorization, reauthorization of the Highway Bill, legislation to address surprise medical bills, and FY20 appropriations are all potential bipartisan measures for the new Congress. However, before action on these priorities, Congress as a whole will need to secure budget relief from sequestration. As far as appropriations are concerned, for the past two years, Democrats have been in the position of pretty much opposing all riders on appropriations bills. However, now that Democrats will control the House, House Democrats may want to include their own riders in appropriations measures.

Finally, we also believe privacy is a bipartisan issue that will continue to garner congressional attention, potentially resulting in legislation next year.