The 117th Congress and the New Administration: The First 100 Days and Beyond

As we enter the final 24 hours of the Trump presidency, there are a number of dynamics that may shape the policy environment, as well as the legislative and regulatory agendas. It may be wishful thinking, but our instincts lead us to believe the far left and far right extremes in both caucuses could open up opportunities for policy to emerge in the middle, similar to what we saw with the COVID package enacted at the end of last year. In particular, COVID 5.0 and infrastructure are two possibilities for big legislative packages.

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Expiring Provisions and Key Dates to Watch in 2021 and Beyond

Although control of the Senate has yet to be determined and it could take days for the results of tomorrow’s runoff elections in Georgia to be finalized, most political operatives continue to tell us to prepare for a GOP-controlled Senate. While conventional wisdom is that divided government can lead to gridlock, we are optimistic this year will be full of legislative and regulatory action. Given how much was accomplished in the final days of the 116th Congress, thanks in part to bipartisanship and in part to strategic political calculations ahead of the 2022 and 2024 campaign cycles, we are preparing for a busy 2021.

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Post-Election Analysis: Senate and House Committee Musical Chairs

Although Vice President Biden has been declared the winner of the presidential contest, we are still waiting for final results in a number of Congressional races. Our team has been hard at work updating our House and Senate musical chairs analyses to reflect how what we know about the elections results so far will impact committee membership and leadership in the 117th Congress. As the final margins in the Senate and House become clear and we learn more about committee ratios, we plan to update and expand these documents to reflect seats that each party may gain or lose on each committee, as well as members who may be at risk of losing a seat due to changing committee ratios.

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Elections Scenarios Analysis

Here we are just one day before Election Day and, at this point, most major election forecasting organizations are predicting a Biden win and Democrat-controlled Senate. While there are still potential pathways to Republican victories for the presidency and control of the Senate, and 2016 has taught us we can only place so much trust in polling, the reality remains that we are unlikely to know who won control of the White House and the Senate on Election Night. Potential delays, in addition to possible surprises, make it all the more important to begin planning for a range of scenarios.

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